Burma Update
News and updates on Burma17 November 2009
News on Burma - 17/11/09
Suu Kyi seeks meeting with Myanmar junta leader – Aung Hla Tun Global Fund returns to Myanmar with 110 million dollars U.S. asks Myanmar to release Suu Kyi – Jonathan Weisman Guarded hope as Obama engages Myanmar – Shaun Tandon Myanmar’s Suu Kyi’s lawyers file detention appeal – Aung Hla Tun Dhaka restarts India-Burma pipeline talks – Joseph Allchin Clinton says Burmese elections not legitimate without national dialogue – David Gollust Climate change and Aung San Suu Kyi – Aung Zaw The junta’s No 4 unexpectedly resigns – Min Lwin Suu Kyi to release ‘procedure for the nation’ – Htet Aung Kyaw Women arrested for holding Buddhist prayer services for Suu Kyi Mongla refuses to buckle Myanmar Rohingyas swap suppression for squalor – Shafiq Alam The next big step – Kyaw Zwa Moe Junta readies 300,000 troops to eliminate ethnic rebels Nudging the junta toward Democracy – Kyaw Zwa Moe India-Burma transport project to devastate local livelihoods and cultures Land confiscation begins with pipeline project Confusing messages on human rights – Michael J. Green Listen to the dissidents – Jim Hoagland |
09 November 2009
News on Burma - 9/11/09
US envoy snubs pro-government party on Myanmar visit A high-level US delegation visiting Myanmar on an "exploratory" diplomatic mission this week failed to meet with representatives of the pro-junta National Unity Party (NUP), state media reported Friday. US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his deputy in charge of South-East Asian affairs Scot Marciel visited Myanmar on Tuesday and Wednesday on what they called an "exploratory mission" to explain the Washington's new policy of engagement towards the country's pariah regime. The delegation, however, failed to engage with representatives of the NUP and other pro-junta parties, according to state media reports. "Although arrangements have been made for Mr Kurt [Campbell] to meet with central executive committee members of [the] National Unity Party at its headquarters and representatives of the remaining officially registered political parties at the hotel where he put up, he did not meet them," The New Light of Myanmar reported. "Instead, he separately met some persons who are still being scrutinized at the residence of charge d' affairs of [the] US embassy on their own arrangements," the government mouthpiece said. One NUP executive complained that they waiting all day for Campbell to show up. In Bangkok on Thursday, Marciel acknowledged that the USA's new policy of engaging with the notoriously uncooperative Myanmar junta was unlikely to bear swift results. "We're going in to this with our eyes wide open," Marciel said. "Success is far from guaranteed." Past diplomatic efforts to persuade Myanmar's generals to mend their dictatorial ways, either through sanctions as imposed by the US and the European Union, or through the tact of "constructive engagement" as pursued by Asian governments, have failed. The country has been under military rule since 1962, and has kept opposition leader and pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi under house detention for 14 of the past 20 years. Campbell and Marciel met with Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein, Suu Kyi and numerous other government and opposition leaders on their wo-day visit. It as not immediately clear why they save the NUP eaders a miss. Burma needs to industrialize: Than Shwe Burma's military chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe said Burma must industrialize in order to develop, according to the state-run newspaper The New Light of Myamnar on Thursday. "He [Than Shwe] said that indeed, the agro-based country is a developing nation, and if the country would like to be a real developed nation, it must try hard to become an industrialized one," the newspaper said. Than Shwe made his comments during his second visit to Cyclone Nargis-affected areas in Irrawaddy Division. With regard to economic development of the region, the newspaper said, "The Senior General gave guidance, saying it is necessary to strive for exploiting [sic] the natural resources with the use of manpower and utilizing them to raise per capita income." Than Shwe said the meat, fish and salt industries needed developing. "He said that it is necessary to give encouragement to produce salt not only for local consumption but also for industrial raw materials. "[He said that] innovative measures are to be taken for manufacturing of value-added products by extending cold storage and finished goods factories in the meat and fish sector of the region," the newspaper said. "The Senior General stressed the need to collect [sic] the investment based on the current agriculture task [sic] and to establish the country as an industrialized nation," the newspaper said. However, Aung Moe Zaw, chairman for the exiled Democratic Party for New Society said Burma will take a long time to establish an industrialized base because of internal political conflict and strained relations with the international community. "Burma should begin by resolving its political conflicts before trying to develop the nation," he said. A youth member of the National League for Democracy said, "Even though the Burmese authorities use the word 'develop' in projects, it doesn't seem like development because their projects always depend on the use of human resources." A businessman in Rangoon added that much more technological skill would be needed to establish an industrialized base in Burma. Myanmar vote plan clouds new US dialogue – Shaun Tandon Washington, D.C. — US envoys who paid a rare visit to Myanmar say the new dialogue will be slow and cautious, but the junta's plans to hold 2010 elections are casting a shadow that could disrupt the delicate process. Kurt Campbell, the top US diplomat for Asia, and his deputy Scot Marciel spent two days in the country formerly known as Burma, the highest-level US visit since 1995 as part of a new policy of engagement. The State Department duo has been at pains to temper expectations for any breakthrough and warned the junta that the United States will not ease economic sanctions without progress on democracy. But the diplomacy could soon get trickier as the junta prepares elections next year. The last vote in 1990 was swept by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who has since spent most of her time under house arrest. Marciel, speaking in Bangkok on Thursday, called for the election — which some observers believe could be held early in the year — to be fair and to include Aung San Suu Kyi's participation. But the Nobel Peace laureate's National League for Democracy has called for a boycott of the vote, fearing it would be a sham to legitimize the junta which last year pushed through a widely criticized new constitution. "When US officials tell the regime they must include the opposition in credible, free and fair elections, they are missing the key point," said John Dale, a Myanmar expert at George Mason University. "For a long time, the opposition has been organizing a boycott of the election and that's exactly what the regime is trying to overcome — they want as much participation as possible," he said. "The longer the United States engages in dialogue about international monitoring of free and fair elections, the more likely it is that we end up lending legitimacy to the election process itself," he said. But Aung San Suu Kyi has changed tact before. As the United States opened the dialogue, she accepted that actions by the junta could eventually lead to a relaxation of sanctions, an easing of her strong past support of such economic measures. Yet just communicating with her remains difficult. The junta allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to meet Campbell and Marciel at a Yangon luxury hotel, marking the first time she has appeared outside her home and prison since 2003. "I think that role and the attitude of Aung San Suu Kyi is very important to a change in US policy toward Burma," said David Steinberg, a professor at Georgetown University. Steinberg said the junta may try to release Aung San Suu Kyi just before or just after the election. "I don't think that's acceptable to the US, because they want something more," Steinberg said. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have launched a policy of dialogue around the world, with the motto that they will extend a hand to all who "unclench their fist." Senator Jim Webb, a leading proponent of engaging Myanmar who met in August with junta supremo Than Shwe, said he was encouraged by Campbell and Marciel's visit to Myanmar. He said that the administration should take a "step-by-step" approach to encourage Myanmar "to become a responsible member of the world community." "The administration's engagement with the government of Burma is an important step toward improving both US-Burma relations and the living conditions of the Burmese people," he said. But Aung Din, a former political prisoner who heads the US Campaign for Burma advocacy group, said that Obama needed to follow up by raising Myanmar at the highest levels on his upcoming visit to Asia. Obama will hold a summit with Southeast Asian leaders and travel to China, which remains a close commercial and military partner of Myanmar despite the opprobrium for the junta in the West. "I want to be optimistic. But I will wait until President Obama's visit to Asia next week," Aung Din said. "Without strong involvement by President Obama and Secretary Clinton in organizing our neighbors to stand together on Burma, Kurt's mission would not be successful," he said. New report on development in Burma A group of organizations concerned about the ongoing rapid destruction of Burma's natural environment has published a new report which challenges the direction Burma is taking with regard to national development and argues that alternative resource management systems should be considered. The report "Accessible Alternatives: Ethnic Communities' Contribution to Social Development and Environmental Conservation in Burma" by the Burma Environment Working Group consists of nine case studies that describe a variety of issues related to natural resource management in different parts of Burma, including Arakan, Kachin, Karen and Shan States. Through this report, the Burma Environment Working Group exposes the harsh impacts that are inflicted on the environment and the livelihoods of ethnic people by the current development path that Burma's military regime is taking. Ethnic peoples in Burma have long used traditional natural resource management systems that sustain the environment and on which they depend for their livelihoods. In recent years, however, militarization, large-scale resource extraction, and infrastructure development have been destroying the natural environment and threatening these local natural resource management systems. Many local people have had to abandon their homes and livelihoods without compensation and are struggling to survive. The report also describes positive cases in which community-based projects supported by member organizations of the Burma Environment Working Group have helped revive the natural environment through restoration of traditional natural resource management systems. "We wanted to draw attention to the knowledge and practices of ethnic communities that ensure sustainable natural resource management," said Saw Paul Sein Twa, a spokesperson of the Burma Environment Working Group. "If we want to preserve Burma's rich environment for our children, the value of traditional natural resource management methods should be recognized widely, and serious efforts should be made now to restore them where they have been destroyed." The Burma Environment Working Group will launch the report at a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand at 10am on November 5, 2009. * Read the report: US envoys meet Myanmar PM The most senior US official to visit Myanmar in 14 years has met the military government's prime minister for talks. Kurt Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, along with his deputy Scot Marciel, met Thein Sein in the remote jungle capital of Naypyidaw on Wednesday. The two are also set to meet Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained opposition leader, later in the day in Yangon, the former capital. But Myanmar officials said the two envoys will probably not get to meet Senior General Than Shwe, the head of the military government, on their two-day visit. 'First step' Ian Kelly, a spokesman for the US state department, said the visit was a "fact-finding" mission, adding that it was the 'first step, or I guess I should say the second step in the beginning of a dialogue with Burma [Myanmar's earlier name]'. Campbell met Myanmar's information minister and local organisations on Tuesday for talks which Kelly said "laid out the way we see this relationship going forward, how we should structure this dialogue". "But they were mainly in a listening mode," he added. Nyan Win, a spokesman for Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), told the AFP news agency that the party sees the envoys' visit "as the start of direct engagement between the US and Myanmar government". "But we do not expect the exact and big change from this meeting. This visit is just a first stage," he added. Washington signalled a sharp shift in its policy towards Myanmar in September, saying it would be "engaging directly with Burmese authorities", and holding the highest-level contact in a decade with Myanmar officials in New York later in the month. But the US has also said that it will not ease sanctions on the Southeast Asian country without progress on democracy and human rights. Larry Dinger, the charge d'affaires at the US embassy in Yangon, said in an interview published in the semi-official Myanmar Times newspaper this week that Washington wanted to make progress on "important issues" but would maintain sanctions "until concrete progress is made". Backing engagement Aung San Suu Kyi has welcomed US engagement of the military government and in late September wrote a letter to Than Shwe to offer her co-operation in getting Western sanctions lifted after years of backing harsh measures against the ruling generals. The generals granted the Nobel peace laureate two rare meetings with a government minister and allowed her to see Western diplomats last month. Thein Sein, Myanmar's prime minister, told Asian leaders at a summit in Thailand last month that the government sees a role for Aung San Suu Kyi in fostering reconciliation ahead of the promised elections next year, but it was not clear what form this would take. Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent 14 of the past 20 years in detention, continues to be kept under house arrest after having her detention extended by 18 months in August over an incident in which an American man swam to her lakeside house uninvited. Her situation will be discussed when Barack Obama, the US president, meets Southeast Asian leaders at a regional summit in Singapore in mid-November, Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's prime minister, said on Tuesday, adding that Thein Sein was expected to attend. Top US officials meet Myanmar junta, Suu Kyi Yangon, Myanmar — The U.S. wants better relations with military-ruled Myanmar if it makes concrete steps toward democracy, a senior American diplomat said Wednesday after holding the highest-level talks with the junta and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in 14 years. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said he explained Washington's new policy, which reverses the Bush administration's isolation of Myanmar, also known as Burma, in favor of dialogue with a country that has been ruled by the military since 1962. The goals of the new policy are "strong support for human rights, the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners and the promotion of democratic reform," Campbell said in a statement at the end of his two-day visit. Campbell and his deputy, Scot Marciel, are the highest-level Americans to visit Myanmar since 1995. Earlier Wednesday, Campbell, the top State Department official for East Asia, greeted Suu Kyi with a handshake after she was driven to his lakeside hotel in Yangon where they met privately for two hours, U.S. Embassy spokesman Richard Mei said. The content of the talks was not immediately known. Suu Kyi, 64, has been detained for 14 of the past 20 years. Dressed in a pink traditional Burmese jacket, she was upbeat as she emerged from the hotel. "Hello to you all," she said to photographers before getting into the car that whisked her back to her tightly guarded home. Myanmar's junta has praised the new U.S. policy, but shown no sign it intends to release Suu Kyi or initiate democratic and electoral reforms demanded by Suu Kyi's party ahead of elections planned for next year. But the military government has made some gestures, such as loosening the terms of Suu Kyi's house arrest and allowing her more meeting with visitors such as Campbell, in hopes that the U.S. will ease political and economic sanctions. Campbell said he told junta officials that the U.S. "is prepared to take steps to improve the relationship but that process must be based on reciprocal and concrete efforts by the Burmese government." Campbell was continuing talks he began in September in New York with senior Myanmar officials, which were the first such high-level contact in nearly a decade. He met Wednesday morning with Prime Minister Gen. Thein Sein, Mei said. Campbell said he emphasized that Myanmar "should abide by U.N. resolutions with regards to proliferation." He did not elaborate, but was apparently referring to arms purchases from North Korea. There is also some speculation, though no evidence has been made public, that Myanmar is seeking to develop nuclear weapons with North Korea's help. State television, which on Tuesday ignored the Americans' visit, broadcast footage of Campbell's meetings with both Suu Kyi and the prime minister. Suu Kyi was recently sentenced to an additional 18 months of house arrest for briefly sheltering an uninvited American, in a trial that drew global condemnation. The sentence means she will not be able to participate in next year's elections, which will be the first in two decades. U.S. sanctions, first imposed more than a decade ago, failed to force the generals to respect human rights, release jailed political activists and make democratic reforms. The Obama administration decided recently to step up engagement as a way of promoting reforms. Washington has said it will maintain the sanctions until talks with Myanmar's generals result in change. Campbell is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Myanmar since a September 1995 trip by then-U.N. Ambassador Madeleine Albright. Catching two fishes at once? – Saw Yan Naing The visiting US delegation's talks with the Burmese regime, ethnic minority groups and the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has coincided this week with the news that the China gas pipeline project is finally under way in Arakan State. Few things are coincidental in Burma, and several analysts questioned whether the timing of the two initiatives was planned by Burma's generals or whether, in fact, the US and China were competing to win influence among the generals ahead of each other. Could it be that the pariah state was effectively catching two fish at once? It would surely be a sunny day for the military elite's bank accounts if they could consolidate their pipeline deal with the Chinese while simultaneously convincing the Americans to lift sanctions. China's state-owned National Petroleum Corporation announced on Tuesday that construction has finally started on a pipeline that will transfer Middle Eastern and African oil from the Indian Ocean through Burma to Yunnan Province in China's southwest. The multimillion dollar pipeline project will also pipe natural gas from Burmese waters in the Bay of Bengal to China. If Beijing is to revert to talks with Naypyidaw concerning its energy needs, the savings it will make bypassing the Malacca Strait, and a timeline for constructing the pipeline, then it will likely have to curb its criticisms of the junta's policy to wage war on Chinese-blooded ethnic groups such as the Kokang and the Wa, and reassess its claims for damages caused by Burma's government forces during their campaigns against the ethnic armies and condone the resulting flood of refugees onto Chinese soil. The US has moved hastily to overturn the Bush doctrine of sanctions on Burma's military rulers since the Obama administration came to power earlier this year. After an initial hint by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at engagement with the generals, the US moved quickly into the spotlight in August by sending Senator Jim Webb to Naypyidaw—where he went a full step further than UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon by physically meeting with junta strongman Snr-Gen Than Shwe. In September, Burmese Premier Thein Sein attended the UN General Assembly in New York, the first time a Burmese leader had done so in 14 years. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Nyan Win took advantage of the cooling climate to meet Webb at the Burmese embassy in Washington. Most Burma analysts say the regime is trying to find a balance—it wants to maintain a strong relationship with Beijing (without being entirely dependent on China) while aiming to establish better connections with the new US administration. To that end, the Burmese authorities on Wednesday allowed a US delegation, led by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, to meet with Suu Kyi, leaders of her National League for Democracy, and some ethnic representatives. But most analysts warned that it was too early to be optimistic about results from the US delegation's visit. "We can't expect much from the current visit as the US delegation is just a fact-finding mission," said Win Min, a Burmese analyst in Chiang Mai, Thailand. By allowing the US delegation to meet with opposition groups, the regime is relaxing some of its restrictions on dissidents with the aim of having the US lift sanctions on Burma, he said. Larry Jagan, a Britain journalist who regularly covers Burma issues, said, "I think this is a part of Than Shwe's usual approach to international relationships. He is trying to balance China's influence in Naypyidaw. But, he will keep Burma's relationship with China strong." Sean Turnell, an economist at Australia's Macquarie University who produces the Burma Economic Watch report, said, "I think the regime are attempting to assert that they are not wholly dependent on China, and see the opening of a dialogue with the US as a way of presenting this." However, he said that sanctions on Burma won't be lifted in the absence of genuine reform in Burma, and he doesn't see any change on this front for the time being. "For the moment, it's hard to be anything but skeptical. We have been down this road before," he said. Another Burma watcher, Jeff Kingston, the director of Asian Studies at Temple University Japan Campus, said that the Burmese generals are looking to balance their dependence on China by pursuing better ties with the US—but only on their own terms. "It is a strategy for remaining entrenched in power," Kingston said. He said the eruption of fighting against the Kokang army in August is a reminder of just how fragile the peace is in Burma and how the Burmese military represents the greatest threat to that peace. "After 20 years of relative peace, this offensive is the latest sign that the cease-fires may be unraveling, he said. Chan Htun, a former Burmese ambassador to China, said Burma's generals are xenophobic and care for no one. "They act first and solve later," he said, and illustrated his point by pointing to the way the Burmese government cracked down on Chinese in Burma during the riots of 1967. Benedict Rogers, the co-author of a forthcoming book called "Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma's Tyrant," said, "Their [the Burmese generals'] policy is simply to look out for their own interests – and if by engaging with the US they believe they can promote their own interests, they will do so." Burma abstains from UN nuclear resolution – Francis Wade The Burmese government has abstained from a draft United Nations resolution on nuclear disarmament billed as a "leading proactive measure" towards non-proliferation. The draft resolution was however adopted by the UN general assembly last week by an "overwhelming majority of 170 in favor to two against", according to the Japanese foreign ministry. It was Japan who submitted it. A foreign ministry statement said that the resolution "incorporates a high evaluation of the constructive role of civil society in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation". Fears over Burma's nuclear ambitions have strengthened in the past six months in tandem with what appears to be a cosying relationship with North Korea, who along with India rejected the resolution. An investigation published in August by Australian academic Desmond Ball and journalist Phil Thornton that quoted evidence from two Burmese army defectors interviewed about apparent nuclear programmes in Burma further fuelled concerns. A senior-level United States delegation is now in Burma to kick-start a new policy of engagement with the country's military rulers. Senior US officials have stated that Washington is looking to draw Burma away from North Korea, which has been the subject of UN sanctions since it carried out a successful nuclear test in May. While no solid evidence that the Burmese government is developing nuclear weaponry has come to light, observers believe the intention could be there. "A lot of countries dream of nuclear power, either for weapons or peaceful research," said Burmese political analyst Aung Naing Oo, adding that "I'm not in the least bit surprised that Burma abstained". "Especially a country like Burma which has been isolated for so long, they look around and see countries that can stand shoulder to shoulder with superpowers that own, or are in the process of owning, nuclear weapons." China, France, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, Cuba and Bhutan also abstained from the resolution. Both China and Israel are leading weapons suppliers to the Burmese junta. Aung Naing Oo added that the abstention may have held a more symbolic meaning beyond just the ambitions of a country looking to bolster its defence. "A lot of countries with problems want to handle their own affairs using the question of sovereignty, and they don't want interference from any other countries," he said. "Burma has used this non-interference to prevent international meddling." Engagement? It's Asean's Shame (Editorial) During the recent summit meeting in Thailand of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) we witnessed the usual handshakes and smiles on the summit podium. However, behind this front of unity, some civil society groups in the region were shunned, while cronies of the Asean governments and Burma's repressive regime, were invited to attend an interface meeting between government officials and other civil society groups. Despite this shocking compromise, some officials claimed the summit was a success. The sad fact is that Asean remains a club where bureaucrats, politicians and generals who commit crimes against humanity have little respect for their own citizens. To be blunt, Asean leaders remain ignorant about Burma, if not ill-informed. Recently, we heard a wishful and naïve comment from Asean Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan, who was dubbed a shining star when he became Thai foreign minister in 1997. Surin told the Voice of America that Washington's willingness to talk with the Burmese junta opened a "new ball game" for the region. Countries in Southeast Asia were looking forward to seeing adjustments from both sides, he said. "This is a new opportunity. And, all of us in Asean, every member state, recognizes this new opportunity," Surin said. "I think Myanmar [Burma] itself recognizes that this is a golden opportunity for engagement, for interaction, for dialogue, which is well and good. And, I think it's going to be good for the region." Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Asean was pleased that the United States, which maintains strict sanctions against Burma, was now following its lead in trying to engage the junta. "The one thing we all agreed on is that we welcome signs of further engagement in response to some developments in Burma. Asean has always argued that engagement is the right approach," Abhisit said. We all cautiously welcomed the Washington's new approach to Burma. However, many remained skeptical whether the regime will make any major concession. In reality, Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for Southeast Asia, who is now in Burma meeting regime officials and opposition leaders, cautioned that it will be a step-by-step process and that engagement with Burma will be long and painful. Let's make it crystal clear once and for all that Asean's past and present engagement policy with the brutal regime in Burma has gone nowhere. So it is not worth taking credit. Instead, Asean should look at itself in the mirror. Asean's engagement policy with Burma is rather one of appeasement and economic engagement, exploiting Burma's natural resources. In return, the regime leaders, who have killed thousands of innocent people and Buddhist monks and keep politicians and activists in jails, conveniently hide behind the Asean shield. At last month's Asean summit, many media observers and journalists thought that the grouping has allowed the regime to walk away scot-free. Abhisit denied that the group had softened its stance on Burma, having previously issued direct appeals for the release of all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi. "It is not true," he said. "It was discussed. Everybody agrees that we should help Burma move forward in completing their roadmap so that it will lead to democracy." Abhisit's statement again showed Asean's wishful thinking on the regime's intentions and its "road map." It is the constitution that Asean leaders and US leaders should question, because the document only prolongs military rule in Burma. It is a death sentence for many Burmese and ethnic nationalities. In order to keep its credibility and stance, Asean should spell out its own stand on Burma. It is important that Asean should make clear to Burmese leaders that it will join the US's financial and targeted sanctions against the regime leaders and their cronies if they fail to take meaningful steps. Surin Pitsuwan and Asean have a golden opportunity in view of the approaching summit meeting in Singapore between Asean and the US, to be attended by US President Barack Obama. Asean must take a stand and be firm on Burma, demonstrating that the regional grouping's credibility and reputation are at stake because of the brutal nature of the Burmese regime. Surin and Asean leaders should come out and challenge the regime to free political prisoners and Suu Kyi and make meaningful political progress towards national reconciliation. The Burmese junta should be told that the new ball game is based on reward and punishment. Reaching Out to Burma- Bertil Lintner 'Engagement' has been tried before—and it didn't work. U.S. diplomats Kurt Campbell and Scot Marciel are visiting Burma this week to test the Obama administration's new policy of engagement with authoritarian regimes. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has asserted this policy will "help achieve democratic reform." But this approach has been tried before—and it didn't work. Westerners who believe they can "engage" the generals to make them change their ways are naïve. Burma's ruling generals don't receive Western visitors because they are interested in learning anything from them. They talk to outsiders because they think they can use them to get critics off their backs and remain in power. Foreigners, whether they advocate "engagement" or sanctions, have always overestimated their own importance. Burma's generals listen only to themselves and any change would have to come from within the armed forces—the country's most powerful institution—and not from sweet-talking diplomats. It is easy to forget that Sen. Jim Webb's visit to Burma in August, hailed by some foreign diplomats as a "breakthrough," was far from the first of its kind. In February 1994, Congressman Bill Richardson—now the governor of New Mexico—paid a highly publicized visit to Burma. Unlike Mr. Webb, he was allowed to bring an American correspondent with him, Philip Shanon of the New York Times. They met prodemocracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi—who also then was under house arrest—and intelligence chief Gen. Khin Nyunt. Ms. Suu Kyi, then as well as now, expressed her willingness to talk to the junta. At the time, Mr. Richardson's visit was also described as a "breakthrough"—although he himself was very cautious in his remarks and just said that change may come if there were a dialogue between Ms. Suu Kyi and Gen. Khin Nyunt. That did not happen, and after a second visit to Burma in May 1995, Mr. Richardson stated at a press conference in Bangkok that his trip had been "unsuccessful, frustrating and disappointing. Here's my conclusion after my trip. There is serious repression, regression and retrenchment by the [junta] in the area of human rights and democratization." The next "breakthrough" came when, in April 2000, Malaysian diplomat Razali Ismail was appointed as the United Nations' special envoy to Burma. He initiated talks between Ms. Suu Kyi and the generals, which began in October of that year. In May 2002, he scored an even more important success by securing Ms. Suu Kyi's release from house arrest. But a year later she was detained again. In January 2006, Mr. Razali quit his post after being refused entry to the country for nearly two years. In an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation, he admitted he had failed in his job "to help broker an agreement between the government and opposition that would lead the country towards democracy." His successor, Nigerian diplomat Ibrahim Gambari, was equally unsuccessful. After the junta had suppressed a September 2007 movement for change led by Buddhist monks, Mr. Gambari visited Burma and the U.N. said in a statement that, "We now have a process going which would lead to substantive dialogue." Mr. Gambari himself said that national reconciliation had begun as the government had appointed a "Minister for Liaison," Maj. Gen. Aung Kyi, to "smooth relations" with Ms. Suu Kyi. Two years later, we are back at square one. The junta insists that it has to follow its "seven-step road map to democracy" and that "free and fair elections" will be held next year. But few inside the country seem to believe that these "elections" will lead to anything more than ensuring the military's grip on the country. Many ordinary Burmese are saying it is just another government-orchestrated event in which they are required to participate, not unlike the last year's "referendum" in which a new constitution was approved by a Stalinesque 92% of the electorate. That is the path the junta wants to follow, and they are not going to negotiate their own demise with some foreign emissaries. Nor is it likely that Western pressure—or engagement—is going to improve the human-rights situation inside the country. Just days before the U.S. envoys arrived Tuesday the military raided the homes of journalists and activists, detaining about 50 people in a crackdown on overseas private donations for victims of the devastating May 2008 cyclone Nargis. And just by coincidence as the American visitors arrived, the military put on a drug-burning show in the country's remote northeastern region. The drugs were said to have been seized from a local army, which, until it ceased being an ally and broke with the government in August this year, had been praised by the authorities for its "drug-suppression efforts." The show goes on. The military has a clear vision of what kind of state Burma should be—and that is not a democracy. It is sometimes argued that the hopes for a more pluralistic society rest on the next generation army officers. Aware of this danger, officers have been given unprecedented privileges and business opportunities in order to retain their loyalty to the regime. There are no Young Turks lurking in the wings. Still, Burma's only hope for the future is that some officers, young or old, will change their minds. Until that happens, nothing is likely to change. And emissaries sent by the U.S. or any other Western power are likely to end up being as frustrated as Mr. Richardson was 14 years ago. * Mr. Lintner is a Swedish journalist based in Thailand and author of several books on Burma. Burmese-US Relations: 'Mind the Gap!' – David I. Steinberg As a Burmese colleague reminded an unofficial Washington conference on Burma/Myanmar a few days ago, departing passengers on the London tube (subway) were warned to "mind the gap" between the train and platform, otherwise there might be an accident. That advice, he noted, also has merit in thinking about Burmese relations with the US. That dangerous gap in relations has widened over the decade and a half since the last senior US officials traveled to Burma/Myanmar. The isolation in direct dialogue with that country has also been reflected in US-imposed economic isolation through the imposition of various degrees of sanctions since the failed peoples' revolution of 1988. In the past few months, we have witnessed a remarkable shift, not so much in policy but in the efforts to see whether that gap in relations might be narrowed and perhaps bridged. The present visit of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell follows the articulation of a new policy toward Burma by the United States, which in turn followed the August visit by Sen. Jim Webb, the chair of the US House of Representatives Asian subcommittee on foreign affairs. These efforts are part of a process, which as Secretary Campbell has noted, is likely to be long and arduous. The new policy of the Obama administration, released in September by Secretary Campbell, calls for a continuation of the set of sanctions already set in place, and that began over two decades ago when the US cancelled its economic and military aid program in 1988. At the same time, it advocated enhanced and direct dialogue with the Burmese leadership. Both sanctions and dialogue are obviously not ends in themselves—they are tactical means by which to try to achieve goals. Those goals, according to the administration, are to see a more democratic Burmese administration concerned with improving the economic and political plight of its diverse peoples. The efforts by the Obama administration to improve relations with Burma/Myanmar through the visits of Sen. Webb and Secretary Campbell, and the new policy are welcome changes. There have been indications from the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) that they too are also interested in exploring better relations. Both governments are, however, in effect restricted by internal administrative considerations. The SPDC is wedded to its new Constitution that will continue taut military control over the critical affairs of state through an elective process that, as Snr-Gen Than Shwe has noted, will bring "discipline-flourishing democracy," a version of the democratic process unlikely to satisfy the unmodified meaning of the term "democracy" to the Western world. He indicated in his March 27, 2009, speech that as a new well does not quickly yield clear water, so the administration under the new Constitution and legislature will require what is, in effect, a military filter of that muddied democratic water. The Obama administration is also restrained by a strong anti-military sentiment in both parties in the Congress. As a Washington observer noted, Burma is a "boutique issue," important but not top tier. And, as another writer indicated, the executive branch, concerned with other more urgent priorities, leased out policy toward Burma to the Congress, from which it is now trying to retrieve it. The attitudes, or purported attitudes, of Aung San Suu Kyi have strongly influenced U.S. policy backed by an effective lobbying force of rights advocates and expatriate Burmese. Modifications in US policy will not easily be accomplished without significant positive changes within Burma itself. Clearly, internal political considerations affect the possible narrowing of the gap in relations that presently exists. But this is the best opportunity in about two decades to explore affecting change. It is in the interests of the Burmese people, the United States, and indeed the Southeast Asia region and beyond, that this process proves fruitful. David I. Steinberg is distinguished professor of Asian Studies at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book is "Burma/Myanmar: What Everyone Needs to Know." (Oxford University Press). 'Wave of arrests' in Burma Bangkok — Burma's military junta has stepped up detentions of its political opponents and social activists in recent weeks, with as many as 50 people arrested in the last month, according to activists and residents. "In recent days, they have been arresting mainly journalists and former prisoners," said Ko Tak Naing, secretary of the rights group Association for Assistance to Political Prisoners (AAPP), which is based in the Thai-Burmese border region. "Amongst the journalists, we are certain at least 10 have been arrested," he said. "They are journalists such as Ko Soe Moe, Ko Nyi Nyi Tun, and Khan Min Htet, who have been arrested in the last few days." Reasons unclear While activists and local people are unsure of the reason behind the apparent crackdown, some say it is linked to stepped-up security measures around the former capital, Rangoon. Other reported detainees included two young journalists and seven young men who were actively involved in private relief efforts in the wake of last year's devastating Tropical Cyclone Nargis. Journalists Ko Thant Zin Soe from The Voice weekly magazine and freelance journalist Ko Paing Soe Oo are believed to have been detained around midnight on Oct. 27, sources in Rangoon said. Further detentions were reported at Rangoon's Cultural University, according to a resident there. "They all live in the Sittaung housing estate in the Yuzana Garden city," said a woman at the university. "They were all students attending the university." At first the detentions were linked to the students' failure to register as overnight guests, but local authorities denied carrying out any inspections in the area, she said. "We don't know why they say this. But they did take the youths away," she said. Nargis links The seven students are all believed to have been working with a social organization called Lin Let Kyair, formed two years ago after Nargis killed an estimated 140,000 people. Villagers in the worst-hit regions said they have been unable to rebuild their lives in the wake of the storm, which left millions with no home or livelihood. Local and overseas aid workers said Burma's ruling military junta deliberately blocked aid to victims of Nargis, and failed to ensure that fields were ploughed in time for the harvest. It has also jailed a number of private citizens, some of them well-known, for aiding cyclone victims. Lin Let Kyair is a nonprofit voluntary social organization that has been helping victims in poverty-stricken villages to dig wells, build schools and libraries, and provide educational assistance for children. New checkpoints Rangoon residents said a series of checkpoints had been springing up around Rangoon in recent weeks, with travelers and former political prisoners under close surveillance. "In recent days the police have been stopping cars and checking them out in front of the Tamwe High School," said the Rangoon resident who lives near the Cultural University. "They have been asked to open their trunks. Also at the entrance to Yuzana Garden they would stop cars and inspect the belongings of the occupants," she said. "They are doing the same at the Central Mall, and in Rangoon at the traffic light at the front of the [opposition National League for Democracy] office," she added. Authorities were also keeping a close watch on the activities of 7,000 former prisoners, especially those who were political prisoners, who were released in a recent amnesty. "Their houses have been specifically picked for search and inspection by the police," she said. Original reporting in Burmese by Ingjin Naing and Son Moe Wai. Burmese service director: Nancy Shwe. Translated by Soe Thinn. Written for the Web in English by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Sarah Jackson-Han. ONGC to invest $174 mn in Myanmar The overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has been allowed to make an investment of up to $173.85 million in a hydrocarbon assets in Myanmar. The decision was taken at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The investment has been approved for gas blocks blocks A-1 and A-3 in Myanmar Natural Gas Development Project by ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL). The two companies that will benefit from the award of contract are OVL and GAIL India, both state-owned firms under the administrative control of India's petroleum and natural gas ministry. The investment is expected to provide additional reserve accretion of hydrocarbons and facilitate production and marketing of natural gas. Is Burma softening its stance? – Alastair Leithead This month Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi passed two milestones. The first was 14 years – that is the amount of time she has now spent in detention during the past two decades. The second was to meet Western diplomats and begin talks with Burmese military leaders – talks which some think could see her released. "Given the impasse of the last 20 years, what has happened in the last three months gives us the hope there will be some movement," says Derek Tonkin, a former British ambassador and current Burma activist. There seemed little hope of progress in August, when Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, known as The Lady, had her house arrest extended by 18 months for allowing an uninvited American man to stay in her lakeside home after swimming to see her. While the controversial court case was going on, the Obama adminstration was looking at engagement within a review of its Burma strategy ahead of elections planned for Burma next year. This was happening amid the fear of increasing Chinese influence in the gap left by Western isolation. 'Pragmatic engagement' Soon after the trial ended, Senator Jim Webb became the most senior US official to meet Burma's top general, Than Shwe. He was also allowed to see Aung San Suu Kyi – something even UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon could not do. As a man reporting back directly to President Barack Obama, his message that "sanctions hadn't worked" was what the generals wanted to hear. He emphasised the increased influence of China as well – an Asia-wide trend that has Washington worried. The next step was a switch in US policy towards "pragmatic engagement" – in other words, direct senior level dialogue with the leadership. US demands include the release of political prisoners, including Ms Suu Kyi, but what are they offering in return? The only high-value card is sanctions, and that is what The Lady also used to open her own talks. Her recent letter to number one general Than Shwe requested a meeting with Western diplomats for her to establish what sanctions are in place, and it was permitted within a week. "The generals are looking for international recognition for the 2010 election. They are trying to co-opt Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy to take part in the elections without any constitutional change," said Derek Tonkin. "We are still waiting for a really significant movement, but I could see Aung San Suu Kyi being released before the election if they could secure an understanding." An end to sanctions? The message from Burma's Prime Minister Thein Sein at the recent meeting of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) in Thailand was that the ruling generals see a role for Ms Suu Kyi in fostering reconciliation, according to Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva – and that the conditions of her detention could be relaxed. Thant Myint-U, a Burmese historian and author whose grandfather was UN Secretary General U Thant, thinks her early release is possible but unlikely. He believes the purpose of the talks is partly to find out what exactly the Burmese want. "It is extremely unlikely the US Congress will overturn sanctions, but if the US government thinks the Burma generals are moving in the right direction there are other things they can do," he said. "Everything from using the name Myanmar, rather than Burma, to lifting some of the restrictions the US has on multilateral co-operation to assistance programmes." US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell made it clear that dialogue would supplement rather than replace sanctions. "We will maintain our existing sanctions until we see concrete progress," he told the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs this month. "We believe any easing of sanctions now would send the wrong signal to those who have been striving for so many years for democracy in Burma." Europe's stance Mark Farmaner, from Burma Campaign UK, which has strongly supported sanctions, said the US policy of demanding results is what the UN has failed to do, and will put extreme pressure on the regime. "Sanctions were always meant to be one of the few tools to give them leverage to force the generals into talks, but they should not be given away unless you get something in return," he said. "One hundred political prisoners of more than 2,000 are seriously ill and being systematically refused medical treatment. The regime is ruthlessly pushing ahead with its agenda. You have to look at history and come back down to earth. "We are afraid of EU countries pre-emptively lifting sanctions and that would send the wrong message to the generals," he added. There doesn't appear to be much fear of that, as the European Union still has not made an official statement. Some sources suggest this is because Britain is "dragging its heels" and urging collective caution. But Western diplomats say Europe will soon open up its own dialogue with Burma, following the US lead. "The elections may not be free and fair, but we need to be there anyway," diplomats say, pointing out it's the first opportunity in 20 years for any change at all, and the West has to position itself to engage with a new government made up of at least some elected civilians. So does that mean lifting some European sanctions? Only in co-ordination with the US policy, but it's understood consideration is being put to the mechanics of what might be lifted and when. This could include the re-opening to Burma of special EU trade access for developing countries, or allowing access to international financial institutions like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank. Author Thant Myint-U thinks the ruling generals will balance their image abroad and better relations with the West against their well-established plans for a "democratic" Burma. "There is concern among some quarters in Burma of an over-reliance on China, and as the US is the only balancer they think it is time to reach out to the US," he said. Progress is slow, but as one diplomat said "anything can happen in Burma". Nargis volunteers, including reporter arrested New Delhi – A number of members of a Cyclone Nargis volunteer group, 'Lin Let Kye', including freelance journalist Pai Soe Oo were arrested from Dagon Seikkan, Rangoon Division yesterday evening. Pai Soe Oo (23), an active member of Lin Let Kye, means Shining Star, was arrested by local township authorities from his Yuzana Housing Apartment in Dagon Seikkan Township at 9 p.m. for questioning. "Three persons wearing USDA badges and three local officials came and said that he would be taken to the Home Ministry. When I was ready to go with him, they said they would come again tomorrow," a friend of Pai Soe Oo living with him told Mizzima. Following a search of his home, the officials seized a note book with the names of Lin Let Kye members. Pai Soe Oo is a former reporter of 'Favorite' and 'Pyi Myanmar' weeklies. He is also a blogger. The Lin Let Kye volunteer group was formed in early May 2008 and has over 40 members. Most of them are Rangoon based reporters and young social activists. "They compiled a list of Cyclone Nargis victims, who are children and donated school text books and provided other school expenses, in consultation with the school principals," a source close to Lin Let Kye said. The gatekeeper of the Home Ministry office said that there was no detainee in the Bahan Township office when asked about his whereabouts this morning. "We visited the Home Ministry office this morning when he did not come back. The police personnel at the gate kept us waiting for over three hours. And then the gatekeeper appeared and told us that there was no detainee in the office. He suggested we inquire about him at the office of the local authority and the local police station," one of those, who visited the Home Ministry office, said. Similarly at least five other members of 'Lin Let Kye' were arrested from their rented apartment in Yuzana Housing on October 26. They are Ka Gyi, Zaw Gyi, Lai Ron, Shwe Moe and Aung Myat Kyaw Thu. Their whereabouts are still unknown. The Burmese translator-editor of the Foreign Affairs Weekly and also a Lin Let Kye member, Thant Zin Soe was arrested on October 26. The Foreign Affairs journal is published by the media group, which also publishes 'The Voice' and 'Living Colour'. Some Lin Let Kye members are on the run as the authorities are conducting combing operations against the group. The authorities also arrested famous comedian and film director Thura a.k.a. Zarganar and sports journalist Zaw Thet Htwe, while they were into volunteer service for Cyclone Nargis victims. They were sentenced to long prison terms later. (Reported by Khai Suu and edited by Ye Yint Aung) Burmese government ups people's militia recruitments Villagers from rural areas as well as city residents are reporting that Burma's military government is pushing for larger village security forces all over Mon State, as part of a "People's Militia Strategy" that will increase the governmental control all over the state. Township Peace and Development Council (TPDC) members have been visiting villages throughout their respective townships, pushing village headmen to recruit greater numbers of village militia forces. IMNA's sources confirmed the occurrence of TPDC recruitment meetings in townships all over Mon State, including in Kyaikmayaw, Mudon, Thanbyuzayat and Ye Townships. According to s Kaw-that village [in Kyaikmayaw Township] resident, on 25th of October 2009, a TPDC chairman journeyed to Kaw-that with the express purpose of inciting village headmen in the area to push village youth to join their respective village militias, in the name of promoting village security. According to a monk in Mudon Township who is originally from Karen State, village militia recruitments have also intensified in various parts of Karen State. In this monk's opinion, the Burmese government is pushing for larger People's Militias as a way to increase its influence on the Burmese people before the 2010 elections. "We knew that the authorities collected the residents to become a People's Militia group in our village, but we don't exactly know how many people they got in each village. The residents must do this [join militias] because of the TPDC authorities," this monk added. According to IMNA's sources, authorities in Khawzar in southern Mon state held a meeting last week in the village about People's Militia training. Several individuals who attended the meeting informed IMNA that 30 more villagers were added to the village security force through a lottery, while the remainder of the Kaw Zar village residents was informed that they were now responsible for contributing money to the new recruits' militia training. According to a former NMSP colonel Nai Koa Rot, the implementation of the "People's Militia Strategy" will lead to village residents all over Mon State's various townships to become the auxiliaries of the Burmese military government. "The government compelled the residents to join in the militias because if one of the opposition groups comes to their village, they will have a defense. Also if the [opposition] group comes and asks for money, they can safely refuse. This is the government's strategy, that if the opposition group comes to the village, the residents will depend on the government's people's militias, so the opposition groups can't be harsh to the residents," he added. He informed IMNA that the military wants to increase the People's Militias groups this year because they wish to organized villagers before the 2010 elections. Nai Koa Rot claimed that similar increases have occurred in the past, most recently before the 2008 constitutional referendum. According to a source close to a People's Militia group in Thanphyuzayat Township, increased numbers of village security forces in the Township's villages has actually done little to increase residents' security. The village where this source lives was forced to collectively provide 100 baskets of rice seeds to the militia, with seeds taken from the villagers' personal stores. Rewarding Burma's generals The new message from Washington: Deal with Pyongyang, win diplomatic goodies. The Obama Administration is starting to worry about Burma's nuclear ambitions. That's the good news. The bad news is that the White House is taking the same failed tack it used with Tehran and Pyongyang and trying to cajole the generals out of their biggest potential bargaining chip. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell calls this policy "pragmatic engagement." In testimony to Congress last week, he confirmed the U.S. would soon send a "fact-finding" mission to Naypyidaw, possibly as early as next week. The delegation will discuss "alleged concerns associated with U.N. Resolution 1874," referring to this year's Security Council measure that forbids U.N. members from trading arms with North Korea. The U.S. is right to pay attention to Burma's burgeoning relationship with Pyongyang. A U.S. destroyer trailed a North Korean military ship, the Kang Nam, for weeks earlier this year as it sailed toward Burma, presumably to deliver weapons. The regime has also built a series of tunnels near the capital which analysts say could be used for military operations or missile storage. Mr. Campbell claims the dialogue, which comes after the U.S. hosted a high-level Burmese diplomat in September—will "test the intentions of the Burmese leadership and the sincerity of their expressed interest in a more positive relationship with the United States." But by even showing up, the U.S. team would hand the generals a diplomatic victory. A visit by Mr. Campbell would be the highest-level U.S. delegation to visit Burma since Madeleine Albright's trip in 1995, when she was ambassador to the United Nations. Meanwhile, the generals have shown no indication to change their behavior. Over the past few months, the regime has intensified its ethnic-cleansing campaign against minorities, placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest (again), and detained and tortured a U.S. citizen, Kyaw Zaw Lin, who has ties to the dissident community. That makes Mr. Campbell's talk of increasing humanitarian aid premature and potentially very damaging. Burma has a highly restrictive environment where many aid groups are beholden to the state. USAID will already funnel some $28 million into Burma-related programs this year, about 40% of which will go directly inside the country. To his credit, Mr. Campbell has said he would meet with imprisoned opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, ask the generals to release her and all political prisoners, and talk to the political opposition in preparation for elections next year. But his very presence in Naypyidaw would send a message that the generals' embrace of North Korea is paying off handsomely. Other countries will take note of this lesson, too. How Australia can take the lead in engaging Burma's brutal regime – David Scott Mathieson Australia has an often overlooked key role to play in drawing military ruled Burma out of its isolation, and is well placed to play a prominent supporting position in international efforts to engage the ruling State Peace and Development Council. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Foreign Minister Stephen Smith are tough talking and principled on human rights in Burma, especially after the September 2007 Buddhist monk-led uprising was brutally crushed, the initial official blocking of foreign relief aid after the May 2008 cyclone, and the political show trial this year of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Kevin Rudd called Nobel Peace Prize winner Suu Kyi's conviction and sentencing to a further 18 months under house arrest in August a "new low for the Burmese regime." This is precisely what the SPDC needs to hear. The message roughly is: "We don't like what you're doing, but we are dead-set on continuing to help your people." Emphasize Teamwork Australia can recalibrate its Burma policy for more bilateral effect and multilateral influence in three key areas: diplomacy, humanitarian assistance and sanctions. Australia is already outspoken toward the SPDC. This must continue, and can in an important way if the government appoints a specific Burma envoy to coordinate bilateral diplomatic efforts, AusAID programs and multilateral initiatives in the United Nations and Asean. The United States has congressional legislative provisions to appoint its own Burma envoy and policy advisor, but after nearly two years has yet to do so. Australia can set an example by taking this important initiative first. The appointment of country-specific envoys would not just bolster the "Good Offices" mission of the UN secretary general, which has unfortunately made little progress so far with the SPDC, but could also propel the formation of a "contact group" of key states on Burma — China, Japan, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Australia — to move beyond the perception that international criticism of Burma just emanates from Western countries. The SPDC thrives on divide and rule, domestically and internationally, so the aim must be to speak with a unified voice. Australia and Indonesia, as key middle-ranking states in the region, and largely of similar mind if different public statements on Burma, could take the lead in forming such a contact group. Donate Generously, but Fairly On humanitarian assistance, Australia is already one of the best donors, addressing Burma's immense developmental challenges of poverty alleviation, deteriorating health conditions, and human rights protection. AusAID provisions to Burma are an annual $26 million, with an additional $50 million for post-cyclone relief. Much of this funding goes in the right direction. If anything, Australia could be more generous, something that could be said of most international humanitarian donors who are only now realizing the immense needs inside Burma. The reality is that with all the impediments and ineptitude placed in donors' paths by the SPDC, a lot of good can be done by helping communities survive the capricious and self-centered regime. Australia is also very generous in its acceptance of refugees from Burma, resettling thousands of mostly ethnic-Karen from long standing camps situated on the Thailand-Burma border, while also continuing to fund agencies supporting an estimated 140,000 civilians still languishing in those camps. However, there appears to be reluctance within the Australian bureaucracy to support urgently needed humanitarian assistance efforts for Burmese civilians in conflict zones, often erroneously termed "cross-border assistance." In fact, supporting health and livelihood initiatives "cross-border" is actually providing humanitarian assistance to Burma: All of the existing programs in conflict areas are conducted by ethnic Burma groups, often on the run from the SPDC army, and necessarily clandestine, but definitely needed. Providing financial assistance to these projects from Thailand, China, India or Bangladesh is more efficient, realistic and practical than going through Yangon, as most UN and other international aid groups must do. Target Sanctions Effectively Last is the vexed issue of sanctions. It is impossible to conclude that international sanctions have had their desired effect. That is, for the SPDC to respect the human rights of the Burma people. Yet they retain a certain symbolic utility, reminding the regime of how their reprehensible actions transgress international norms of acceptable behavior. Removing the sanctions too fast sends the wrong message, especially when the SPDC makes their repeal such a prominent condition for negotiation. Sanctions, therefore, have a prime usefulness, and should be scrapped only incrementally in line with significant concessions from the regime. Also, Australia specifically blocks transfers of funds or payments to or from people who benefit from military rule in Burma, yet does not bar other types of financial services and transactions. Most notably, Australia's current measures do not fully freeze assets held by such persons in Australia, nor clearly block dealings with those individuals that involve Australian persons and institutions operating from other countries. Firm steps are needed to fully enforce sanctions so that key Burma officials named as targets are not able to derive benefit from assets in Australia or handled by Australian institutions. The nation must not wait for evidence of concessions from the SPDC to repeal its present sanctions. It should wrest the initiative back from the regime by recalibrating its targeted measures now. It can do this in two important ways. First, by tightening up its list of SPDC officials and by including specific key companies or Burma military-controlled entities with direct links to the regime. Second, Australia can make more effort in coordinating sanctions with the United States, EU, Switzerland and Canada to target key individuals, both military and civilian, who bear responsibility for abuses and whose considerable financial support of the SPDC could undermine these sanctions. These individuals are at the apex of the system inside Burma and susceptible to this kind of pressure. Listen to the Lady In a letter sent by Suu Kyi to President Than Shwe on Sept. 25, the detained democratic leader urged negotiations on lifting sanctions, and specifically requested leave to consult with the Australian ambassador in Rangoon, something she did recently (albeit with a lower official because the ambassador was on holiday at the time), as well as the British ambassador and a representative of the European Union. This is an important step, and countries with sanctions in place should consult not just with Suu Kyi but other opposition figures and business leaders to gradually repeal sanctions — but only when all political prisoners are released and there has been genuine progress on opening up the political system to encourage community participation ahead of the elections next year. In the interim, tightening specific targeted sanctions is one way of focusing the SPDC's attention on what they stand to lose from treating enhanced talks with the international community with their instinctively cynical self-interest. Australia's Burma policy should be lauded for its considered balance and the continued expression of support for a free and democratic Burma by most if not all members of the federal Parliament. With just a few policy tweaks, a little more money and a substantial investment in multilateral diplomacy, Australia could provide the kind of renewed international and regional guidance on engaging Burma that is now desperately needed. * David Scott Mathieson is Burma researcher in the Asia Division of Human Rights Watch. 25 percent of Shan families forcibly relocated – Francis Wade More than a quarter of families in Burma's northeastern Shan state were forcibly relocated in the past year, while nine percent of families had at least one member injured by a landmine, a US health academic said. A further 24 percent of families had one member taken by Burmese troops for forced labour, according to Professor Chris Beyrer, from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The findings were reported to the US House Foreign Affairs Committee during a testimony on US policy to Burma last week. While much of the rhetoric surrounding the policy shift has focused on Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma's 2,100 political prisoners, Beyrer said that attacks on ethnic nationalities in the Karen and Shan states "are the second major cause for concern in Burma today". Attacks by Burmese troops in Shan state, Burma's largest state with a population of nearly five million, had been particularly intense, with 39 villages targeted and 10,000 villagers forcibly displaced as "part of a systematic and widespread scorched earth campaign". The findings of investigations into landmine injuries in Shan state were among the highest rates ever documented, he said. Burma's state expenditure on healthcare is amongst the lowest in the world. Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF) estimates that $US0.70 per capita per year, or 0.3 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), is channeled into the health sector. The volatile Shan state, which borders China, was the scene of heavy fighting in August and September between government troops and an armed ethnic group from the Kokang region. The fighting, which erupted following rising tension over the government's proposals to transform ethnic armies into border guard militias, forced some 37,000 refugees into China. Beyrer said that the attacks on ethnic groups were part of the government's preparation for the 2010 elections. "The junta is creating new humanitarian emergencies with its current campaign for political control of ethnic areas and destabilizing its border regions with China," he said. "Burmese refugees continue to flee not only into China, but to Thailand, India, Bangladesh and Malaysia, making this a truly regional concern." NMSP Chairmen organize throughout Mon State in preparation for 2010 elections – Rai Maraoh Reports have surfaced that New Mon State Party (NMSP) chairman Nai Htaw Mon, as well NMSP Central Executive Committee members Nai Hong Sar and Nai Htar Wara, have been traversing Mon State and MNSP territory since mid-September 2009, organizing Mon communities in Burma in preparation for the 2010 elections. "They [the NMSP organizing committee] are explaining the most important elements of the NMSP agenda, and what they have done already and what are they are planning to do for the future" said an NMSP officer based in Sangkhlaburi, Thailand. According to IMNA's reporters, Nai Htaw Mon and his fellow Central Executive Committee members have been touring the various districts of Mon State and MNSP territory separately, each accompanied by a small group of NMSP members. The three groups have been holding lectures in strategic locations, where they discussed the NMSP's political positions to groups of villagers, youth, and monks. "Nai Htaw Mon and his members organized in Mudon Township this week, they explained the NMSP's decision not to accept the SPDC's Border Guard Force or People's Militia offers," said a Mudon Township resident who attended a lecture at a local monastery. According to IMNA's reporter, Nai Htaw Mon and his group have thus far toured Moulmein District and Tha-ton District, NMSP General Secretary Nai Hong Sar and Central Executive Committee Member Nai Htar Wara have both travelled from Tavoy District to Bee Ree area, upstream of the Ye river. Reports indicate that the majority of the lectures centered around the NMSP's official rejection of the Burmese government's offer to convert its armed wing into a Border Guard force this August. "They accumulated [for the lectures] the residents at the NMSP district office, and then for the monks they spoke at the monasteries; they also included Mon youth these meetings; They told us Mon people needed to know about NMSP's position [regarding the Border Guard Force offer], they told us the NMSP will never change their position on this issue," the Mudon Township resident who spoke to IMNA added. This source added that the organizers at the Mudon Township conference informed the audience that the NMSP wants the Mon community in Burma to understand the NMSP's position on the Burmese government's Border Guard Force offer clearly, before the 2010 elections. This January, IMNA reported on the NMSP's January 27th announcement of dissatisfaction with the Burmese Government's 2008 constitution; the NMSP issued a statement claiming that if certain elements of the constitution were changed, it would consider running in the 2010 elections. Rohingya forced to build fence – Nicolas Haque On Myanmar's side of the Naf River that marks border with Bangladesh, labourers are hard at work building a fence that will prevent them fleeing persecution. They will not be paid for their work. Instead the men, who come from the persecuted Rohingya ethnic group, have been coerced into erecting the 230km long fence by the threat of violence against their families. The Rohingyas are a distinct ethnic group from Myanmar's Rakhine State. The authorities in Yangon have refused to recognise them as citizens and they have been persecuted for their cultural difference and practice of Islam. For many, life in Myanmar has become so difficult that they have fled across the border to Bangladesh. Over the past year 12,000 Rohingyas have been caught crossing the border illegally. Now they are being forced to build a fence to prevent such escapes. "The Myanmar army have forced all of the men living in the villages on the border to work on the fence," a worker involved in the construction says. "Most of them are Rohingyas. If we don't do as they say they beat us and our families." So far they have fenced off 70km of border in what experts believe is an attempt by Yangon to increase control of the lucrative smuggling trade that flourishes in the area. "Illegal trade between Myanmar and Bangladesh has formerly been in favour of Bangladesh, but this will change now,"explains Professor Imtiaz Ahmed, from Dhaka University. "The country that controls the barriers between borders can also assert greater control over the illegal trade." Disputed border Bangladesh and Myanmar have never agreed on their borders, and an ongoing dispute over where their maritime frontiers lie has seen tension rise along the Naf river. The contested maritime border involves a patch of sea believed to contain valuable oil and gas. Control of these waters could make either country very rich, and experts say that diplomatic relations between the two countries has deteriorated as a result of the dispute. "The tension was heightened last November when the Myanmar Navy came in to put a rig in what Bangladesh claims, rightly, to be our own territorial water," says Retired Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, from the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies. "Eventually the Bangladeshi diplomatic efforts diffused the situation, and the Myanmar navy rig went back, but the Myanmar government has consistently told Bangladesh that this is their water, and that they will come back. When that happens, perhaps the Myanmar government wants to put a dual pressure on Bangladesh, not only from the sea but also from the land border." That process may have already started. Myanmar has deployed 50,000 men to the border with Bangladesh, and in the past month alone, Dhaka has responded by sending an additional 3000 troops to the area in a manoeuvre codenamed "Operation Fortress." Officially, the Bangladeshi government denies there is tension along the border. The troops say they are there to monitor and stop the illegal trafficking of goods and people. But the soldiers know that relations between the two countries are strained. "We have a border through which we can observe the other side of the river. Our troops morale is very high, under any circumstances we are ready to protect the integrity and sovereignty of our country," says Lieutenant Colonel Mozammel, commanding officer of Border Guards Bangladesh in Teknaf. Unregistered refugees Meanwhile, the horrific conditions faced by the Rohingyas in Myanmar are prompting thousands to flee to Bangladesh. Malika is one of those who crossed the Naf river illegally. Her feet are swollen from the three-day walk to escape Yangon's soldiers. She says she suffered horrific abuse there and had no choice but to leave. "I couldn't stay there, the soldiers raped me over and over again," she says. "The Myanmar army do not consider us as humans." But once in Bangladesh, the refugees face new problems. Of more than 400,000 Rohingyas believed to have slipped across the border into Bangladesh, just 26,000 have been offically recognised as refugees by the Bangladeshi government and the United Nations. The authorities refuse to feed and house the rest. Even the handful of NGOs working here are not allowed to provide food or medical aid or education facilities to unregistered Rohingyas because the government fears that this would spark tensions between poor local villagers and the new arrivals. Fadlullah Wilmot, the director of Muslim Aid in Bangladesh, explains: "More than 44 per cent of the population in this area are ultra poor, that means that their daily income only provides their basic food needs. The literacy rate is about 10 per cent. The wage rate is low, so of course there are tensions." In limbo In 1992, the Bangladeshi government, under the supervision of UNHCR, organised the forced repatration of 250,000 Rohingyas on the basis that the refugees would be given citizenship by the Myanmar authorities. That promise was never kept. Professor Ahmad believes the refugees are trapped between a rock and a hard place. "Myanmar's position is they do not recognise them as citizens, they are stateless within Myanmar, and they are also stateless when they come to Bangladesh," he says. "If you build the fence now Myanmar will probably say it is ready to take the 26,000 legal refugees from the camp but not the unregistered because they don't know who they are." Trapped in limbo between two countries that don't want them, the Rohingyas have become a bargaining chip for both Bangladesh and Myanmar as they try to settle their border dispute. In Bangladesh's refugee camps, frustration and anger are rife amongst the beleagured minority. "We cannot work. Our children can't go to school. Our wives aren't allowed to see doctors," one man says. "We cannot receive any food aid. No one wants us. This is humiliating, we have no arms, but we are ready to fight and to blow ourselves up. People need to know that we exist." Communities stand up against Chinese dams on Burma's Irrawaddy Open defiance against Chinese dams in military-ruled Burma surfaced this month as dam construction and a forced relocation process began in the country's northern Kachin State. Affected people directly confronted leading military personnel and held mass prayers, while a community network has written to the Chinese dam builders. On October 9th, residents of Tanghpre village at the planned Myitsone dam site on the confluence at the source of the Irrawaddy handed an open letter directly to Burma's Northern military commander, objecting to the dam. The dam will flood the confluence and displace 15,000 people. In August military authorities informed residents that they had less than two months to begin moving out. "We cannot bring our farms with us when we move" said a representative of the Tanghpre Village Housewives Group in a meeting with the commander on October 10th. "We do not want to move and we appeal to you to bring our concerns to Naypyidaw for consideration." On the same day, three hundred residents assembled at the confluence for a public prayer ceremony to protect the rivers. Several historical churches will be submerged by the Myitsone Dam, which will also flood forests in one of the world's "hottest hotspots" of biodiversity. The Kachin Development Networking Group, which has been monitoring the dam developments, are today sending an open letter to China Power Investment calling on them to immediately stop construction of the Myitsone Dam and other dams in Kachin State "to avoid being complicit in multiple serious human rights abuses associated with the project." China Power Investment is planning a series of seven dams on the Irrawaddy and its two main tributaries. Construction of the 2,000-megawatt Chibwe Dam on the N'mai River has already begun. The majority of the electricity from all the dams will be transmitted to China. The latest details of the developments at the two dam sites and the recent community opposition can be found in a report Resisting the Flood released today by the Kachin Development Networking Group on www.burmariversnetwork.org Video footage is available at http://www.burmariversnetwork.org/videos.html Constitution must be revised before election: opposition leaders – Salai Pi Pi New Delhi – Prominent Burmese opposition leaders say the junta's planned 2010 elections cannot be inclusive and broad-based unless the 2008 Constitution is first revised. Win Tin, a veteran politician and senior member of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party, said in order to make the 2010 election inclusive the 2008 Constitution must be amended, as the document, which he asserts enshrines military-rule, will essentially bar all dissidents including Aung San Suu Kyi from participating in the poll. "The constitution does not allow any political prisoners their electoral rights, and this will also include Aung San Suu Kyi," Win Tin clarified. "Therefore, it is necessary that the constitution is revised before the election." Win Tin's comments came in response to a statement from the Burmese Prime Minister at the 15th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, concluded on Sunday. The Burmese Premier, Thein Sein, reportedly ensured leaders of the 10-member ASEAN bloc meeting in Thailand that the 2010 elections would be free, fair and inclusive of all stakeholders. Thein Sein also commented that Aung San Suu Kyi could be allowed to play a role in national reconciliation, further hinting that the regime may relax restrictions on the detained opposition leader if she maintains a "good attitude." "He briefed us on some of the dialogue that is taking place and he feels optimistic that she can contribute to the process of national reconciliation," Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva told reporters. "We welcomed the affirmation by the Prime Minister of Myanmar [Burma] that the general elections to be held in 2010 would be conducted in a free, fair and inclusive manner," Abhisit continued in his statement. While cautiously welcoming Thein Sein's comments, Win Tin noted the Nobel Peace Laureate has been maintaining a soft stance towards the regime and urging national reconciliation for the last twenty years. Meanwhile, Aye Thar Aung, Secretary of the Committee Representing Peoples' Parliament (CRPP), a coalition of political parties that won the 1990 election, on Monday echoed similar views to those of Win Tin, primarily that the junta's planned election next year cannot be inclusive unless the constitution, which he called "forcibly endorsed in 2008", is revised. "Without revising the 2008 Constitution, the election will not be able to yield anything good for the people of Burma," Aye Thar Aung told Mizzima. Aye Thar Aung added that Burma's generals only want Aung San Suu Kyi to contribute for their national reconciliation plan but are reluctant to change their overall stance in fear of losing power. "Changes have to come from both sides. They [the junta] also must change their stance towards her," he elaborated. He said the only way to build a genuine national reconciliation is to hold a tripartite dialogue between the Burmese generals, Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of the ethnic groups. Following the U.S. announcement of its new policy on Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi last month offered junta leader Senior General Than Shwe her willingness to cooperate in the easing of sanctions. In response, Than Shwe allowed her and her party meetings with western diplomats. Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent 14 of the past 19 years in detention, was sentenced to another 18 months of house arrest in August after an American man swam uninvited to her lakeside home, spending two nights on the premises. The NLD won a landslide victory in the 1990 election, but the regime refused to honor the result and instead drew up a seven-step roadmap to democracy. According to the roadmap, the proposed 2010 election is the fifth step. In a statement at the end of the ASEAN summit in Thailand, leaders of the 16 countries encouraged Burma to ensure the implementation of their seven-step roadmap and to restore democracy in the country. However, Win Tin emphasized the "NLD will not contest the upcoming election if the regime does not revise the constitution." The NLD has also consistently called on the junta to release all political prisoners, in addition to mandating free and fair elections, before they consider participating in any poll. Suu Kyi 'can play a role' Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein has told Asian leaders the detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi can contribute to national reconciliation. It was not clear if that meant Burma's military would allow her to take part in next year's elections. The Burmese PM was speaking at the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) regional summit in Thailand. The leaders were strongly criticised by activists for their failure to demand more of Burma on ending military rule. "He [the Burmese premier] briefed us on some of the dialogue that is taking place and he feels optimistic that she can contribute also to the process of national reconciliation," said Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. He "recognises full well that the rest of the world expects to see elections as inclusive as possible," Mr Abhisit said. It is not clear if the reported comments mean Burma's military would allow Aung San Suu Kyi any role in next year's elections. On Saturday, Japan's prime minister Yukio Hatoyama reported that the Burmese had said the conditions of Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest could be relaxed if she showed what they called a good attitude. This month, Burma allowed her to meet Western diplomats, after extending her detention by 18 months – a move which could ensure her absence from elections planned by the junta for next year. Indian premier Manmohan Singh said there was an "atmosphere of hope" about improving relations between Burma and the United States, which recently began to re-engage the junta after years of hostility. The summit leaders, from the 10-member Asean and partners China, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, had all welcomed the US engagement, Mr Abhisit added. However, just three lines in a nine-page closing document were devoted to Burma, where summit leaders hoped the 2010 elections would be "fair, free, inclusive and transparent". It made no mention of Suu Kyi, who has been detained for 14 of the past 20 years. "The whole thing is a bit of a farce," David Mathieson, a Burma expert at Human Rights Watch, told AFP. Asian leaders spent more time discussing plans to "lead the world" by forming an EU-style community by 2015. There was debate at the summit over whether the community should also include the United States. The junta has kept Ms Suu Kyi under house arrest for most of the past two decades after her National League for Democracy swept elections in 1990 but was barred from taking power. KIO demands recognition of Panlong Agreement – Nem Davies New Delhi – The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), one of Burma's longest running rebel group, said they are willing to abandon arms struggle if, the ruling junta guarantees equal rights to both ethnics and Burmans agreed in the historic Panlong agreement. KIO Secretary Dr. La Ja said the KIO had informed their stand to the junta's Supremo Snr Gen Than Shwe in a letter sent to him in September. The letter states that if the junta accepts the Panlong Agreement and is willing to uphold, the KIO is ready to abandon arms struggle, in which case it will not be necessary to transform its armed wing into the 'Border Guard Force' proposed by the regime. "We are bringing up the Panlong Agreement again because we have to reconsider about the 'Union' of Burma. If there is a 'Union', we must recognize the 'Union' because the 'Union' emerged from the 'Panlong' Agreement," Dr. La Ja told Mizzima from the KIO headquarters in Laiza in Kachin State. "The letter was sent for understanding and consideration, not for talks. We cannot say yet if they will respond and how so. It's up to them," he added. The architect of Burma's independence General Aung San and leaders of ethnic Kachin, Chin and Shan gathered in Panlong town of Shan State and signed the historic 'Panlong Agreement', which guaranteed equal rights for all ethnic nationalities on 12 February 1947. While the KIO is emphasizing on equal rights, the Thailand-based Kachin News Group (KNG) said, the Kachin Independence Army's 4th brigade based in Lao Kai region of Northern Shan State is being pressurized by the regime to divide its troops into three small groups or leave their area. However, Dr. La Ja denied of the information. "We have not been informed. We have not received any letter regarding withdrawal of the 4th Brigade from the area. There is no problem for the 4th Brigade," he said, adding that there are no tensions amounting between the KIO and the regime in recent days. While the regime has set October as the deadline for all ceasefire groups to transform their armies into the Border Guard Force (BGF), KIO along with several other groups have rejected the proposed but offered another proposal of transforming into a 'Kachin Regional Guard Force' (KRGF). "We will wait and see how they respond to our counter proposal. We expect a positive response from the regime. We told them that we accepted transformation and transition but we have to seek a solution peacefully and amicably," Dr. La Ja said, adding that the KIO do not like to solve the problem militarily. Though the KIO and other ceasefire groups are under pressure for transformation, several KIO leaders have withdrawn their membership from the group to prepare for candidacy in the 2010 election. In early September, six KIO high-ranking officials including Dr. Mana Tu Ja, vice-president (2) of the KIO, announced their resignation from the armed group in order to prepare and form the Kachin State Progressive Party (KSPP), to be contesting in the 2010 elections. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K), another Kachin ceasefire armed group, has accepted the junta's offer of transforming their army into the BGF. |
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