Burma Update

scmp - Saturday, May 22, 2004

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Yangon
Myanmar's junta has set strict rules for its constitutional talks which went into their fifth day yesterday, ordering up to 20 years in jail for anyone who criticises the controversial forum.

Distributing unauthorised information from the talks is also banned under legislation passed after an earlier convention collapsed in 1996, the year after Aung San Suu Kyi's pro-democracy opposition party walked out.

Under a "do's and don'ts" list at the forum, which opened on Monday, the 1,076 delegates - mostly handpicked by the government but also including independent ethnic groups - walkouts are banned.

Delegates are told not to "express disloyalty to the state" or discuss any topics outside the official agenda, and when they enter or leave the meeting hall they must bow to the national flag.

"These regulations are prescribed not for repression but for the interest of the national races and the delegates," Information Minister Brigadier-General Kyaw Hsan told delegates, according to the state press.

Apart from matters of national security, the junta has guidelines for the conduct and even personal hygiene of the delegates, who come from all walks of life including farmers, workers and academics.

"The delegates are advised to put on suitable clothes, to avoid having a bath at an unreasonable time or eat junk food and are advised to go to hospital even if they catch cold," General Kyaw Hsan said.

"Only wholesome meals that are conducive to the rainy season are serviced to the delegates," he said.

The venue, a grim and austere complex north of the capital surrounded by military bases, was chosen to deter outside scrutiny.

Most foreign media organisations were barred from entering the country to report on the event and Yangon-based journalists were permitted to cover only the brief opening ceremony.

The Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontieres has accused the junta of using intimidation and censorship to stop any information from leaking out of the remote site.

On 18 May 2004, Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt briefed the military junta’s delegation which will attend the session on consideration of the 2nd periodic report of Myanmar by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child on 26 May 2004. The requirement of a briefing from the military’s top honcho indicates obsession with power, authority and control – the root cause of the political impasse in Myanmar.

The fear of losing power even at the junta's own choreographed pace of national reconciliation is all pervading and therefore, the exclusion of National League for Democracy and many ethnic nationality groups in the ongoing national constitutional convention, the first step of the seven points roadmap declared by General Khin Nyunt, which started on 17 May 2004. The NLD was forced to opt out of the talks as its leaders, Aung San Suu Kyi and Vice Chairman Tin Oo, both of whom have been detained since May 2003 are still under house arrest. The military also turned down the NLD’s key demand to reopen all of its offices before the convention. Currently, only the party's headquarter in Rangoon is open.

Is the Burmese military junta serious about its seven point road map announced by Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt on 30 August 2003? The seven point roadmap was basically an attempt to scuttle the roadmap proposed by Thailand Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in July 2003 rather than commitment for national reconciliation.

Nonetheless, the military junta rechristened as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has so far managed to take the members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) for a ride through its “one step forward and two step backward policy” towards national reconciliation. In a significant departure from its policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of member-states, ASEAN Foreign Ministers demanded the release of Aung San Suu Kyi at the June 2003 summit at Phnom Penh. They later on tamely accepted Myanmar's claim that it is committed to democracy at the Bali summit in October 2003. In addition to "seven-point road map" to democracy, the ASEAN leaders also accepted the junta's explanation that by moving Suu Kyi from a secret prison to imprisonment in her home, it has made a major political concession to the jailed leader. Consequently, additional sanctions by the United States under the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act and the European Union after the arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi proved inadequate to flinch the military generals.

A year has passed, yet Suu Kyi remains under house arrest. The UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Sergio Phinhero visited the country in November 2003 followed by Amnesty International in December 2003. The Secretary General’s Special Envoy, Ismail Rizali visited in March 2004. The generals always gave the vague indication that Suu Kyi would be released before the start of national convention. It is clear that international community has been taken for a ride.

Human rights situation in Myanmar remains deplorable. The report of the Special Rapporteur (E/CN.4/2004/33) is a clear testimony. In addition to the events of 30 May 2003, the corresponding, subsequent and continuing violations of human rights, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in its resolution on the situtaion of human rights in Myanmar of 21 April 2004 expressed concerns about extrajudicial killings, rape and other forms of sexual violence persistently carried out by members of the armed forces, continuing use of torture, renewed instances of political arrests and continuing detentions, including of prisoners whose sentences have expired, prisoners held incommunicado while awaiting trial, forced relocation, destruction of livelihoods and confiscations of land by the armed forces, forced labour, including child labour, trafficking in persons, denial of freedom of assembly, association, expression and movement, discrimination and persecution on the basis of religious or ethnic background, wide disrespect for the rule of law and lack of independence of the judiciary, unsatisfactory conditions of detention, systematic use of child soldiers and violations of the rights to an adequate standard of living, such as the rights to food, medical care and education. The majority of the victims belong to ethnic minorities, women and children, especially in non-ceasefire areas. Gross and widespread human rights violations have also caused large scale internal displacement and exodus of refugees in neighbouring countries.

The exclusion of the NLD and the ethnic nationality groups clearly indicates unwillingness of the military junta to engage in any substantive reconciliation process which may diminish its absolute power. Therefore, the conclusion of the Secretary General (E/CN.4/2004/30) that “It is high time for the Government, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and ethnic nationality representatives to set aside their differences, unite for the larger cause of national reconciliation and commence substantive dialogue on ways to achieve democratic transition in Myanmar” – was unfortunate. It is not Daw Aung San Suu Kyi but the military generals who are opposed to national reconciliation. In this context, the latest statement of the Secretary General Kofi Annan of 17 May 2004 that “the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who has clearly indicated her willingness to work with the Government, and U Tin Oo, Deputy Chairman of the NLD, as well as the lifting of the remaining restrictions on the NLD, are essential if the international community is to recognize the national convention as a legitimate forum for democratization and national reconciliation in Myanmar” – is welcome.

As the SPDC initiated roadmap has failed at the outset, ASEAN members, China and India, which engage in constructive engagement with the military junta, need to change their policy. Burma’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Dr Kyaw Win, dismissing the sanctions on Burma stated in an interview to the BBC, "We (military junta) are not worried about US and European sanctions, as trade with India, China and Thailand is already good." Because of the economic and political patronage of the Burmese dictatorship by the neighbouring countries, the sanctions of the European Union and United States have so far proved ineffective.

Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt is scheduled to start de-tour of ASEAN countries to garner support for its national convention which has been universally condemned; and is scheduled to meet Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on 4 June 2004. Prime Minister Shinawatra must unequivocally convey the disapproval of international community and absolute lack of credibility for any national convention which fails to include NLD, Aung San Suu Kyi and the ethnic nationality groups.

At the same time, Prime Minister Shinawatra must also impress upon the General Khin Nyunt that as the seven point road map has failed at the outset, the process initiated under the “Forum on International Support for National Reconciliation in Myanmar” will have to move forward with inclusion of NLD and ethnic nationality groups. For any significant national reconciliation, the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political leaders and participation of the NLD and the ethnic nationality groups are fundamental. If the military generals refuse to engage in national reconciliation processes facilitated by the United Nations and the Forum on International Support for National Reconciliation in Myanmar, time is also ripe for considering expulsion of Burma from the ASEAN.

Source: ACHR Features

Wednesday, May 19, 2004

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Bangkok
Updated at 2.02pm:
Human rights watchdog Amnesty International accused Myanmar's military junta on Wednesday of severe rights abuses against the nation's Muslim minority including eviction from ancestral land and forced labour.

The Muslims - who mostly live in Rakhine State in northwest Myanmar and are generally known as the Rohingyas - are often forced to work on roads and at military camps, Amnesty said in a statement.

"They are also subjected to forced eviction and house destruction, land confiscation and various forms of extortion and arbitrary taxation including financial restrictions on marriage," the rights group said.

Amnesty called on the junta to ease its discrimination against the group, including harsh citizenship laws which exclude many Rohingyas from being naturalised even though their ancestors have reportedly lived in the country for generations.

"The vast majority of Rohingyas are effectively denied Myanmar citizenship, rendering them stateless," Amnesty said.

"Rohingyas are often unable to seek employment outside their village or trade goods and produce unless they have official permission and obtain a pass which they must pay for and often cannot afford," Amnesty said, adding the curbs hit the group hard as about half of them were poor day labourers.

As the junta does not recognise the Rohingyas as an ethnic group, they have not been invited to the national convention currently underway in Myanmar aimed at forging a new constitution ahead of potential elections.

The convention has already drawn intense international criticism after the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, boycotted the event due to the continued house arrest of party leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

SCMP - Tuesday, May 18, 2004

LARRY JAGAN in Bangkok
Myanmar began constitutional discussions billed as the first step towards democracy yesterday amid much pomp and ceremony, but without Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party.

More than a thousand delegates, hand-picked by the junta, heard the head of the National Convention, Lieutenant-General Thein Sein, tell them that this was a historic step on the road to democracy.

The participants were also told they were to finish drawing up the principles upon which the country's new constitution will be based. After the formal opening, delegates were assigned to committees to begin their work. The delegates will remain at the convention venue for weeks or months until the charter is hammered out.

But the absence of Ms Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) is a blow to the credibility of the government's national reconciliation process. The US and European embassies also boycotted the opening ceremony because of the NLD's decision not to participate.

"The NLD does not believe that it will be able to benefit the nation by participating in the National Convention," party chairman Aung Shwe said. The fact that two of the party's leaders, Ms Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, are still under house arrest made it impossible for the NLD to realistically consider itself part of the National Convention.

An Asian diplomat in Yangon said: "The problem is that although Prime Minister Khin Nyunt understands the importance of including the pro-democracy parties in the National Convention, his superior General Than Shwe sees no need to involve them in drawing up the new constitution."

General Than Shwe's antipathy towards Ms Suu Kyi is well known. He has also frequently told the UN envoy to Myanmar, Razali Ismail, that under the country's reconciliation process, political parties would contest fresh elections once the new constitution was ratified and that there was no real role for them before that.

The tension between the country's three top generals has brought the reconciliation process to a halt. The pragmatists around General Khin Nyunt have been frustrated by the slow pace of reform.

It appears that the prime minister's days may be numbered.

And unless General Than Shwe decides to push the dialogue process ahead personally, the chances of political reform in the coming months is extremely remote.

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse and Associated Press

SCMP - Monday, May 17, 2004

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Yangon
Myanmar's military regime has made elaborate preparations for a constitutional convention beginning today, establishing a mini-town outside Yangon to host about 1,000 delegates.

State media reports have boasted that the representatives will be able to take in a movie, work out at a gym, have a makeover at a beauty salon, or seek medical treatment at an on-site clinic. But despite the propaganda, visitors to the revamped complex, which was originally a meeting centre for a state-run social group, describe it as grim and isolated.

"The convention venue must be seen to be believed," said one witness, adding that a solitary access road leads to the site where delegates will be confined for the duration of the convention, which could take months.

"It's isolated and smack in the middle of nowhere surrounded by treeless paddy fields, making it impossible for anyone to approach it undetected ... and, to top it all, it's a military cantonment."

The delegates will be charged with thrashing out a constitution for Myanmar, but without the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), and other ethnic groups, which have declared a boycott.

Myanmar's junta insisted on Saturday that the forum would go ahead. It also said the NLD's demands for its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, to be freed and reforms made to the convention format were unreasonable.

Foreign journalists have been barred from covering the event, but Yangon-based correspondents for foreign news groups are expected to be transported to the venue to attend the opening ceremony.

Its location, chosen to deter any unwelcome outside scrutiny, is about 40km north of Yangon, on a site bordered by military bases.

Apart from a large hall and segregated hostels, the complex also has a photo studio, post office, general store, sports facilities and fax and e-mail services, according to the state press. As many of the delegates are elderly, a hospital and dental clinic will provide everything from surgery to traditional medicine.

Guards have blocked journalists attempting to inspect the venue and an official "do and don't" list sets restrictions on their activities from today, including a ban on recording equipment.

SCMP - Monday, May 17, 2004

ASSOCIATED PRESS in Bangkok
Updated at 1.58pm:
Thailand's prime minister warned on Monday that Myanmar's reputation will suffer after its military government decided to proceed with a constitutional convention without the party of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra also said he is disappointed at the lack of progress toward democracy in the neighbouring country, which has been under military rule since 1962.

"I don't feel comfortable because we expect all the parties concerned must be included," he said, adding that he would have "certainly" preferred Ms Suu Kyi's participation.

Myanmar's current junta, which has been in power since 1988, opened a National Convention on Monday to write a new Constitution, billing it as the first step in its seven-oint road map to democracy.

However, Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party is boycotting the meeting because the junta refused to release her from house arrest or allow the reopening of its party offices.

"I am so worried that they [Myanmar] are holding the convention without the presence of the NLD," Mr Thaksin said.

"I will urge the minister of foreign affairs to ask Myanmar what they have in mind because a meeting without the participation of the opposition party is affecting the international image of Myanmar," he told reporters.

Thaksin wathe first Southeast Asian leader to have commented on the National Convention or the NLD's boycott. Other countries have so far remained silent on NLD's absence, which has been criticised by the United States and the United Nations.

Mr Thaksin, who had briefly tried to push political reconciliation in Myanmar, said that as a "middle man to push for democracy in Myanmar I also feel tired with the lack of progress."

Also Monday, about a dozen Myanmar dissidents living in Thailand held a noisy demonstration outside the Myanmar Embassy, demanding the military immediately hand over power to the NLD, which had won a landslide victory in the 1990 elections.

In neighbouring Cambodia, the opposition Sam Rainsy Party issued a statement, reiterating "its strong and unwavering support" for Ms Suu Kyi.

"The SRP condemns the sham May 17th constitutional convention orchestrated by the hardline military regime, and demands the immediate release of Ms Suu Kyi and other prisoners of conscience," the statement said.

House of Lords

Thursday, 13 May 2004.

The House met at eleven of the clock (Prayers having been read earlier at the Judicial Sitting by the Lord Bishop of Portsmouth): The CHAIRMAN OF COMMITTEES on the Woolsack.

Burma: Human Rights

Baroness Cox asked Her Majesty's Government:
What is their response to reports of continuing violations of human rights of ethnic national groups in Burma by the State Peace and Development Council.

The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean): My Lords, we remain deeply concerned about the human rights situation in Burma and, in particular, that affecting ethnic groups. The UK co-sponsored a widely supported resolution at the UN Commission on Human Rights on 21 April that condemned human rights violations suffered by ethnic groups in Burma. We fully support the efforts of Sergio Pinheiro, the UN special rapporteur for human rights in Burma, and have called on the SPDC to co-operate fully with him and allow him to visit Burma regularly.

Baroness Cox: My Lords, I thank the Minister for that reply, which gives considerable encouragement to the ethnic national groups. However, is she aware that, in two recent visits, I have seen the plight of many thousands of people from those ethnic national groups, such as the Karen, the Karenni, the Shan and the Chin peoples? They are forced to hide in the jungle with no access to shelter, medical care or food, having been forced to flee from their villages because of continuing atrocities by government soldiers, such as torture, rape, murder and forced labour. Can the noble Baroness say whether Her Majesty's Government will consult those ethnic groups with a view to providing humanitarian assistance to those internally displaced people, who are suffering and dying with no aid whatever?

Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean: My Lords, I am particularly aware of what is happening to these ethnic groups because I have read the noble Baroness's report, which she kindly circulated following her most recent visit. A terrible situation is, indeed, affecting the Karen and Karenni. Approximately 140,000 refugees-mostly Karen and Karenni-are living in camps on the Thai/Burmese border and many more-up to 1 million, I understand-are living as illegal immigrants in Thailand itself.

We are the largest EU donor of humanitarian assistance to Burma, and we want to ensure that any humanitarian assistance is properly targeted. One problem that we have at present is that of entering the areas to ensure that any money that is donated particularly to those groups goes where it is intended. I take the noble Baroness's point that these groups are in particular need, but I hope she will also understand our concern that it should be made absolutely clear that money meant for those groups reaches them. That is why my opening Answer placed so much emphasis on ensuring that the UN rapporteur accesses the right areas, as that will enable us to obtain a clearer picture. I hope that there will be a developing dialogue on this issue.

Lord Avebury: My Lords, is the noble Baroness aware that none of the three bodies charged with reconvening the national conference, which was adjourned in 1996 and is due to meet for the first time on Monday, contains representatives from the ethnic minorities, or of the NLD for that matter? Will minority delegates to the convention be chosen by the ethnic minorities themselves, as they hoped when they met the UN special envoy? And will they be able to discuss the incorporation of rights into the proposed constitution, enshrining rights of ethnic minority civilians, to prevent the abuses which have taken place by the military, as mentioned by the noble Baroness? Those abuses include rapes, torture, murder, forced relocations and confiscation of property, and were cited by the US representative at the recent meeting of the Commission on Human Rights.

Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean: My Lords, my short answer to the noble Lord's question, which is very sensible and properly directed, is that we shall not know what is going to happen until next Monday, when the convention reconvenes in order to draw up the new constitution for Burma. I understand that some of the ethnic groups have been approached, but the main body of exchange is between the regime and Aung San Suu Kyi's party. We do not know whether she will be invited to join the reconvened talks on Monday. As I understand it, a number of the ethnic groups are waiting to see what happens to Aung San Suu Kyi-that is, whether she is invited to join and whether she decides to take up that invitation-before they make their own decisions about joining the discussions.

Lord Alton of Liverpool: My Lords, will the Minister confirm that the meeting held in Rangoon in January between General Bo Mya, who is holder of the Burma Star and has led the Karen for the past 55 years, was at least a welcome first step and that we should do all that we can to encourage the process of dialogue and engagement? Will she also confirm that, if the military junta simply hand-picks representatives from the ethnic minorities, that will not secure a long-term peace? The figures with whom they engage must be legitimate and authentic, as in the case of General Bo Mya. Following my own visits to both sides of the Burma border and to the Karen camps, to which the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, referred, perhaps I may underline the importance of what she said to the House. Even though engagement and dialogue are taking place, the continuing scale of atrocities there must not be overlooked. Rape continues to be used as a weapon of war, and the destruction of villages and the massive displacement of large numbers of internally displaced people continue to take place.

Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean: My Lords, the noble Lord is right, and the note of scepticism that he introduced is entirely proper and understandable. I thank him, as well as the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, for all the work that he has done. Of course, Her Majesty's Government are one of the strongest critics of human rights violations. We repeatedly raise our concerns about all types of human rights violations and about the consistent pattern of violations which have affected the different ethnic groups over many, many years.

The noble Lord is right to say that we are seeking a genuine process of exchange. Of course, we do not want the regime to hand-pick the people in the convention. The noble Lord, Lord Avebury, made the point that those people must be genuinely representative of their communities. We are sceptical about the regime's motives-there is no doubt about that. However, we have an avenue open and we should work to try to bring some influence to bear in the best way possible, as was the case in the discussions which took place in April, to which the noble Lord referred. During the course of the next couple of weeks, I believe that we shall be in a better position to make a judgment about whether this is a genuine initiative.

Lord Clarke of Hampstead: My Lords, will the Government consider urging the United Nations Security Council to impose an arms embargo on the regime in Burma?

Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean: My Lords, I am afraid that this is one of those occasions when we come up against the difficulty posed by Security Council resolutions. As the noble Lord will know, they are not always easy to secure when some on the Security Council do not take the same view as we do. We have been able to make some progress in terms of General Assembly resolutions but, alas, not in terms of Security Council resolutions in the way that my noble friend indicated. That is not for want of trying behind the scenes. I assure my noble friend that we shall continue to do all that we can to draw the human rights violations in Burma to the attention of those on the Security Council who we believe should have a rather more robust attitude.

Lord Elton: My Lords, is Burma not more likely to be responsive to the views of ASEAN than to those of the United Nations? What are the Government doing to persuade ASEAN to express its views on this matter?

Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean: My Lords, we regularly raise our concerns on Burma with our Asian partners, and we try to encourage them to press for improvements in Burma's human rights record. Most recently, my honourable friend Mike O'Brien did so at the Asia/Europe Meeting (ASEM) of Foreign Ministers, which took place in Kildare on 18 April. My honourable friend was able to issue a very forthright statement. He said:

"If the military regime can deliver what it purports to promise-to release the democratic opposition, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and to allow all parties to participate in a fully functioning and representative National Convention-these will be important steps towards national reconciliation".

We are holding out for that possibility. However, as I said to the noble Lord, Lord Alton, let us not lose our healthy scepticism in view of what we all know has been the record of this regime.

Lord Hylton: My Lords-

scmp - Saturday, May 15, 2004

ASSOCIATED PRESS in Yangon
Myanmar's main pro-democracy party said yesterday it would not attend a constitution-drafting convention next week because the military government has refused to release its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and accept other demands.

It is a major blow to efforts towards ending the political deadlock in the Southeast Asian nation, which has been ruled by the military since 1962.

Government-run radio and television announced last night that the convention would proceed with the other delegates.

The announcement noted the position of Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), but said the opposition party had made "unreasonable demands".

It said Ms Suu Kyi and NLD vice-chairman Tin Oo, both under house arrest, would remain detained "for the time being to ensure the peaceful development of the National Convention".

The ruling junta has portrayed the National Convention, which starts on Monday, as a first step in a seven-point road map to democracy. Observers say the convention would be meaningless without the NLD.

Party chairman Aung Shwe said the government turned down the party's demand that it reopen all party offices and free Nobel Peace Prize laureate Suu Kyi from house arrest before the convention.

"The NLD does not believe that it will be able to benefit the nation by participating in the National Convention. Therefore, the NLD decided that it will not attend the convention," he said after meeting Ms Suu Kyi at her residence.

Myanmar's second-biggest pro-democracy party, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, also said yesterday it would not attend the convention.

The Shan State Kokang Democratic party, which also supports the NLD, said earlier it would stay away.

That leaves only seven small parties at the convention, along with representatives of civic society and some ethnic groups.

The government had invited five NLD members, but not Ms Suu Kyi or Tin Oo, who have been under detention - in custody and later under house arrest - since last May.

The junta organised a similar convention in 1993, but it collapsed after the NLD walked out in 1995, saying that it was being forced to rubber-stamp the junta's decisions.

The junta says the new convention will resume where the previous one left off. The earlier convention had set six basic principles for a new constitution, including a major role for the military in the country's political future.

The current junta came to power in 1988 after crushing a pro-democracy movement. It called elections in 1990, but refused to hand over power when the NLD won.

scmp - Wednesday, May 5, 2004

SIMON MONTLAKE in Yangon
Plagued by blackouts in the hot summer, residents in Myanmar's capital have long relied on private generators for electricity - Yangon's pavements are choked with oil-fired generators imported from China, though at about 45 US cents per litre it is a luxury many cannot afford.

Some residents joke that generators are the biggest growth market in a country that has become a byword for economic stagnation. But observers say Myanmar's deepening poverty and crumbling social services have grim consequences.

The country has the lowest life expectancy in Southeast Asia and among the worst health indicators of any country.

An aid agency chief warns that malnutrition is spreading as families struggle to put meals on their table.

"There's a growing section of the population that's finding it hard to survive. We see a great deal of economic stress," he said.

Adding to the misery are US trade sanctions imposed last year in retaliation for the regime's brutal crackdown on Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition movement. Tens of thousands of female garment workers lost their jobs as Taiwanese and South Korean investors pulled the plug, though some have since resumed exports to non-US markets.

Observers say an increase in women forced into prostitution or trafficked into overseas brothels could be an indirect effect of the closures.

Even those in Myanmar who do have jobs say it is becoming hard to afford basic goods and services.

"If you live in this country, it's not enough to have one job. You need two," said an entertainer in Mandalay.

Although rice prices have slid in recent months after the government imposed a temporary ban on exports, the costs of other essentials are rising.

A diplomat who tracks prices said this has not fuelled inflation because there is less money circulating after a series of bank failures last year.

He said the stricken financial sector and the US trade ban have made Myanmar more dependant on border trade with Thailand and China.

But despite the faltering economy, Yangon is in the midst of a property boom as local investors scramble to build offices and condominiums.

The military junta has begun sprucing up Yangon in anticipation of hosting the presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2006.

Construction has begun on several high-rise buildings along the main highway to the airport.

Mobile phone use is also growing in Yangon and other cities, despite a staggering US$5,000 initial connection charge.

Such bubbles of wealth provoke an angry reaction from ordinary people, who see the regime's nepotism at work.

"The money only goes to their families, we don't get anything," laments a rickshaw driver. "They don't know how to share."

TEHERAN TIMES

YANGON (AFP) -- The stage appears set for Myanmar's junta to launch a national constitutional convention on May 17 as scheduled, with Aung San Suu Kyi's pro-democracy opposition taking part, analysts say.

The military regime's refusal to release the opposition leader from house arrest, and hostile exchanges between the government and opposition, indicated last month that the opposition's involvement was in doubt.

But the National League for Democracy (NLD) said last week it was almost certain to attend as it expected the junta to accept its proposed changes to the procedures under which the convention will be run.

"We have come to the conclusion that it is in the interests of the people and the nation for us to attend the national convention," NLD secretary U Lwin said Friday of the forum, which is aimed at writing a new constitution. "We have been assured that they would consider our suggestions positively. Therefore, it is more or less certain that we will be attending the national convention."
Analysts are hopeful that Aung San Suu Kyi, who they originally expected to be freed in mid-April, could be released just before the convention begins.

"We are now looking at Aung San Suu Kyi to be released about one week before the convention," said one well-informed source close to the national reconciliation process.

Observers in Yangon pointed to a general improvement in the political mood in the military-run state ahead of the convention, the first step in a so-called "road map to democracy" supposedly leading to free elections.

Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt, who unveiled the road map last year and is keen for as many parties and ethnic groups to attend the forum as possible, appears to be willing to accommodate the NLD's suggestions, analysts say.

But the final decision rests with Myanmar's leader Senior General Than Shwe, whose antipathy towards the NLD, and Aung San Suu Kyi in particular, is well known.

"A memorandum of understanding has already been signed, so to speak, and only the signature of Senior General Than Shwe is needed to firm up final agreement," one analyst told AFP.

Sources close to the regime said Than Shwe has already made preparations for the convention to go ahead by finalizing a new military leadership lineup, and consolidating his political power base.
"I see light at the end of the tunnel," another analyst said.

Major ethnic political parties have said they were waiting to see what decision the NLD made before announcing whether they would attend the convention.

Aung San Suu Kyi and the rest of the NLD leadership were taken into detention a year ago during political unrest that triggered a sweeping crackdown on the party including the closure of all its offices.

Most of the opposition figures have now been freed, and in April the government allowed the party's Yangon headquarters to reopen.

SCMP - Saturday, May 1, 2004


SIMON MONTLAKE in Yangon
A torn canvas painting of Aung San Suu Kyi flaps in the hot breeze blowing through the timber-framed headquarters of the National League for Democracy.

Their leader may still be under house arrest but there is no mistaking the defiant bustle of a movement that has survived years of repression.

Volunteers are busy stacking pamphlets and unpacking T-shirts and red baseball caps emblazoned with Ms Suu Kyi's steely gaze.

Ageing party members huddle around scarred wooden desks to digest the latest developments and swap gossip on friends and family.

Until a few weeks ago, this building was padlocked and dozens of party members were still in detention.

Now only Ms Suu Kyi and her deputy, U Tin Oo, are under house arrest, almost one year after a crackdown that left scores of opposition activists dead or missing.

But the big question remains: is the junta serious about negotiating a way out of Myanmar's political stalemate?

Opposition activists and sympathisers are deeply suspicious of the regime's plans to stage a constitution-writing forum from May 17 as part of its so-called "road map to democracy".

Many people fear a rubberstamp assembly packed with regime stooges will force through a constitution that reinforces the military's hold on power.

"The military dictates the rules, so how can there be any free discussion?" asks one. "It's all a game, nothing more."

A few miles away at Ms Suu Kyi's lakeside villa, NLD executives met this week for the first time to consider whether or not to attend the forum.

Party spokesman U Lwin said on Thursday that it would attend provided certain conditions were met, including the release of Ms Suu Kyi.

While Britain and other countries have long insisted that a convention without the unfettered participation of Ms Suu Kyi and other opposition leaders would not be credible, many are also anxious to see progress.

Diplomats and sources close to the peace process say that after so many false starts, pressure is mounting on Ms Suu Kyi to reach a compromise with the regime.

Thailand and other countries in Southeast Asia are desperate to bring Myanmar into the fold and show that engagement works where western sanctions have failed.

"The NLD is in a tough place. Either they participate in something odious and undemocratic, or they refuse and get labelled as intransient," a western diplomat said.

Myanmar's last constitutional assembly collapsed in 1996 when NLD delegates walked out in protest at unfair procedures and closed debate.

A similar failure this time around would spell more misery for an impoverished nation starved of aid and investment.

Isolated by sanctions and consumer boycotts, Myanmar's economy is kept afloat by border trade with Thailand and China.

Observers say there is little sign of real growth, despite a rash of new buildings thrown up in Yangon by regime cronies.

Some aid workers complain that US sanctions have hurt the poor, not the generals, but locals are quick to blame nepotism and greed for their plight.

"The money only goes to their families, we don't get anything," laments a rickshaw driver.

"They don't know how to share."