Burma Update

scmp - Friday, March 31, 2006


AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in in Kuala Lumpur
Asean yesterday chided China and India for not pushing Myanmar to move towards democracy, with the bloc's chief, Ong Keng Yong, questioning their commitment to the grouping.

"I think we should ask our friends in China and India to be more persuasive," the Association of Southeast Asian Nations secretary-general said.

"What's the point of you being a dialogue partner when you are not seen to be contributing to the credibility and stature of the organisation? We can persuade them, but ultimately it is their decision," he said.

In unusually frank comments that reflect growing concern over the Myanmar junta's intransigence, Mr Ong said he was disappointed with Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar's recent visit to Yangon.

Mr Hamid was sent as an Asean envoy to check on the regime's claims it is shifting towards democracy, but despite months of negotiations he was refused permission to see detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"I am disappointed that this opportunity has not yielded the kind of sweeter fruits that we wanted," Mr Ong said.

He signalled the gloves would come off when Southeast Asian foreign ministers met soon in Bali, where both Mr Hamid and his Myanmar counterpart Nyan Win will give briefings on the visit.

"We see there will be a good exchange of views. This is no longer one-sided," Mr Ong said.

Asked what steps Asean could take to exert pressure on Myanmar, he said the bloc had few options and that there was no mechanism to expel a member.

"Asean, you know, loves to look after everybody's ego and interests ... so there is a very limited space for us to manoeuvre," he said.

"The reason why Myanmar has done what it has done is because of its own national interest, but also maybe they feel Asean is not in a position to dictate terms to them."

Under intense pressure from other members, Myanmar deferred the Asean chairmanship which it was due to hold next year, and Mr Ong said it would not take up the role the following year either.

"They are not ready to take over the chair after the Philippines, so according to our alphabetical rotation it goes to Singapore," he said.

Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo recently said China's and India's open policy on Myanmar diluted the impact of western sanctions and Asean should consider distancing itself from Myanmar if it refused to reform.

China is Myanmar's staunchest international ally and a major trading partner.

It has always refused to become involved in the "internal affairs" of the country, which has been ruled by the military for four decades

scmp - Wednesday, March 1, 2006


IAN HOLLIDAY
In Myanmar, March 2 resonates down the years as the day on which, in 1962, a military coup overthrew the democracy created at independence from Britain in 1948. That established the army as the arbiter of the people's fate. Today, on the eve of the bleak 44th anniversary of that event, a military junta continues to hold sway over the country's 55 million citizens.

In almost every domain, the governance record of the world's longest-running military dictatorship is abysmal. Myanmar currently finds itself near the bottom of all the best international league tables, and near the top of all the worst. A feeble economy and zero transparency keep company with endemic corruption, booming narcotics industries and repression.

Military dictatorship has been particularly catastrophic for the many ethnic groups that make up roughly one-third of the population.

Minority groups are still subject to forced labour, forced relocation, rape, torture and extrajudicial killing. They have borne the brunt of the army's often violent rule.

The game plan devised by army leaders to manage Myanmar's ethnic conundrum is devastatingly simple. As long ago as the 1950s, military strategists drew parallels with Yugoslavia. As the Balkan wars gathered pace in the 1990s, they reinforced their determination never to allow Myanmar to disintegrate. Relentlessly, the junta stresses national unity in a Myanmar context.

The brutality of ethnic repression is one of the great indictments of army rule. At the same time, however, Myanmar's ethnic conundrum is one of the major reasons why neighbouring Asian countries continue to offer reluctant support to the junta. The last thing leaders in Bangkok, Beijing and New Delhi want is ethnic warfare on their long Myanmar borders.

Here lies the biggest problem for critics of the regime. Part of the counterpoint to authoritarian rule is obvious. One day, hopefully not too far in the future, Myanmar must make a transition to democracy. Different routes are conceivable, but the desirability of the final destination is not seriously questioned. Even the military junta claims to be heading in this direction.

However, in Myanmar more than almost anywhere else, democracy is unlikely to be an all-purpose solvent. Rather, sustained and detailed attention must also be paid to the country's ethnic problem. This is the greatest challenge for would-be reformers.

To date, however, little has been done to meet the challenge. The National League for Democracy, led from house arrest by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, rarely addresses Myanmar's ethnic question. Student activists who helped spark mass pro-democracy protests in 1988, and were subsequently jailed, equally have no clear policy.

All those who wish Myanmar well need to look at the many institutional devices created around the world to govern ethnically fragmented socie-ties. Merely calling for democracy is no longer sufficient. It is therefore time for the Myanmar debate to turn to detailed democratic blueprints. Mechanisms known to distribute power across society, rather than concentrate it at the centre, are essential components of a post-authoritarian future.

As well as deploring nearly half a century of ethnic repression by the military junta, opposition leaders need to think seriously about alternatives for a country in which the ethnic conundrum is more pressing than any other.

Ian Holliday is dean of the faculty of humanities and social sciences at City University of Hong Kong.