Burma Update

SCMP - Friday, September 26, 2003


REUTERS in Yangon
Myanmar's neighbours have stepped up pressure on its military rulers to free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

A second envoy arrived yesterday for talks - a day after another left Yangon empty-handed.

Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai held talks in the capital yesterday with Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt on the junta's democracy plans.

But Mr Surakiart declined to say if he learned when Ms Suu Kyi would be released.

He went to Yangon as the envoy of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and met Khin Nyunt for 90 minutes before paying a courtesy call on the isolated country's leader, Senior General Than Shwe.

"I have listened regarding Myanmar's seven-point road map and received a lot of information, and Myanmar's leadership has promised to give full co-operation in drugs eradication," Mr Surakiart said when he returned to Bangkok.

But he would not provide any details on the discussion related to Ms Suu Kyi, the Nobel peace laureate who has been detained by the ruling junta for nearly four months.

"I won't tell, but what I can tell is that we discussed all the issues," he said.

There is concern next month's Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit in Bali could be embarrassed if the military keeps the Nobel Peace Prize winner, whose plight has sparked international outrage and western sanctions, isolated.

Asean, usually loathe to criticise the internal affairs of its members, issued a sharp rebuke to Yangon after Ms Suu Kyi was detained on May 30 following a bloody clash between her supporters and government backers.

Ms Suu Kyi is recuperating in a private Yangon hospital after major surgery for gynaecological problems last week.

Myanmar has said it will free her when the political temperature cools.

Larry Jagan
Thu Sep 25th, 2003

International efforts are once again being stepped up to secure the release of Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, with Indonesia's special envoy Ali Alatas seeing her in Rangoon and UN envoy on Burma Razali Ismail due to go there in a few days.

Alatas, former foreign minister of Indonesia, conveyed to Burma's top generals the concerns of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean), the region's main diplomatic grouping, about Suu Kyi's continued detention.

Indonesia is the Asean chair this year and host to the 9th leaders' summit on Oct.7-8 in Bali island, where the Burma issue is certain to come up.

Appreciate letter

Meantime, UN envoy Razali Ismail is to visit Rangoon on Sept 30 and will be trying once again to get the stalled dialogue process restarted.

After handing over a letter of concern about Suu Kyi to Burmese officials and meeting with top leader Gen Than Shwe, and Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt, Alatas told reporters in Rangoon that he was assured by both leaders that ''they appreciate the content of the letter and they would carefully consider the views and suggestions''.

Alatas did not meet the opposition leader because of her recent gynaecological surgery, but remains confident that Burma's military rulers do not intend to keep Suu Kyi in detention indefinitely. He was not, however, given any time frame for her release.

The detention of Aung San Suu Kyi is ''becoming increasingly counterproductive," Alatas was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Successful operation

The visits by Alatas and Razali come at a time when ironically, Suu Kyi's major operation in a private hospital in Rangoon may well provide the generals with a way out of their predicament -- how to release her without appearing to give in to external, especially western, pressure.

"The operation went well and the patient is back to normal - physically, mentally and spiritually," said Aung San Suu Kyi's physician Dr Tin Myo Win, who attended the operation.

The opposition leader is still recuperating in the hospital, but is expected to be discharged soon after the final stitches are removed.

She has been incommunicado for nearly four months now, after she was taken in under 'protective custody' following an attack by vigilantes suspected to be with the Rangoon military government.

Earlier in September, Red Cross representatives were allowed to see her and were able to dispel fears that she was on hunger strike.

But the fact that Suu Kyi's medical operation appears to have been successful will not lessen international pressure on Rangoon to release her immediately and unconditionally.

Diplomats in Rangoon believe the military regime will return the opposition leader to her residence when she is discharged from hospital and placed under house arrest. "The military authorities have a good humanitarian reason to move her home now," said a Rangoon-based Asian
ambassador.

The operation has certainly given the generals an opportunity to take a major face-saving measure that could help reduce pressure from their Asian neighbours at least - especially at the Asean summit in Bali.

Significant gesture

Southeast Asian leaders are hoping to find a way of preventing the issue of Aung San Suu Kyi's release and Burma's failure to introduce political reform from dominating the summit.

"We are expecting a significant gesture from the regime in the next two weeks leading up to the summit," a senior Bangkok-based diplomat who regularly deals with Rangoon told IPS.

"Placing her under house arrest and resuming the constitutional process would reduce the Asean pressure on Yangon (Rangoon), at least in the next few months."

"It is in the interest of Asean and (Burma) that no extraneous issue such as the problem of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi would mar the deliberations of Asean," as Alatas himself said.

By moving Suu Kyi home, after Alatas' visit to Rangoon, the generals would also give Asean some credit for quiet diplomacy and avoid its move being linked to US pressure or Razali's visit to Rangoon.

But apart from seeing Suu Kyi released, foreign governments - even Asean - will want to see some progress in the reconciliation process in the near future.

The new prime minister, Gen Khin Nyunt, will have to prove the government's sincerity about introducing political and economic reform in the near future.

"General Khin Nyunt needs time to be able to press ahead with his plans for change," said a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat. He needs a honeymoon period, free of overt pressure say three months or a hundred days."

Seven-point road map

He has announced a seven-point road map to democracy that would involve drawing up a new constitution and holding new elections. The government set up a National Convention - comprising more than 700 handpicked representatives - to draw up a new constitution more than 10 years ago.

The convention has not met since 1996 after Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), walked out and accused the military authorities of not allowing a free debate or discussion and simply using it to rubberstamp decisions already made by the generals.

Now it seems the government is preparing to reconvene the National Convention. A new steering committee has been named, partly because some of the previous members had passed away, and assigned tasks.

Apart from several members who are attorneys or have a strong legal background, many of the members are from military intelligence and close to Khin Nyunt.

While they are likely to support the military intelligence chief's views and accommodate Suu Kyi and her party, there remains evidence that Rangoon is prepaying to bypass her anyway.

In the past few weeks, the regime has been organising pro-government rallies supporting Khin Nyunt's road map to democracy. The United Solidarity Development Association, a civilian organisation that the military uses to mobilise support for government policy, has been arranging these meetings.

In the past there was definitely a division within the military top brass over how to deal with Aung San Suu Kyi, with the intelligence chief favouring working with her. In recent weeks though, there have been signs that these differences have disappeared.

"Khin Nyunt is pressing on with his plans and has decided he cannot deal with the lady," said a source in Rangoon close to the intelligence chief. - IPS

SCMP - Monday, September 22, 2003

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in in Bangkok and Yangon
Aung San Suu Kyi's recovery from surgery may provide Myanmar's generals with a convenient option of shifting the democracy leader from secret detention to house arrest, analysts and diplomats said at the weekend.

The feisty opposition leader underwent a three-hour operation on Friday that was described as both major and semi-urgent by her personal physician Tin Myo Win, re-igniting international concerns about her health.

Dr Tin Myo Win said on Saturday she was recovering well after the surgery, carried out to treat gynaecological and other unspecified conditions, and was walking around. He could not give a timeframe for her discharge.

Ms Suu Kyi, 58, has been held incommunicado by Myanmar's military rulers at a secret location since being detained after her supporters were attacked by a junta-sponsored mob on May 30.

Since then and until her admission into the privately-run Asia Royal hospital last Wednesday, the only outsiders to see the leader have been the UN special envoy to Myanmar, Razali Ismail, and representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross. Red Cross officials saw her on September 6 and said that she was "well".

Analysts are now waiting to see what the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), which has not yet commented on Ms Suu Kyi's hospital treatment, will do when she is deemed fit enough to leave the clinic.

"Nobody knows here what will happen after she recovers. We don't have any information or any indication [from the junta]," an Asian diplomat said.

"They may say that for her to have good treatment, she should stay at her house rather than a government guesthouse."

The junta is under intense pressure from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) to release Ms Suu Kyi ahead of the regional group's summit in Bali on October 7.

Indonesia's former foreign minister Ali Alatas arrived in Myanmar yesterday to negotiate Ms Suu Kyi's release. Indonesia is the current chair of Asean.

Her continued detention during the summit would severely embarrass Asean, which faced international criticism in 1997 for admitting Myanmar as a member.

A source in Yangon said last week that Mr Razali would travel to Yangon next week for a 48-hour visit, sparking further anticipation that the junta may offer concessions before the Asean meeting.

The junta's shifting of Ms Suu Kyi from secret detention to house arrest "could buy them some credibility and maybe dilute international pressure, if not completely, then a little bit," said Sunai Phasuk of rights group Forum Asia.

"It would be good for Mr Razali, who is trying to get people to be patient with the SPDC, and good for Asean before the summit to see that they are giving a concession," he said.

"It's a win-win way out for everyone," he added, noting however that there would be an ongoing fight to secure her complete release and democratic reform in Myanmar, which has been ruled by the military for four decades.

A move back to her famed lake-side residence would begin a third stint of house arrest for Ms Suu Kyi, who has already spent 7 1/2 years confined to her home by the military.

Still, analysts suspect that access to her would be very much restricted and she would most likely not have access to diplomats.

Debbie Stothard of regional network Altsean-Burma agreed that the generals may send Ms Suu Kyi home, but noted it would not be long before pressure built up for her to be freed again.

"It's been generally expected that her detention would be commuted to house arrest, and this provides an opportunity to do so on humanitarian grounds," she said.

"But unless there are actual reforms and actual dialogue taking place towards reform, Asean is going to be constantly put in this position of having to defend the military regime because they can detain her as they like," Ms Stothard said.

"If her detention is actually commuted to house arrest, it is a sign that international pressure is working."

The move, however, is unlikely to satisfy the international community, including Myanmar's harshest critic, the United States.