Burma Update
News and updates on Burma24 September 2009
[ReadingRoom] News on Burma - 14/9/09
Suu Kyi party 'welcomes Myanmar amnesty' Yangon - Myanmar's main opposition party on Wednesday welcomed the release of 7,000 prisoners but reiterated calls for the ruling junta to free Aung San Suu Kyi and other political detainees. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) issued a statement almost one week after the military regime announced that it was freeing the prisoners so they could vote in elections due next year. "The NLD warmly welcomes the release of 7,114 national prisoners that included some 100 political prisoners from prisons on September 17," the statement said. "However we also call for the unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners including the NLD vice chairman Tin Oo and general secretary Aung San Suu Kyi," it said. Suu Kyi had her house arrest extended by 18 months in August after she was convicted over an incident in which an American man swam uninvited to the lakeside house where she is detained in May. Tin Oo has also been under house arrest since 2003. The statement said Suu Kyi and Tin Oo "have been always trying for dialogue and national reconciliation", as had jailed members of ethnic minority groups and students who led mass pro-democracy protests in 1988. The NLD said Tuesday that it had written to junta chief Than Shwe urging him to allow its central executive committee to meet Suu Kyi and Tin Oo so they could discuss the elections. The polls are being held under a new constitution that was passed in a controversial referendum in 2008, days after a devastating cyclone killed 138,000 people in Myanmar. Critics say the polls are a sham through which the military regime wants to legitimise its hold on power. Myanmar has been ruled by the military since 1962. Shwe Ohn invites political parties to unite for strong opposition New Delhi - The Union Democratic Alliance Organization has invited all ethnic political parties to join hands with them to form a strong opposition in the forthcoming 2010 general elections although they do no hope to win and form the government. UDAO's organizing committee member veteran politician Shwe Ohn told Mizzima that they invited the ethnic parties to join them for cooperation and coordination among themselves for the sake of democracy being ushered in Burma. "We don't expect to form the government. We just intend to win 25 per cent of the seats in Parliament and start a gradual reform movement as an opposition force. Otherwise we will not be a formidable force in Parliament," he said. A statement by the UDAO on September 17, welcomed the setting up of the Kachin State Progressive Party (KSPP) and the New Mon Party and urged other ethnic nationalities to float political parties and join them in an alliance. "Our organization is comprised of all ethnic nationalities including Shan, Burman, Kachin and Karen. We believe it will be better if all of us can cooperate. So we urged the KSPP and the Mon Party to join us because in our opinion it's better to work collectively rather than individually," Shwe Ohn said. The KSPP and the Mon Party responded to the invitation saying that it is premature to join them. The UDAO maintains it extended the invitation to join them in contesting the 2010 general elections for the benefit of a Union State. "We see the invitation as a good thing in principle. We'd like to join them because joining hands with all is best for all of us. But we have to consider the practicality and viability of the invitation. It is premature to talk of an alliance as the election law and political parties law have not yet been enacted and announced," KSPP organizing committee member Dr. Tuja told Mizzima. Moreover the KSPP is not meant for the whole country but only to represent Kachin State, he added. The New Mon Party organizing committee was formed for contesting the 2010 general elections. Its organizing committee member Dr. Nai Banya Aung Moe said, "In the theory of party politics, we should join with all if it is beneficial. But we cannot say anything at the moment as the party is yet to be registered". UDAO was formed with an 8-member organizing committee on January 26 this year and now the number has touched 16. The party is based on the Union Democracy policy and it has two main parts, the core group and the alliance group. Anyone can be a core group member regardless of their race and creed if they join the party as an individual. If a party joins the UDAO, it will be part of the alliance. The core group will be established as a party later and will be an ally of the UDAO and there will be no leading party in it. The Central Executive Committee will be selected from the CEC members of member organizations based on their performance and merit. The UDAO also extended similar invitations to the National League for Democracy (NLD) to join them in early January this year but it is leant that no response has yet been received. (Reported by Salai Han Thar San) Arrests continue in Arakan Sittwe - The Burmese military authority has continued arresting Arakanese youth and students on Monday, with the number arrested reaching 16 after a youth from Buthidaung Township in northern Arakan was taken into custody on Monday. 21-year-old Maung Naing Soe, the son of U Maung Tha Pru from Nyung Chaung Village in Buthidaung Township was arrested by officers from Special Police Force No. 2 in Rangoon. A relative of the youth told Narinjara over the phone that a special force police officer from Rangoon came to the village of Nyung Chaung and arrested him with the help of local police. Afterwards, Maung Naing Soe was taken to Buthidaung and detained at the police lock-up there. According to the source, the youth will be brought on Tuesday from Buthidaung to Rangoon where at least ten Arakanese youth have been detained since the first week of this month. The Burmese special police force has arrested many Arakanese youth in Rangoon and Arakan State since early this month on suspicion that they have connections with exiled Arakanese student groups based on the Thai-Burma border. On 7 September, special police forces arrested seven Arakanese youth and students from Layden Ward near the former University of Rangoon Art and Science in a raid of a hostel where they were living. The youth and students were identified as Ko Tun Lin, Ko Kyaw Zaw Oo, Ko Kyaw Win, Ko Khin Maung Htay, Ko Kyaw San Hlaing, Ko Zaw Tun Oo, along with one other unidentified youth. All are from Arakan State and some of them are college graduates. On 13 September, special police forces arrested another four youths in Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State. Those youth are Htoo Htoo Chay, Khing Moe Zaw, Kalur Chay, and Maung Thu. Among them, Htoo Htoo Chay is a son of well-known businessman U Kyaw Thein, who is known by local Arakanese people as Kiss Kyaw Thein. Htoo Htoo Chay is also a singer and owner of the Kiss Internet Cafe in Sittwe. A student from Sittwe said a police team raided his internet cafe and seized many documents from the shop after he was arrested. On 15 September, two youths from Mrauk U, the ancient city of Arakan, were arrested by Special Police Force No. 2 in their town and were brought to Rangoon for interrogation. On 19 September, Ko Aung Moe Zaw and another unidentified student, both from Ponna Kyunt 20 miles north of Sittwe, were arrested by special police forces. A lawyer from Sittwe confirmed the arrest and said that all the youths will be brought to Rangoon for interrogation because the case is being investigated by police there. Because authorities have been arresting Arakanese youth and activists in Arakan, many other youth and students have gone into hiding to avoid arrest themselves. It has also been learned that a youth who had been working at the Thai-Burma border revealed the inside networks of the All Arakan Student's and Youth Congress to the Burmese military junta after he surrendered and was taken into custody. The arrests began shortly thereafter. Heightened security in Shan south Come the beginning of September, several towns in southern Shan State have been on high alert with civilians being forced to take turns standing guard at night, according to local sources. In Mongkeung, 128 miles northeast of the state capital Taunggyi, there are 11 sentry posts:
"If a household member is unable to take part in sentry duty, it has to pay Kyat 1,000 ($1)," said a townsman. It is mandatory for government employees to take turns standing watch over their respective offices. The order for heightened security came from the Mongnawng-based Military Operations Command (MOC) #2 that commands the 12 infantry battalions in Loilem, Laikha, Namzang, Mongnai, Panglong, Mongpawn and Mongkeung. "We have the same situation here," said a source in Mongyai, northern Shan State, without elaborating. Col Yawdserk, leader of the non-ceasefire Shan State Army (SSA), said Naypyitaw has declared a state of war in Shan State since its attack and occupation of Kokang last month. "The government, as usual, offers little explanation," said a respected local from Panglong. "But there have been some bomb attacks here." The first bomb exploded in the police station in Quarter #1 on 2 September and the second in the house of Khin Maung Aye, Secretary of the Quarter #2 Council on 19 September. In both cases, there were some damages but no casualties. Since August, more troops, guns, ammunition and supplies are pouring into Shan State especially in the east, where the Burmese Army is facing the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and its ally the National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS). Both had rejected Naypyitaw's demand to transform their armed wings into junta-run Border Guard Forces. Media restricted in pre-election coverage - Htet Aung Kyaw The Burmese government has reportedly clamped down on media coverage in the run-up to next year's elections, according to industry workers who were barred from running news about an election forum. Around 60 people attended a discussion forum in Rangoon held by the newly-formed Democratic Party, said to be close to the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party. According to party leader Thu Wei, journalists from several weekly journals later said that they were not allowed to publish material on the forum. "[Authorities] told them that reporting of such news has not yet been permitted but the permission would come soon," he said. "Until now, there haven't been any election laws passed yet, and we still don't know when it will be held or whether it's still going to happen [in 2010] or not." He said that the meeting for the formation of the group took place under the guise of a wedding anniversary of Thu Wei and his wife, while party discussions are often billed as merit-making events. Media restrictions in Burma are amongst the most draconian in the world, with journalists deemed guilty of dissent often handed lengthy prison sentences. All published material must first be passed through the government's Censor Board. Plans for elections next year have drawn criticism, with the 2008 redrafted constitution appearing to guarantee continuation of military rule. The NLD, whose detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi is not allowed to run for office, are yet to announce whether they will participate. Senior Burmese government officials, including prime minister Thein Sein, are in New York this week to attend the United Nations General Assembly, the first time a senior-level Burmese delegation has participated in 14 years. Thu Wei said that the United States embassy in Rangoon had been "attentive" to the situation faced by opposition groups in Burma. "They have been learning about our motives… I think they are just studying the situation and waiting to see if there is any sign of change [in Burma]," he said. US, Burma look for win-win situation: Analysts - Saw Yan Naing The United States finally sent a green light to Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein and Foreign Minister Nyan Win to fly to New York to take part in the UN General Assembly, the first time in 14 years. As part of its sanction policy, the US banned Burmese officials from traveling to the US except to attend meetings of international organizations such as the United Nations. However, on his current trip, Nyan Win was allowed to visit the Burmese embassy in Washington where he met with US Sen. Jim Webb. He is now in New York to attend the general session at the UN General Assembly from Sept. 23-26 and 28-30. Gen Thein Sein will also join the UN General Assembly session. He is also expected to meet with Kurt M. Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, according to a report in the Washington Post. The Burmese generals' travel to the U.S comes at a moment when the U.S government is reviewing its foreign policy on Burma. The results are expected to be announced soon. Some Burmese observers believe the U.S and Burma may upgrade their diplomatic relationship in a compromise for common interests. Thakin Chan Tun, a veteran Burmese politician and a former Burmese ambassador to China, said Burma wants to establish a better relationship with the US. By allowing the Burmese ministers to fly to US, the U.S government may also be trying to influence the regime to release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, said Chan Tun. A Rangoon-based Arakanese politician, Aye Thar Aung, who is secretary of the Arakan League for Democracy, said US policy on Burma hasn't achieve real results in pressing the Burmese regime to change its policies, and the timing is right for a new policy on Burma. He said, however, that he doesn't think the US policy on Burma will change immediately. "If there is no significant political improvement in Burma, the policy on Burma won't change," said Aye Thar Aung. Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese observer in Chiang Mai, called the moves a good scenario for a better bilateral relationship between the US and Burma. "Instead of criticizing each other like enemies, at least the tension between the two nations will be decreased," said Aung Naing Oo. Although powerful nations such as China and Russia support Burma, the Burmese generals would like to have a relationship with the nation that has imposed economic sanctions, said Aung Naing Oo. Win Tin, a senior leader of National League for Democracy, however, said the Burmese ministers will use the trip to distract the international community while its army continues to use its divide-and-rule tactic to destroy the political opposition and ethnic armed groups. "Even if the US wants to practice constructive engagement with the Burmese regime, targeted sanctions on Burma are still needed," said Win Tin. Junta up to its old tricks, plays with the west - Larry Jagan Bangkok - Having released more than 7,000 prisoners in the last few days as part of the preparations for next year's planned polls, Burma's military rulers are up to their old tricks, according to Burmese activists and human rights groups. Most of those released are petty criminals, although around 200 political prisoners are among the freed. Many analysts believe these releases are intended to increase the credibility of next year's multi-party elections - the first in 20 years. But activists accuse the junta of releasing political prisoners to deflect international pressure, especially at the United Nations, where the annual general assembly got underway this week. Burma usually comes under intense scrutiny during this meeting. "Every one of these prisoners is a person, and it is unacceptable that the junta uses them as chips to bargain with and play the international community," said Thailand-based David Scott Mathieson, the Burma researcher for the Human Rights Watch, a U.S.-based independent organisation. At least 127 political prisoners have been freed, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners - Burma (AAPPB) in Thailand, which closely monitors the situation inside the junta-ruled South-east Asian state. So far more than 40 members of Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, have been freed, three of whom were elected as members of parliament in 1990. Six members of the 88 Generation Students group, who were sentenced to more than 60 years in jail for their alleged part in organising the Buddhist monk-led mass protests two years ago against rising food prices, were also among those released from jail. Four monks arrested after the Saffron Revolt in 2007, four journalists, 13 students and a lawyer were also freed, according to the AAPPB. "These releases are a showcase to ease international pressure," Bo Kyi, the head of the AAPPB, told Inter Press Service. "We expect more than 200 to be released within the next few days." The government's announcement last week that exactly 7,114 prisoners were to be released on compassionate grounds came on the eve of the anniversary of the current military rulers ceasing power in a bloody coup on Sep. 18, 1988, and the start of the U.N. annual meeting, to be attended by the Burmese prime minister, General Thein Sein - the highest junta leader to attend the U.N. session in more than 15 years. It is usually the foreign minister and a large team of diplomats who defend the regime during these U.N. proceedings. "The choice of 7,114 prisoners clearly smacks of the influence of astrologers," said Bertil Lintner, a writer and Burma specialist based in Thailand. The regime's leaders are known to consult astrologers to establish the most auspicious dates and times for key events, and number like this. Many analysts and activists believe this amnesty is intended to deflect criticism of Burma's human rights' record at the U.N. meeting and to show the international community that the military regime is cooperating with the U.N. Some of the political prisoners that have been freed were on the U.N.'s priority list submitted to the junta's leaders by the U.N. secretary general's special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, earlier this year, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also raised this issue with the top general Than Shwe during his failed mission to Burma in July, when the U.N. official was refused permission to meet detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. At the time, Ban was promised that a substantial number of political prisoners would be released before the elections in 2010. "Clearly, this is a gesture in response to Ban Ki-moon's request, made on behalf of the international community during his visit to Myanmar earlier this year," the Burma researcher for the Britain-based human rights group Amnesty International, Benjamin Zawacki, told IPS. "And as such it is disingenuous and insultingly insufficient." "These prisoner releases are simply too little, too late" he added. "Too little, because releasing around 120 political prisoners represents less than 5 percent of the more than 2,200 political prisoners who are still languishing in Myanmar's jails." "And too late, because at the current rate of release - every 6 to 12 months - it will be literally decades before the last of the political prisoners are released. By then, of course, the 2010 elections will have long since passed and many of the prisoners will have served their terms." Diplomats in Rangoon - Burma's former capital - believe more political prisoners will be released in the coming months, but that these will be freed in drips and drabs. The junta's seven-stage roadmap to democracy includes a mass amnesty for political prisoners. This was agreed more than five years ago between the former prime minister, General Khin Nyunt - now under house arrest - and the U.N. envoy at the time, Dato Razali Ismail, according to the former U.N. human rights rapporteur for Burma, Paulo Pinheiro. Few believe that the regime will honour this promise, though a few more political prisoners may see the light of day. "Technically, there is still time before the elections for this (recent) mass release to be only the first step - with many more to follow in quick succession - but all the signs and signals suggest this will not be the case," said Zawacki. "If the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council, as the military regime is officially called) was serious about making the elections free and fair, they would release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi," said Zin Linn, a spokesman for the National Coalition Government for the Union of Burma, the democratically elected Burmese government currently in exile in Thailand. "They may free other activists, but the key opposition leaders will certainly be kept behind bars until after the election." There is no doubt that the elections are dominating everything in Burma at the moment - even though the polling date is yet to be announced - according to diplomats and sources within the business community in Rangoon. The mass release of prisoners may also be in preparation for a possible crackdown on the opposition during the elections. "The junta cannot afford to allow the campaign to be free and fair," said Lintner. "They are emptying the jails now to fill them up later - that's what also happened in 1988, ahead of the mass pro-democracy protests, when thousands and thousands of activists were later locked up," he said. "The SPDC is still playing games - cracking down and easing pressure when it suits them, and then re-asserting their power when they need to," said Zin Linn. It is all part of the military rulers strategy to keep control and prevent social unrest, according to activists and human rights groups. "Even if a handful of political activists have been free, others are still being arrested," said Mathieson. "The message is clear: any threat to the 2010 elections will be dealt with harshly." Myanmar's monks under close watch - Joel Chong Bangkok - "I'm being watched all the time. I am considered an organizer. Between noon and 2 pm, I am allowed to go out of the monastery. But then I'm followed," Buddhist monk U Manita said, referring to stepped up government repression of the Buddhist clergy in Myanmar. "We don't want this junta. And that's what everyone at my monastery thinks as well." "Traditionally, we monks are not supposed to be politically active. The military has ruled our country for more than 40 years, and they don't care about the welfare of the people; they care only for themselves and their relatives, and how to remain in power forever. That was why the people rose up against them", said U Pannacara, a 27-year-old monk, referring to street protests in 2007. These are just two of the many monks' voices heard in "The Resistance of the Monks: Buddhism and Protests in Burma", a new report issued by the New York-based Human Rights Watch this week to coincide with the second anniversary of the monk-led "Saffron" revolution in Myanmar. Two years ago this month, crimson robes flooded the streets of Yangon and Mandalay as thousands of Buddhist monks marched defiantly against Myanmar's military junta. In certain instances, bystanders formed human shields to protect the venerated monks from security force attacks. The 2007 protests were sparked mainly by the ruling State Peace and Development Council's (SPDC) decision to remove fuel subsidies that sent prices of diesel and petrol, bus fares and other items soaring, adding to the already hard times from the previous year that saw prices of basic goods rise by 40%. After protests that started in August 2007 were violently suppressed by security forces in September, more than 1,000 monks had been arrested and detained, according to the HRW. Hundreds of them were tortured in government custody, writes the report. Myanmar's monks continue to be the subject of suspicion, restrictions and infiltration by a military wary of their organization, clout and moral authority in this mainly Buddhist country of 54 million people. A total of 237 monks remain imprisoned across Myanmar's 43 prisons and 50 labor camps, according to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), which assists political prisoners and their families in Myanmar. Many were arrested while protesting on the streets or during violent night-time raids on monasteries across the country. "It was quite a pivotal moment in modern [Myanmar] history when the monks started marching on the streets," David Mathieson, HRW's Myanmar consultant, said at the report's launch at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand. "Buddhist monks in [Myanmar] are not just one of the key institutions in the country. They are in some senses a barometer of social ideals. They take to the streets, they become public actors, when things get so bad that they can't stay silent." In a country where monks are widely revered and wield huge influence, the history of the Buddhist clergy, or Sangha, in Myanmar has been marked by revolutionary and radical movements that catalyzed various events of national importance, such as Myanmar's struggle for independence from the British and anti-military protests in the 1970s and 1980s. "They are probably the most powerful institution after the military in the country," Mathieson said. There are about 400,000 monks in 45,000 registered monasteries across Myanmar, according to HRW. Bertil Lintner, the author of the HRW report and a Myanmar expert, said that "exactly how many [monks] went home [after the September 2007 protests], we don't know". He added, "Many of the monks fled and they disrobed themselves to disguise the fact that they were monks on the run." Dressed in plain civilian clothes, a number were reported to have escaped either by fleeing east toward the Thai border or west toward India. While compiling the HRW report, Lintner, who has three decades of experience reporting on Myanmar, interviewed monks near the Thai border who had managed to escape from prison. One monk he interviewed escaped by riding a bus to the border. "At the checkpoint before the border he jumped out and pretended to be a busboy, tearing tickets and changing gears. The bus driver was fully aware of what was going on but he played along. They don't check the drivers' and the busboys' [identification] and he managed to get through, and he finally crossed the border and lived there." The junta has in recent days tightened its watch over the Buddhist clergy. Exiled Burmese media reported that on August 22, the Sangha League issued a statement saying it was working with 14 other political groups to plan a third boycott against the military, similar to the one launched during the 2007 uprising. Meanwhile, the junta is known to have planted monks in monasteries to gather information about their sentiments and plans. "They want to show that 'look, we are here and keeping an eye on you'," added Lintner. "The monasteries are heavily infiltrated by informants." Since the 2007 protests, government attempts to officially register monks have also intensified. "There's just more and more background checks on whether the monks have any affiliations or ties with political organizations," said Mathieson. "That is by its nature an intimidating process, basically warning monks not to get involved in any kind of political activities." Sermons of abbots and senior monks are also coming under more scrutiny, and monks returning to Myanmar from overseas are sometimes arrested and interrogated, he added. Monasteries have also been warned not to be so visible and many have been shut down in different parts of the country, according to Lintner. Only three of the 7,114 prisoners released as part of a mass amnesty last week were Buddhist monks, according to AAPP's Bo Kyi. Only 122 of those released were considered to be political prisoners, exiled Burmese organizations claimed. Monks released from detention often find their situations changed. "Some monks find it very difficult to return to their monastery as some of the monasteries are reluctant to accept those who have been released from prison," Bo Kyi told Inter Press Service. "They have to find out themselves where they can stay." Last week's amnesty announcement was notably made before Myanmar Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein's trip to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly meeting, which he is expected to address on September 28. While it's still unclear if Myanmar's monks intend to take new action against the military regime, analysts say that dissent continues to simmer below the surface as the government prepares for elections in 2010. "The monks can never be the leaders of a political-social movement, [but] they can be the catalyst … They showed that very clearly in September [2007] when they showed up at [detained pro-democracy leader] Aung San Suu Kyi's house and showed her 'we're here, but you are the leader'," said Lintner. "It doesn't matter what the military do to the monks. They are still monks in their hearts, and they will continue being that." Suu Kyi's party wants to talk about Myanmar poll Yangon, Myanmar - Senior members of Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party have asked the country's military government to allow them to meet with the detained Nobel Peace Prize laureate and her deputy to discuss next year's elections, a party spokesman said Tuesday. National League for Democracy spokesman Nyan Win said the party sent a letter to junta leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe last Wednesday asking for such permission. "We need to discuss future party policies and other broad political issues under present circumstances," Nyan Win said, adding that the 2010 elections would be on the agenda. The military government has planned the election as part of its seven-step "roadmap to democracy" in accordance with a constitution promulgated last year. Suu Kyi's party has decried the constitution as undemocratic and has not yet decided whether to take part in next year's polls, for which an exact date has not been set. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won a landslide victory in a 1989 election, but was not allowed to take power by the military. Suu Kyi and her deputy Tin Oo were both detained in 2003 after a pro-junta mob attacked them during a political tour of northern Myanmar. Suu Kyi, who has been in detention for about 14 of the past 20 years, had her term of house arrest extended by 18 months in May. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said last month that elections in Myanmar must be free and fair, amid mounting concerns among some governments and rights groups that they won't be credible. Ban said he was working hard to keep the pressure on Than Shwe and other Myanmar leaders to live up to their commitments to hold legitimate polls in 2010. At a minimum, the U.N. wants Suu Kyi and 2,000 other political prisoners released. Than Shwe has resisted U.N. demands for reconciliation with the country's pro-democracy movement, ignoring four Security Council statements and direct entreaties by Ban and his top envoy. Sangha leader calls for united opposition - Simon Roughneen Bangkok - Two years ago, the sight of thousands of saffron-clad monks marching in silence, hands clasped and heads bowed, briefly sparked hopes that some loosening of military control in Burma might be in sight. Would the junta dare harm the revered monks and pink-robed nuns who took to the streets to bolster protests that begun as a response to an arbitrary fuel price hike in August 2007? A student monk from Burma holds a photo of Aung San Suu Kyi and joins the protest held to commemorate the annual memorial day of the Saffron Revolution in front of the Burmese embassy in Colombo last year. (Photo: Reuters) Some observers thought, for the few short days between the start of the monk demonstrations and the army crackdown that the army would not dare touch the monks. However, the Saffron Revolution was crushed when the army moved in under the order of the ruling generals. In hindsight, given that monks in Mandalay were beaten up, imprisoned and shot in 1990, when they marked another two year anniversary - commemorating the 1988 student demonstrations when the army killed around 3000 Burmese - such optimism was unfounded. Speaking at a Bangkok press conference on Tuesday to launch the Human Rights Watch report "The Resistance of the Monks: Buddhism and Activism in Burma," author Bertil Linter said that "the crackdown in 2007 undermined whatever little legitimacy the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has in the eyes of most Burmese people." However, given that the army has a new constitution which mandates a civilian version of military rule and it is seeking to legitimize itself by holding elections in 2010, while not releasing the 2,100 political prisoners in the country's jails, it seems the junta will not be challenged in the foreseeable future. Venerable Sayadaw U Pannya Vamsa is spiritual director at the Burmese Buddhist temple in Penang, Malaysia. Speaking to The Irrawaddy last week, he said that the international community needs to understand that the situation in Burma is getting worse - "That has been the trajectory for the past 60 years, and that while we are grateful for the kind support they have shown, the people of Burma need to see action, and there needs to be direct dealing with the real problems faced by Burma's people." While the clergy does not have or seem to seek an overtly political role, its 400,000 members are a bellwether for Burma's political climate, and it has sought to open political space for others, by carefully chosen activism, such as in 2007. However, it seems unlikely that the monks and nuns will be able to take to the streets any time between now and the 2010 elections. More than 250 Buddhist clergy remain in prison, and unknown numbers of monks either sought refuge overseas or returned to their villages, discarding their robes. There seems to be scant prospect that a heavily infiltrated Sangha (another name for the Buddhist clergy), now under constant army surveillance, can mobilize again anytime soon. Monks in Burma have sought assistance from their counterparts in the Sangha in exile. One of the most outspoken and prominent is U Pannya Vamsa, who is also co-founder and chairperson of the International Burmese Monks Organization (IBMO), established in October 2007, as Burmese monks and nuns were being shot at, beaten, rounded-up and imprisoned. "Before 2007, I did not take a direct interest in politics," he said. "I left Burma five decades ago to do missionary work and that was my priority. However, the monks in Burma pleaded with me to use my voice and influence, as they could not in such a repressive system." While direct political involvement is not ordinarily sanctioned by Buddhist teaching, there are exceptions, as Stanford University's Paul Harrison outlined in a 2008 interview with the Council on Foreign Relations. He said that clergy are forced to use their influence to help the oppressed when there is no other option. That Buddhist clergy have become more active in recent decades is "a testimony to the situation in many Buddhist countries where previously things were not so bad in terms of political oppression." Things have been bad in Burma for a long time. The Burmese Sangha have been politically active a number of times, and their defiance of some sacrilegious British actions - such as Crown officials refusing to remove their shoes when entering places of worship - helped spark the resistance to colonial rule. The Sangha later protested following the 1962 military coup and participated in demonstrations against military rule in 1974, 1988 and 1990. Now, the Sangha is trying to take the fight to the global level, and U Pannya Vamsa told The Irrawaddy he is forming alliances with religious leaders of other faiths, at the highest level, to raise awareness about the situation in Burma. He was condemned in an unsigned letter published by the Ministry of Religion in Burma for his efforts, though significantly no junta figure would put his or her name to the document. Under the controversial 2008 constitution, approved in a rushed and in a flawed referendum held within days of the Cyclone Nargis disaster, monks do not have voting rights. This is something carried over from previous constitutions and electoral systems in the country and indicates that the military has sought to keep the clerics at a remove from politics, fearing their influence, which is based on what Linter described as "a symbiotic relationship with the Burmese people", 90 percent of whom are Buddhist and whose alms-giving helps to materially support the Sangha across the country. U Pannya Vamsa thinks that the military is trying to divide the Burmese people, to ensure that no effective opposition can challenge its grip on power. "The army will proceed with elections its own way, based on the premise that its sole ambition is to perpetuate military rule in Burma, in whatever form," he said. Some donor governments and other organizations have advocated some form of engagement with the junta, seeing the elections as an opening to bring about a more enlightened authoritarianism in Burma and in turn creating space for civil society or opposition groups to gain a political foothold. U Pannya Vamsa believes this to be a fallacy. "I spoke to the EU, who seemed happy that Burma was going to have elections," he said. "However, I explained that these are not going to be real elections. 'Election' is just a name, this is an army project, under army law." With the Sangha in Burma silenced, the ethnic ceasefire groups either divided among themselves or mulling a response to the junta's demand to join the state security services, and the political opposition scattered or in jail, there seems little prospect that the junta can be successfully challenged anytime soon. U Pannya Vamsa says that with more coherent international support, the Burmese opposition can revive and form a united front, "without ceding their autonomy or identity in the process." He thinks that this might set an example to members of the Burmese military, some of whom who are not happy with their leaders, or how the country is run. "Not all the military are bad," he said, "but they just follow orders, as they have no leadership to show them another path, and do not know what to do." End repression of Buddhist Monks; Intimidation intensifies ahead of second anniversary of crackdown Bangkok - Buddhist monks in Burma face continuing repression, intimidation and harsh prison sentences two years after the military government's brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrations, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. The 99-page report, "The Resistance of the Monks: Buddhism and Protest in Burma," written by longtime Burma watcher Bertil Lintner, describes the repression Burma's monks experienced after they led demonstrations against the government in September 2007. The report tells the stories of individual monks who were arrested, beaten and detained. Two years after Buddhist monks marched down the street of the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, hundreds of monks are in prison and thousands remain fearful of military repression. Many have left their monasteries and returned to their villages or sought refuge abroad, while those who remained in their monasteries live under constant surveillance. "The stories told by monks are sad and disturbing, but they exemplify the behavior of Burma's military government as it clings to power through violence, fear, and repression," said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "The monks retain a great deal of moral authority, making principled stands by monks very dangerous for a government that doesn't." The report says that since the 2007 events, thousands of monks have been disrobed (defrocked) and deterred from fulfilling their pivotal role as social mediators in Burmese society. The report also details the crucial social-service role played by monks following the devastation of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 - and the repression faced by many as a consequence. In a December 2007 report, Human Rights Watch documented 21 deaths as a result of security forces shooting and beating crowds of monks and civilians. Thousands of monks and their supporters were arrested. Approximately 240 monks are now serving harsh prison terms inside Burma, including 30-year-old U Gambira, who is serving a 63-year prison term for his role as one of the protest movement's leaders. In the report he is quoted saying: "We adhere to nonviolence, but our spine is made of steel. There is no turning back. It matters little if my life or the lives of colleagues should be sacrificed on this journey. Others will fill our sandals, and more will join and follow." U Gambira is now held at an isolated prison in western Burma near the Indian border, where he is reportedly in ill health. The military government has intensified its surveillance of monasteries, closed down health and social services programs run by local monastic groups in Rangoon and other parts of the country such as Pakokku and Magwe, and continued to disrobe Buddhist monks suspected of political activities. One of the monks Human Rights Watch interviewed in Mandalay said: "There are military intelligence agents outside, and they watch everyone who goes in and out of the gates. A man from the security services comes every morning and evening to check who of the monks are here, then he leaves." "That the military government would treat monks engaged in peaceful protests in such an appalling manner shows not only its brutality, but just how out of touch the generals are with the views and sensibilities of ordinary people," Adams said. "This is not surprising, as the government has no popular legitimacy and bases its policies on what will keep it in power, not what the public wants or needs." The report also traces the long history of activism in the Buddhist Sangha (the Buddhist monkhood). It documents how Buddhist monks have become involved in overt acts of political defiance during periods of great repression in Burma, from the time of British colonialism to anti-military protests following the military coup of 1962, and in major demonstrations against military rule in 1974, 1988, and 1990. The report also details how the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) routinely represses community welfare, health, and education initiatives by the monks, while at the same time attempting to utilize Buddhism as a tool to gain political legitimacy, often by building large pagodas and lavishing gifts on selected senior monks and monasteries. "While the casual observer may see the crimson robes and temple-building in Burma as a sign of religious freedom, the reality is that monks who engage in peaceful resistance have long been targeted by successive military governments," Adams said. "The Resistance of the Monks" complements the campaign launched by Human Rights Watch on September 16 for the release of political prisoners, including detained monks, ahead of elections planned in 2010. Human Rights Watch called on key actors in the international community, including China, India, the members of the Association of Southeast Asian States (ASEAN), the United States, the European Union, Australia, and the new government in Japan to make it clear that the planned elections will not be considered credible and legitimate if they are held with so many monks, Buddhist nuns, activists and opposition figures in prison. "Public anger remains high in Burma, and the potential for a repeat of the demonstrations in 2007 is very real unless the international community puts coordinated pressure on the regime to engage in a credible political reform process," Adams said. "It would not be surprising to see monks on the streets again if social grievances are not addressed." Selected accounts from the report "For us, it was not politics, but a question of religion. We just went out into the streets to recite metta sutta, loving kindness. We did not advocate violence to overthrow the government…We wanted the government to have a better policy for the people. So we decided to boycott the junta with our bowls turned upside-down. That's called patta nikkujjana kamma. We did not accept food, medicines or anything from the authorities. That's the only way we can fight for our rights. This has nothing to do with politics." "The regime's use of mass arrests, murder, torture, and imprisonment has failed to extinguish our desire for the freedom that was stolen from us. We have taken their best punch. Now it is the generals who must fear the consequences of their actions. We adhere to nonviolence, but our spine is made of steel. There is no turning back. It matters little if my life or the lives of colleagues should be sacrificed on this journey. Others will fill our sandals, and more will join and follow." "I'm being watched all the time. I am considered an organizer. Between noon and 2 p.m., I am allowed to go out of the monastery. But then I'm followed. I had to shake off my tail to come to this meeting today. I'm not afraid, not for myself. I'm not afraid to tell foreign journalists what happened. And I'm prepared to march again when the opportunity arises. We don't want this junta. And that's what everyone at my monastery thinks as well." "[S]omething was achieved [in September 2007]. A whole new generation of monks has been politicized. We're educating them. We're still boycotting the military. We are not accepting gifts and offerings from them. One of the reasons why the regime will fall is globalization. No country can be isolated like before. Look at Indonesia, that regime fell. Now it's a democracy. We want the UN's Security Council to take up the Burma issue, that the UN investigates what really happened. … But China and Russia can use their veto. Please tell the world what's happening in our country!" Upon release, it will be available at: http://www.hrw.org/en/node/85648 Prisoner releases "cynical ploy to ease international pressure" [Mae Sot, Thailand] The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma) (AAPP) today confirmed that 127 political prisoners have been released from prisons in Burma. Last Thursday evening in Rangoon, state-run MRTV carried a news bulletin announcing that 7,114 prisoners were to be released "on humanitarian grounds." 43 members of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party were released, including three MPs. However, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, her personal assistant U Win Htein and NLD Vice-Chairman U Tin Oo all remain in detention. No leading opposition figures were released in the amnesty. AAPP Secretary Tate Naing said, "Important political figures like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Shan National League for Democracy leader U Khun Tun Oo, 88 Generation Students leader Min Ko Naing and other prominent activists are still in prison, because the regime perceives them as a threat to its absolute power." 22 women, four monks, and four journalists were released. The journalists included Eint Khaing Oo and Kyaw Kyaw Thant, arrested for their efforts to help a group of Cyclone Nargis survivors. Also released were U Peter and Daw Nu Nu Swe, arrested and sentenced to six years imprisonment after they refused to open the door to security forces who were searching for their son, Sithu Maung. A leader of the All Burma Federation of Student Unions, 22 year-old Sithu Maung was arrested at a different location and is currently serving a jail term of 11 years and 6 months in the remote Buthidaung prison for his role in protests in August and September 2007. "We are happy for those political prisoners released, and for their loved ones. But from a political perspective, this is just a cynical ploy designed to ease international pressure. There can be no real progress towards democracy in our country until all political prisoners are released," Tate Naing continued. According to AAPP, more than 2,000 political prisoners remain in jail, including at least 124 activists who are in poor health. Since November 2004 there have been a total of six amnesties for prisoners. According to the ruling State Peace and Development Council's own figures, 45,732 prisoners were released under those amnesties. According to AAPP, only 1.3% of them were political prisoners. The latest amnesty was expected. In mid-July the Burmese permanent representative to the U.N., U Than Swe, said the regime was 'processing to grant amnesty to prisoners on humanitarian grounds'. U Than Swe's comments came in response to a briefing given by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on his visit to the country earlier in July. The amnesty also comes shortly before the opening of this year's UN General Assembly session to be attended by General Thein Sein, the junta-appointed Prime Minister. Suu Kyi has low blood pressure Yangon - the doctor of detained Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi says she is suffering from low blood pressure, after examining her for the first time since she was returned to house arrest last month. Suu Kyi's lawyer and party spokesman Nyan Win said Dr. Tin Myo Win and his assistant were allowed to visit her house Sunday. 'The doctor said Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's health is generally good but she's suffering from low blood pressure,' said Nyan Win. 'Daw' is a term of respect used for older women. Nyan Win said the doctor assumed that her low blood pressure was due to an inadequate diet. A Myanmar court on Aug. 11 found Suu Kyi, 64, guilty of violating the terms of her previous period of house arrest by sheltering an uninvited American visitor. Her sentence of three years in prison with hard labor was reduced to 18 months of new house arrest by military junta leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been detained for about 14 of the past 20 years for her nonviolent political activities, but this year was the first time she faced criminal charges. She suffered from dehydration and low blood pressure as well as muscle cramps in May after her arrest. Sunday's visit was the first time that Suu Kyi's personal physician has been allowed to see her since she was sent back to her lakeside home after her conviction. Tin Myo Win is one of the very few people allowed access to Suu Kyi under the rigid terms of her confinement. He was detained for questioning by authorities in May after the American man was arrested for sneaking into her closely guarded home. Asked if Tin Myo Win will now be allowed to give Suu Kyi medical checkups on a regular basis, Nyan Win said he hoped so, 'but it's not clear yet when and how often the doctor can visit her.' - AP Myanmar dissidents urge junta to end violence against minorities Bangkok - Myanmar dissident groups Monday called on the ruling junta to stop using violence against ethnic minorities, warning that its current policy will lead to more human rights violations and refugees. The regime recently stepped up its decades-long campaign against minority groups, with offensives against ethnic Chinese rebels in the northeast in August and Christian Karen insurgents near the Thai border in June. Analysts say the junta wants to crush such groups before elections scheduled for 2010 in the country formerly known as Burma, which has been under military rule since 1962. "We oppose the military regime's use of violence against ethnic nationalities," said a joint statement by the All Burma Monks' Alliance, the All Burma Federation of Student Unions and the 88 Generation Students. The statement, released via the Washington-based US Campaign for Burma, also accused the regime of using the "showcase" elections to forcibly enact a controversial new constitution that was pushed through by a referendum in 2008. The statement said the constitution "fails to guarantee the fundamental rights of ethnic nationalities and equality among all". Last month's fighting with the ethnic Chinese Kokang rebels showed the junta had "unilaterally abolished" its ceasefire agreement with ethnic groups, which had lasted more than 20 years, the statement said. "The regime's current policy towards the ceasefire groups will lead to more human rights violations and more refugees," the statement said. Critics say the constitution entrenches and legitimises the military's grip on power, giving it an automatic role in any future administration. The groups also urged the UN Security Council to "effectively intervene in Burma to stop the violence and unilateral acts pursued by the Burmese military regime, and to realise peaceful negotiation among all parties concerned." They also called on the regime to start dialogue with ethnic representatives and the National League for Democracy (NLD) opposition party, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, who had her house arrest extended by 18 months in August. Burmese junta aims to win hearts and minds - Amy Kazmin Auk Chang, Burma - Shortly before rice planting began this season, about 120 men, women and youngsters in the village of Auk Chang were recruited by Burma's Union Solidarity and Development Association to build a two-storey replacement for a dilapidated school. For their month of gruelling physical labour under the blazing sun, the villagers received breakfast, coffee and tea each day, but no money. "This is the off season. They have nothing to do so they are volunteering," declared a local USDA official. "Their children will use the school." Nearby, villagers dug trenches for the school's foundation, surrounded by fluttering red banners crediting the USDA for donating the steel frame and bricks for the new building. It was a classic exercise of political campaigning, -junta-style. With Burma's military regime due to hold parliamentary elections next year, the generals have been working frenetically to ensure the polls deliver a legislature sympathetic to their interests. They are desperate to avoid a repeat of 1990, when the opposition National League for Democracy shocked them with its landslide victory. Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate leader of the NLD, which was never permitted to take power, is likely to miss the legislative campaign after being sentenced in August to 18 months' house arrest for allowing an American intruder to shelter in her bungalow. Many other political dissidents are in prison, under sentences as long as 65 years , for their roles in mass protests in 2007 after a sharp rise in fuel prices. But keeping prominent critics confined will not be sufficient for the regime's strategic aims. The generals must also ensure the elections offer voters the semblance of choice from an array of diverse candidates so they can claim legitimacy for the polls to their own population and the international community. "They will tell [UN secretary-general] Ban Ki-moon, or other Asian allies, 'We have an inclusive electoral process,' " says Maung Zarni, research fellow on Burma at the London School of Economics. To that end, the generals are recruiting prominent local businessmen, ethnic leaders, civil servants and respected community figures with no record of active opposition to the regime to run as candidates. "They want credible people they can control," says one local businessman. With a quarter of the seats in the new parliament reserved for military appointees and with the assumption the army will find plenty of pliable candidates, the generals are not adverse to playing wild cards either: analysts say the junta has even approached some former and current political prisoners as potential candidates to lend credibility to the contest. Yet the real key to the generals' strategy is the USDA. Formed in 1993, the USDA is run by the regime's top generals, who portray it as a genuine popular social movement, with 24m members and 15,000 offices, penetrating even remote rural villages. But most Burmese view the association as little more than the long arm of the regime. When campaigning starts, many of the USDA's top and mid-ranking leaders are expected to enter the field. So the organisation has launched a big effort to build schools, health clinics and other facilities in rural areas, hoping displays of largesse translate into popularity for those it backs. "They want something in the form of the popular vote, and they are bribing people by going to different communities with cash and promising to repair schools and hospitals," says Mr Zarni. "They are doing this using people's money - state allocated cash." Despite the generals' machinations, a western diplomat says the military-controlled process could evolve in unexpected directions and that handpicked candidates could turn out to be not as docile as expected. "It is going to shake the glass up a bit," says the diplomat. "It will create new structures which are toothless at the beginning, but may gain teeth over time." While Burmese have few illusions about the so-called "disciplined democracy" their rulers are offering, some still hope for improved, more rational governance, after five decades of erratic military rule. Social organisation used to mobilise the masses Burma's military regime created the Union Solidarity and Development Association in 1993 to mobilise the population behind it after the shock defeat of the pro-military National Unity Party three years earlier, writes Amy Kazmin in Auk Chang, Burma . Registered as a social organisation, the ostensibly apolitical USDA claims more than 24m members, including civil servants, business people, students and factory workers, though many are believed to join out of compulsion to keep jobs, remain in business, or retain other privileges such as university enrolment. With Senior General Than Shwe, the junta chief, as its primary patron, the USDA is thought to have extensive business interests, while also receiving direct state support to carry out its mission. The junta has sought to raise the USDA's profile as a social welfare group, letting it play a highly visible role in the relief effort after Cyclone Nargis last year, and trying to partner it with foreign non-governmental organisations operating in the country. The group has its headquarters in a huge, new Rangoon building and has 15,000 branches nationwide, USDA-mobilised thugs have been blamed for violent attacks on dissidents, incidents the regime has dismissed as spontaneous outbursts of popular anger. The USDA is also used to mobilise the public for mass rallies supporting regime programmes, denouncing critics and last year's constitutional referendum, which controversially went ahead within days of the devastating cyclone. All Burma Monks' Alliance, The 88 Generation Students, All Burma Federation of Student Unions: Statement: No: 5/2009 We Oppose the Military Regime's Use of Violence against Ethnic Nationalities, and Demand That the Regime Stops Forcibly Enacting of the 2008 Constitution, Which Is Not accepted by the People of Burma - - through the 2010 Election (1) The battles that occurred in Kokang Region of Shan State in late August clearly highlighted the insincere attitude of the regime over the ceasefire agreement between it and ethnic revolutionary groups, which lasted over 20 years. Furthermore, by attacking and defeating Kokang troops and occupying the Kokang Region, the regime has threatened other ceasefire groups to choose one of the two options, "subordinate to the regime, or being defeated". (2) Building peace requires mutual respect and trust, as well as basic sincerity, understanding, discussion and compromise with patience among the parties concerned. All parties concerned must take responsibility to keep the existing peace. The eruption of violence in the Kokang Region abundantly demonstrated that the Burmese military regime has unilaterally abolished the ceasefire agreements, and that it has willingness to use force in solving political problems and ethnic national affairs, instead of working through a peaceful dialogue. (3) The regime has been pressuring all ethnic ceasefire groups to abandon their troops and prepare to participate in the 2010 election. However, most of the ceasefire groups have refused to abandon their armed forces and are reluctant to participate in the election. (4) The ethnic ceasefire groups refuse to abandon their troops and join in the election because the regime's 2008 Constitution fails to grantee the fundamental rights of ethnic nationalities and equality among all. Therefore, the National League for Democracy, United Nationalities Alliance, and ethnic revolutionary forces have demanded that the regime reviews and revises the Constitution to really grant the fundamental rights of ethnic nationalities, equality among all, democracy and human rights. (5) While the whole people of Burma have refused to accept the 2008 Constitution, written unilaterally by the regime and approved by force, the regime uses violence, threats, bullying tactic and arbitrary arrest to put the Constitution into effect through its 2010 elections. We demand that the regime stops these abuses immediately. (6) We also demand that the regime releases all political prisoners immediately and unconditionally, announces a nationwide ceasefire and stops preparation for war. We also call on the regime to start a meaningful and time-bound dialogue with the National League for Democracy, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and ethnic representatives. This is the best way to solve Burma's problems, including politic, economic, social and ethnic nationality affairs, peacefully. (7) The use of violence by the regime destroyed the peace and broke stability and security in the region. The continued pressure and attacks by the regime against ethnic ceasefire groups will increase the loss of lives, lands, and personal belongings of ethnic nationals, and create more instability and insecurity in the region. The regime's current policy towards the ceasefire groups will lead to more human rights violations and more refugees. (8) Hence, we will continue to work together with all the people of Burma for emergence of democracy and human rights, as well as equality among all ethnic nationalities, and self determination. At the same time, we seriously appeal to the international Community, including countries in he region, and especially the United Nations Security Council, to effectively intervene in our country in time to stop the violence and unilateral acts pursued by the Burmese military regime, and to realize peaceful negotiation among all parties concerned. All Burma Monks' Alliance Court to give decision on Suu Kyi appeal on Oct 2 -Salai Han Thar San New Delhi - The Rangoon divisional court on Friday heard arguments on an appeal against the verdict of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and scheduled October 2 for announcing its decision. At the request of lawyers of Aung San Suu Kyi, who was sentenced by a district court in August 11, the division court on Friday heard arguments for review of the district court's verdict. Nyan Win, a member of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's legal team, said, "Arguments by lawyers on both sides was heard today and the court scheduled October 2, 10 a.m. for announcing its decision." He said, the defence submitted an 11-point argument for the appeal with the main focus stating that the 1974 constitution is no longer in force. "Aung San Suu Kyi is being detained under articles taken from this constitution. And if this constitution is no more in force, she cannot be detained and naturally there can be no case against her," Nyan Win added. He expressed his expectation that the Burmese pro-democracy leader would be freed as per the existing law and hoped that the judge on October 2 would make a positive announcement. The Burmese Nobel Peace Laureate was sentenced to three years with hard labour by a district court in Insein prison on August 11, but an executive order by the junta supremo Snr Gen Than Shwe halved the sentence and allowed her to serve time at her home. She was sentenced on charges of violating her previous house arrest terms by allowing an American, John Yettaw, who swam across a lake and entered her house in early May to stay a few days. Following the verdict, the Burmese democracy icon's lawyers submitted an appeal on her behalf on September 4 to the divisional court, which accepted the case and scheduled the hearing to be held on September 18. Earlier, Aung San Suu Kyi had made a written request to the Rangoon Special Branch Police to allow her to attend the hearing on September 18 but she was denied permission. The court hearing on Friday coincides with the junta's release of prisoners as part of an amnesty to over 7,114 prisoners across the country. Sources in the opposition said, there were a few political prisoners among those freed on Friday. Opposition sources and analysts in Rangoon said only up to 250 political prisoners will be included among the 7,114 prisoners to be released. On Friday, Eint Khine Oo, reporter of the Rangoon-based Ecovision Journal, Naing Naing, a Member of Parliament elected in 1990 elections, and a about dozen other political prisoners were included among the more than 500 prisoners released from Insein prison. Zaw Win, director of the Directorate of Prison, after a press conference, told reporters that Burma has no political prisoners. Myanmar Doubles Political Arrests; Elections a Sham, Group Says - Ed Johnson Myanmar's military regime has doubled the number of political prisoners in the past two years and elections next year will have no credibility unless they are freed, Human Rights Watch said in a report. Buddhist monks, journalists and artists are among more than 2,200 people held at more than 40 prisons or forced to perform hard labor at about 50 camps in the country formerly known as Burma, the New York-based group said. The elections "will be a sham" if political opponents remain in jail, Tom Malinowski, the group's advocacy director in Washington, said yesterday. The U.S., China, India and Southeast Asian countries "should make the release of all political prisoners a central goal of their engagement with Burma." The junta, the latest in a line of generals to rule Myanmar since 1962, triggered international condemnation last month when it extended opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest order for 18 months. The Nobel Peace Prize winner has spent more than 13 years in custody since her National League for Democracy won elections in 1990, a result rejected by the regime. Repression increased in the country after an uprising led by Buddhist monks two years ago was crushed by the government, Human Rights Watch said. More than 300 political and labor activists, monks, artists, comedians, journalists and Internet bloggers have been sentenced to jail after trials in closed courts, the group said. Some prison terms have been for more than 100 years. More than 20 activists, including the country's most-famous comedian, Zargana, were arrested for speaking out about obstacles to humanitarian relief following Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in May 2008 leaving at least 138,000 people dead or missing, according to the report. Junta defends court ban Yangon- MYANMAR'S state media on Thursday defended the ruling junta's decision to bar opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi from court during final arguments in her appeal against her detention. The Nobel laureate was convicted on August 11 of breaching security laws after an American swam to her house. She was sentenced to three years' hard labour but junta chief Than Shwe cut the term to 18 months' house arrest. Her lawyers say the regime has denied her permission to attend court on Friday to hear closing submissions in her appeal, but government mouthpiece newspapers said the decision was in line with the law. 'According to the practices of the courts, any defendants are not sent to the tribunal,' a commentary in the English-language New Light of Myanmar daily said. 'If the defendant is a prisoner, there is no need to summon him to the court for his statements,' said the editorial, which also appeared in state-run Burmese language newspapers. 'Courts hear criminal cases in accordance with the existing laws…. Therefore, it is fair to say that Myanmar's judicial practice meets the judicial principles,' it said. The article did not mention Suu Kyi's name nor her party but it was published one day after Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy said the decision to bar her from the appeal court was 'not justice'. The 64-year-old appealed against the verdict earlier this month. The guilty verdict sparked international outrage and the imposition of further sanctions against Myanmar's powerful generals, who have already kept the frail Suu Kyi locked up for 14 of the past 20 years. Her extended house arrest keeps her off the scene for elections promised by the regime some time in 2010, adding to widespread criticism that the polls are a sham designed to legitimise the junta's grip on power. The NLD won a landslide victory in the country's last elections in 1990 but was never allowed to take power by the military, which has ruled the country since 1962. - AFP Junta Announces Selection of Proxy Candidates The Burmese government has selected more than 300 proxy candidates to run in the general election in 2010. Three hundred candidates were selected from military personnel who are now attending the National Defense University in Naypyidaw. According to the sources in Rangoon and Naypyidaw, the candidates will run under the banner of the National Politics Party, a proxy party for the military, which has yet to be formed. The candidates will undergo a three-month training process prior to the election, sources said. Included among the government-selected candidates will also be members of the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) and the Myanmar Maternal and Child Welfare Association (MMCWA). While some members participate with the new political party, the two organizations will retain their current status as "social welfare groups," according to the sources. Sources also said the government will also provide campaign funds and offer its own candidates to other political parties that will take part in 2010 election. According to the 2008 constitution, the military is guaranteed control of 25 percent of both the Upper House and Lower House seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the formation of a new political party, the Democratic Party, was announced on Monday in Rangoon. The party will be headed by the daughter of late Prime Minister U Nu, along with two daughters of former high-ranking political leaders. The main Burmese opposition party, the National League for Democracy, has said it will not participate in the election unless the government meets certain conditions. It says the election is a sham designed to perpetuate military rule under the guise of democracy. Pinning hope on Burma's hopeless Constitution - Awzar Thi Hong Kong, China - Last year, amid the death and debris in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, Burma got a new Constitution. Now people inside and outside the country are readying themselves for a general election of some sort, followed by the opening of a new Parliament, which is when the charter will take effect. The ballot is expected in 2010, although so far no details have emerged of how it will be run. The regime could yet give any number of excuses to postpone it if Senior General Than Shwe or his astrologers decide the time is not right. Some analysts - including former diplomats and others who move in their circles - see hope for change in the 2008 Constitution and the anticipated elections. Their argument is that even though the parliamentary system will be under military control, it will still provide space for people that have not had a chance to participate in government for the last few decades. One way or another, they say, power will be more diffused and that will create opportunities. And like it or not, they figure, the junta's electoral circus is the only one in town. But, in a statement to the U.N. Human Rights Council this month, the Asian Legal Resource Center has given a starkly different opinion. The Hong Kong-based group has argued that in its current form the 2008 charter cannot be called a constitution at all, let alone one that will permit people in Burma to shape their future. The center makes its point by highlighting five aspects of the Constitution. First, the document commits to separating the branches of government "to the extent possible." The group observes that this is not a qualified guarantee of judicial independence, as some persons have misunderstood it, but exactly the opposite. It is a promise of non-independence. It is the inverting of a norm into a statement of fact: that Burma's courts are not and will not operate other than as appendages of the executive. Second, the army, not the judiciary, is assigned primary responsibility for defense of the Constitution. Just how it is supposed to do this is not explained anywhere. Its relationship with a new constitutional tribunal, which has the role of interpreting the charter, also is not explained. Third, the center notes that the armed forces, not the judiciary, are also assigned responsibility for upholding the rule of law in the country. Proponents of the Constitution appear to have overlooked or ignored the absurdity of this clause and what it implies. Fourth, the Constitution sets up an executive president with power over the appointment and dismissal of senior judges, rather than an independent judicial body for that purpose, again with obvious consequences. Fifth, not only are the statements of rights in the charter farcical and at every point qualified, but they also undermine rights established in the ordinary criminal law. For instance, the right to come before a judge within 24 hours of arrest is in the new Constitution perverted through a clause that this right does not apply in matters "on precautionary measures taken for the security of the Union or prevalence of law and order, peace and tranquility in accord with the law in the interest of the public." This type of ridiculous caveat again completely negates the supposed right to which it is attached. The center concludes that the so-called 2008 Constitution fails as a supreme law because it neither provides the normative grounds for a coherent legal system nor protects the rights of citizens, let alone outlining the means to ensure that the charter's terms are effected. Sri Lankan lawyer Basil Fernando has written that the passing in 1978 of a new Constitution in his country moved the state completely outside the orbit of constitutionalism and into a legal black hole in which anything became possible, and in which the conflicts that gripped the island for the last decades thrived. Burma has been in its own black hole for even longer, most of the time without a constitution at all. In searching for a way out, some commentators have misled themselves into thinking that the mere existence of one will pull the country back into a constitutional orbit of some sort, no matter how distant. This is a mistake. Whereas the charter's authors have allotted legislative seats to the army in mimicry of Soeharto's Indonesia, perhaps they copied its executive presidency from Sri Lanka, where since 1978 the dictatorial powers conferred upon the president have worked very well to destroy parliamentary democracy and undermine the courts. In Burma democracy was destroyed and the courts defeated long ago, and so the Constitution's concern is not with how to achieve what has already been done but with how to set in place arrangements to keep things as they are while giving some appearance to the contrary. This will require a certain amount of juggling and the making of some compromises. But there is little point in nursing naive hopes that within the Constitution's frame for the new government there will be some genuine opportunities for change. People with hope for Burma's future should go pin it elsewhere. (The full text of the ALRC statement is available online at: http://www.alrc.net/doc/mainfile.php/alrc_st2009/575 ) |
16 September 2009
[ReadingRoom] News on Burma - 16/09/09
Youth Forcibly Conscripted in Arakan Sittwe - The Burmese army stationed in Arakan State has been forcibly recruiting youth from villages to serve in the army, said a retired teacher. "The system for forced recruitment of soldiers has been missing for a long time, but now it has appeared again. The army authority ordered village councils to recruit five youth from each village to serve in the army," he said. The Burmese army has conscripted youth from Arakanese villages in the past by pressuring village councils, but the system had not been used for nearly a decade after people protested. "The army authority has failed to recruit voluntary soldiers in Arakan because many Arakanese youth have refused to join the army. The army authority has resumed the old tactic for drafting soldiers in Arakan," he said. Many local army battalions stationed in Buthidaung, Rathidaung, Sittwe, Pauktaw, Kyauktaw, Paletwa, Mrauk U, Min Bya, and Kyauk Pru in Arakan State have ordered their respective villages to recruit five youth to send to army headquarters. In the past, many villages in Arakan had to spend a lot of money in order to recruit youth to serve in the army. Every village had to send two youths to army headquarters as the army authority collected soldiers from the villages on a quota system. "We had to send two youths to army headquarters each year in the past. We looked for youths who were jobless, and who wanted to join the army after we paid him. We had to pay at least 200,000 kyat to a youth to get their agreement to join the army. People suffered from the system. So people opposed it and later the system disappeared," he said. According to a local source, some USDA members and village councils in rural areas of Arakan are now organizing youth to join with the Burmese army by enticing them with money and food rations. In Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State, army authorities have also been arresting young men and rickshaw pullers during the night and forcing them to enlist in the army. A monk from Sittwe said, "Many youths and rickshaw pullers have avoided going outside their homes after 10 pm due to fear of arrest by the Burmese army authorities. Many poor youths in Sittwe have been sent to the army recruitment unit located at LIB 20 based in the city after being arrested by army authorities." Some parents in Sittwe are suffering from losing their children after they walked on the streets of Sittwe at night. The family members know the army authority arrested them to serve in the army, but they have not had the chance to bring their children home from the army recruitment unit. Another source said many tribal youths, including Khami, Mro, and Rakhine in Paletwa Township have also been conscripted into the Burmese army. The rates of disasters and loss of soldiers has been increasing alarmingly in the Burmese army, causing the army to conscript young men from anywhere they can in Arakan. Monks under the Eye of the Junta - Wai Moe On the two-year anniversary of the monk-led September mass demonstrations, the military junta keeps a close eye on the estimated 400,000 Buddhist monks in Burma with continued surveillance and propaganda in the media. Security forces are present at the annual examinations for monks from Sept. 14 to 30 at Sangha [Monk] University in Rangoon. About 60 soldiers are stationed in the university compound, according to monks taking examinations. Meanwhile, in recent months publications in Rangoon and other cities have printed stories warning people of the dangers of a division between Theravada Buddhists and Mahayana Buddhists. Most Burmese are Theravada Buddhist. The papers accused well-known Buddhist writers such as Parugu, Aye Maung, Chit Nge, Ashin Thoma Buddhi and Kyaw Hein, a veteran actor turned monk, as fostering confusion among Buddhists. A main target of the stories is a former political prisoner, Ashin Nyana, a monk who exposes an alternative view of Buddhism that differs from traditional Theravada Buddhism. Since the 1980s, Ashin Nyana has advocated what he calls Paccuppanna [the present] Karma Buddhism. Unlike most monks in Burma who wear saffron robes, he wears sky blue robes. He was charged with discrediting Buddhism in 1983 and served three years in prison. He was arrested again in 1991and received a 10-year prison sentence. He was released in 1998 in an amnesty. "People are saying now that these papers were published by the Military Affairs Security [military intelligence] or the government-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association to create dissension among monks," said a journalist in Rangoon. In fact, Buddhism actually promotes critical thinking. The Kalama Sutta said: "Do not accept anything by mere tradition…Do not accept anything just because it accords with your scriptures…Do not accept anything merely because it agrees with your pre-conceived notions…But when you know for yourselves - these things are moral, these things are blameless, these things are praised by the wise, these things, when performed and undertaken, conduce to well-being and happiness - then do you live acting accordingly." * Correspondent Ba Saw Tin contributed reporting from Bangkok. Suu Kyi denied permission to attend appeal hearing - Myint Maung New Delhi - Aung San Suu Kyi's request to the Rangoon Division of the Special Branch of Police to allow her to be present in court, which will hear her appeal against the lower court's verdict, has been rejected. The Rangoon Divisional court will hear arguments by her lawyers on September 18 on her appeal. She sent a letter of request to the Special Branch (SB) of Police on September 11 to allow her to be present in court on that day but it was rejected by SB through her lawyers the next day. "Daw Suu applied on September 11, but the SB called us to their office on September 12 and told us about rejecting her request saying that the matter concerned only the court," her lawyer Nyan Win told Mizzima. Regarding the nature of the court hearing, Nyan Win said, if the accused wanted to be present in the court during the hearing of appeal and the court had no objections, the accused can be allowed into the court. "But If this person is in prison, the prison authorities must accompany the person to the court. In this case, Daw Suu is being detained by the SB. So the SB must take her to the court. So we applied to the SB," he added. As per the 8-point restriction in her detention clause at her home on University Avenue in Rangoon, she can send request letters for whatever she wants. So she sent a letter to the Rangoon Divisional SB to let her be present at the court hearing. After an American John William Yettaw entered her house in early May this year, the military regime tried her and sentenced her and her two live-in party colleagues to three years in prison with hard labour on September 11. But an executive order by the junta Supremo Senior Gen. Than Shwe reduced her sentence by half and allowed her to serve time at her home. Aung San Suu Kyi's lawyers defended her in the district court on the ground that the 1974 Constitution under which the case was filed, is no longer in force. In paragraph 3 of the Preamble of the 2008 Constitution, it says 'the 1974 Constitution came to an end because of the general situation occurred in 1988'. Moreover Senior Gen. Than Shwe signed an ordinance on 29 May 2008 which says the 1974 Constitution has come to an end and is null and void. The Burmese pro-democracy leader's lawyers filed an appeal case against the lower court's verdict in the Rangoon Divisional Court on September 4. The divisional court agreed to hear the argument by her lawyers and fixed the hearing date on September 18 at 10 a.m. Ceasefire groups ponder whose side Beijing is on "We used to think whatever happened, China's our friend," said a middle-aged officer from one of the ceasefire groups located on the Sino-Burma frontier. "After Kokang, I'm not sure." Kachin, Kokang, Wa and Mongla have always believed that they, together with Shans, would be collectively treated as a buffer, as North Korea is, to successive Burmese governments' efforts to establish détente with the west especially the United States. That was until Kokang, the ethnic Chinese dominant territory of Burma, was not only invaded but resoundly beaten last month by the Burma Army that prompted only a few complaints from Beijing. Many of those questioned by SHAN admitted they "can't help but feel that we have been let down by the provincial government, if not the central government." The following, they say, are the reasons for their suspicions:
"This is the last straw," said an officer. "Now only the Burma Army can buy as much as it wants without fear of its assets being freezed." On the other hand, there have been an increase in the frequency of drug seizures along the Thai-Burma border recently. Interviewed by the Irrawaddy on the latest haul of almost 3 million meth pills on 11 September, the Burmese police in Tachilek said the drugs originated in Panghsang. "That's the damnedest thing I've heard in 20 years," a veteran Thai security officer in Maesai, opposite Tachilek. "In the past, the Burmese officials always immediately came to the Wa's defense, whenever we leveled our accusations at them." These days, according to a businessman in Kengtung, 160 km north of Maesai, the only way to survive and get ahead as a drug entrepreneur is to be "politically correct," that is, to support the military junta. "From now on, the Wa are not going to be allowed to sell drugs and buy weapons to be used against Naypyitaw." The New Light of Myanmar, on Sunday, 13 September, had warned all the ceasefire armies to be ready to transform themselves into Burma Army-controlled border guard forces (BGFs). Kokang was attacked and its 1,500 strong force routed after it turned down the BGF proposition. UN: Millions Denied Human Rights Because of Discrimination - Lisa Schlein Geneva - The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, says millions of people around the world are denied their human rights because of, what she calls, the "scourge of discrimination". Pillay told the 47-member U.N. Human Rights Council, that women and ethnic minorities are among those who are most victimized by human-rights abuses. U.N. Commissioner Navi Pillay says human-rights abuses are increasing in many parts of the world. She says women's human rights continue to be denied or curtailed in too many countries. She notes there have been recent positive developments in some Persian Gulf states. Yet, Pillay says, the overall situation of women in the region falls well short of international standards. She notes that indigenous people and ethnic minorities, such as Tibetans or the Roma in Hungary suffer from discrimination and often are subjected to abuse. She adds that all too often, discrimination and harmful prejudice sow the seeds of war. Pillay says civilians continue to be targets of attacks motivated by ethnic or religious hatred in conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Palestinian territory. "In some of these conflicts, ethnic minorities and indigenous peoples bear the brunt of hostilities. In virtually all of them, women and children suffer disproportionately. Let me reiterate that sexual violence is almost invariably a foreseeable consequence in situations of armed conflict and in a climate that fosters mass atrocities," she said. Pillay describes what she calls another alarming global trend - attacks against peaceful opponents and critics of people in power. She says human rights advocates face arrest, abduction, torture and even death. "We should all be dismayed by the recent sentencing of political opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to a further period of house arrest by the Myanmar [Burma] authorities. Her unfair and arbitrary detention, along with that of more than 2,000 other political prisoners, makes a mockery of Myanmar's commitment to democratic transition. And I call for their immediate and unconditional release," she said. Pillay says governments have to do more to protect human rights defenders. She notes that the issues of political participation, and free and fair elections have a direct impact on the realization of human rights. She urges the U.N. Human Rights Council to be vigilant, and to scrutinize and condemn abuses wherever they are found. Female Dissident Put in Solitary Confinement: AAPP An imprisoned female activist of the 88 Generation Students group faces additional anguish after being put in solitary confinement in a remote prison, a human rights group said on Monday. Thailand-based Burmese human rights group the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) said that prison authorities incarcerated Nobel Aye (aka Hnin May Aung), 28, in a solitary confinement cell in Monywa Prison in Sagaing Division recently. The AAPP did not specify the reasons for the solitary confinement punishment in its press release on Monday. However, Tate Naing, the secretary of the group, told The Irrawaddy by telephone that political prisoners in Burma have often faced additional punishments or solitary confinement if they complain about human rights violations or prison condition. Nobel Aye has been arrested twice. The first time was in 1998 when she faced a 42-year jail sentence for non-violent political activities. She was released under an amnesty in July 2005 following Gen Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence apparatus' downfall. She was arrested again in August 23, 2007, after the 88 Generation Students group led a protest against a hike in fuel prices that sparked monk-led national demonstrations. In November 2008, she was sentenced to 11 years imprisonment and transferred to Monywa Prison in February 2009. "Since she is not well, we are very concerned about her life in prison," said Tate Naing. According to the AAPP, Nobel Aye is one of 191 female political prisoners in Burma. The Burmese regime currently keeps 2,211 political dissidents under arrest. Conflict Children in Forced Labor - Khin May Zaw Burmese refugees say more and more youngsters are being press-ganged into working as military porters. A group of Karen children, who say they were used as porters by soldiers in Burma, gather in a village for refugees in northern Thailand, Aug. 23, 2009. Northern Thailand - Children as young as 10 are being forced to work as porters for the Burmese military and ethnic minority Karen troops amid intensifying conflict near the border with Thailand, according to refugees in northern Thailand. One village here in a Karen region houses 95 Burmese refugees, including 39 children under age 12. All say they were taken from their villages in Burma and forced to work as military porters. The increased press-ganging of villagers, including children, into work as porters comes in the wake of intensified fighting in recent months between Burmese government forces supported by elements of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) on the one side and the mostly Christian Karen National Union (KNU) troops on the other, the refugees said. Thousands more are believed also to have fled their homes in Burma since June and to be hiding in villages on the Thai side of the border, according to human rights and aid workers. The prolonged military conflict in the region has meant that none of the Karen children has ever been able to attend school. "I am 10 years old," one shy girl told a visiting reporter. Another, who said she was 16, said she had had to carry dozens of cans of rice in a basket on her back for five days at a stretch and was only given rice with salt and chili peppers to eat. "When it rained we had to sleep under trees, so we would get completely wet from the rain," she added. Pulling children through the jungle A Karen woman in a village for refugees in northern Thailand demonstrates how she was forced her to cover her young son's mouth to keep him from crying while carrying supplies for soldiers in Burma, August 23, 2009. RFA/Khin May Zaw Burmese soldiers forced anyone who had no physical disability to carry goods and ammunition for them, the refugees said. No one was paid for his or her labor. The porters said they don't know if the troops who have press-ganged them into service belong to the DKBA or a joint force comprising soldiers for the DKBA and the ruling junta. Fathers with children able to walk on their own but not big enough to work as porters themselves must hold onto their children while carrying ammunition on their backs, sometimes pulling the children through heavy jungle vegetation, they said. Parents and children are required to sleep separately to prevent them from running away, they said, and the men are told their wives will be taken by soldiers if they try to flee. Parents in the camp said they had no choice but to bring their children, as the only people left behind in their villages were very elderly or too disabled to look after anyone but themselves. One woman carrying her three-year-old son in a sling in front of her demonstrated how she had to carry artillery shells in a basket on her back at the same time. If her child cried, she was told to put her hand over his face to silence him or face a reprimand from the soldiers. She said she had had to carry the shells for four days at a time and was allowed to stop and rest only two or three times a day. Stepped-up recruiting "In the past, they would need porters once a month only," said the head of the village that the group of refugees left behind them. "But now they need them three or four times a month, and we would even have to go to the front line. We would have to supply three soldiers per village, and if the village was bigger we would have had to supply up to 20 soldiers," he said. "If we cannot supply the soldiers we would have to pay 30,000 baht (about U.S. $880). If we cannot give them the money, they would send us to jail," he added. Karen refugees have so far received no aid from international agencies, nor from the Thai government, they said. Sometimes, soldiers from the DKBA stole their goods, even on the Thai side of the border, they added. "When I left I brought with me the best bullock I had, but when I got to Thailand the DKBA stole the bullock from me," she said. "I had to pay them 1,500 baht (U.S. $44) to get my bullock back." According to the Burma-based Karen Human Rights Group, the DKBA began a stepped-up recruitment drive in August 2008 in response to an escalating series of DKBA and joint DKBA/government attacks on KNU and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) positions in the Dooplaya and Pa'an Districts of Karen state. Those attacks have greatly intensified since the start of the year, the group said in a report published on its Web site. Partly under the control of the Burmese government, the DKBA has again increased recruitment as it prepares to transform itself into a Border Guard Force as required by the military junta ahead of elections in 2011. "By June 7, over 3,000 villagers, including the Ler Per Her camp population of just over 1,200 people as well as nearly 2,000 residents from other villages in the area, had fled to neighboring Thailand to avoid fighting as well as forced conscription into work as porters and human minesweepers for DKBA and SPDC forces," the group said Aug. 25. The United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, says there are more than 100,000 registered Burmese refugees inside Thailand today, most of them Karen. * Original reporting in Burmese by Khin May Zaw. Translated by Soe Thinn. Burmese service director: Nancy Shwe. Written for the Web in English by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Sarah Jackson-Han. Daughter of first Myanmar prime minister forms political party Yangon - A daughter of Myanmar's first and last democratically-elected prime minister, U Nu, has set up a political party to contest a general election planned for 2010, party sources said Monday. "Daw (Madame) Than Than Nu, a daughter of U Nu, is a secretary general for the newly formed Democratic Party," Thu Wei, chairman of to the newly established party, told a press conference. The party will be registered after an election law is promulgated by the ruling junta, Thu Wei said. U Nu was Myanmar's first prime minister after the South-East Asian country was granted independence in 1948 from Great Britain, it's former colonial master. He served three premierships until 1962, when U Nu was overthrown by a coup led by General Ne Win, the strongman who dragged Myanmar, also called Burma, down its disastrous slide into socialism under military dictatorship. U Nu died in 1995. The current ruling junta has vowed to hold an election next year to usher in "discipline flourishing" democracy, which will include a senate top-heavy with appointed military men and controls over the budget. The junta has yet to issue an election law that will make clear which political parties will qualify to contest next year's polls. It remains to be seen whether the National League for Democracy (NLD) party, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, will contest the polls, although party officials have indicated they will not. The NLD won the last election in 1990 by a landslide, but was blocked from assuming power by the military. China's Myanmar Dilemma Beijing/Jakarta/Brussels, 14 September 2009: After two decades of failed international approaches to Myanmar, Western countries and China must find better ways to work together to push for change in the military-ruled nation. China's Myanmar Dilemma*, the latest International Crisis Group report, examines Chinese national and provincial policy towards Myanmar and its implications for international approaches toward the country. While many believe that China is the key to pushing Myanmar toward political reform, its influence is overstated. The Myanmar army's recent raid against the Kokang ceasefire group, resulting in the flight of 37,000 refugees to China, highlights the complexity of China's relationship with Myanmar. China was unable to dissuade the generals from launching their bloody campaign. Tensions along the border remain the highest in 20 years. "The insular and nationalistic generals do not take orders from anyone, including Beijing", says Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director. "By continuing to simply expect China to take the lead in solving the problem, a workable international approach to Myanmar will remain elusive". While China shares the aspiration for a stable and prosperous Myanmar, it differs from the West on how to achieve these goals. China will not engage with Myanmar on terms dictated by the West. To bring Beijing on board, the wider international community will need to pursue a plausible strategy that takes advantage of areas of common interest as well as China's actual level of influence. The West should emphasise to China the unsustainable nature of its current policies and continue to apply pressure in the Security Council and other fora. At the same time, China is just one among many countries courting Myanmar. International pressure should not exclude other regional states pursuing their own narrowly defined self interests in Myanmar. "Both Chinese and international policies towards Myanmar deserve careful reassessment," explains Donald Steinberg, Crisis Group's Deputy President for Policy. "An effective international approach also requires a united front by regional actors as well as multilateral institutions such as ASEAN and the UN." *Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org * The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering some 60 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Junta insists KIA be transformed to BGF The Burmese junta is insistent that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the largest ethnic Kachin armed group, transform to the Burmese Army controlled Border Guard Force (BGF), said KIA officers. Lt-Gen Ye Myint, head of the executive committee of transition and junta's Chief of Military Affairs Security (MAS), reiterated the regime's demand of transforming KIA to the BGF to delegates of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the political-wing of the KIA during the meeting in Kachin State's capital Myitkyina on September 9, said KIO delegates. During the meeting, KIO delegates led by Vice-president No. 1 Lt-Gen Gauri Zau Seng brought up other issues not related to the BGF. However, the delegates were confined to the issue of transformation by Lt-Gen Ye Myint, also Naypyitaw negotiator for all ethnic ceasefire groups in the country, KIO delegates said. In principle, the KIO has accepted the transformation of its armed wing, the KIA but not to the junta-proposed Border Guard Force. It wants to change KIA to a self controlled Kachin Regional Guard Force (KRGF). A KIO delegate told KNG today, no decision was arrived at or any positive result surfaced in the negotiation. However, both sides agreed to meet next time after inter-organizational discussions over the latest negotiation process. On the other hand, the junta supremo Senior General Than Shwe has rejected KIO's demands and has refused to meet KIO's civilian peace mediators led by Rev. Dr. Lahtaw Saboi Jum twice. This is because the KIO had approved the junta-drafted new constitution in May, 2008, said Naypyitaw sources. Lt-Gen Ye Myint and Maj-Gen Soe Win, commander of Myitkyina-based Northern Command repeatedly told KIO delegates that the junta is negotiating with the KIO because of the goodwill of Snr-Gen Than Shwe and the military government, when it is really not needed because the KIO approved the new constitution, said sources close to KIO delegates. If the KIO does not want any more meaningless negotiations with the junta they may release a statement, sources close to KIO delegates in Laiza headquarters on the Sino-Burma border in Kachin State said. The KIO delegates returned to Laiza headquarters yesterday evening after a two-day meeting with Lt-Gen Ye Myint. The KIO will respond to the chief negotiator's appeal on the transformation issue after organizational meetings, said KIO officials in Laiza. In a move to clarify the future policy of KIO, it dismissed six high ranking officers from the party including Vice-president No. 2 Dr. Manam Tu Ja and Deputy General Secretary N'Ja Naw Rip on September 2. They are preparing to participate in the 2010 elections planned by the junta. The KIO and KIA have a manpower of over 20,000 and it also has an alliance with three ethnic ceasefire groups in Shan State - the Kokang group also called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA). KIA soldiers in Kachin State and Northeast Shan State are on high alert. They have been ordered to fire at Burmese troops who intrude into their territories since the junta captured the Kokang's capital Laogai on August 24. Body searches ordered at Suu Kyi compound - Ko Htwe Security guards at the compound of Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon now conduct body searches, according to Nyan Win, one of her lawyers, who visited her on Thursday. "Suu Kyi said the tighter security is not appropriate," Nyan Win said. He met with Suu Kyi to discuss her appeal, which is scheduled to be heard on Sept. 18. "There are many security guards outside the compound. In the compound there are only three women. If one lady leaves the compound, they make a record. Suu Kyi said the security is too much," Nyan Win told The Irrawaddy on Friday. "Only one person at a time is allowed inside Suu Kyi's compound. I can not tell the number of guards exactly. When you go in and come out they do a body search," he said. Security around Suu Kyi's compound was increased after she returned home from Insein Prison last month, following her conviction and 18-month sentence under house arrest. Meanwhile, diplomats in Rangoon and Bangkok have asked Burma's ruling junta to allow Suu Kyi to receive diplomatic visitors. Suu Kyi was convicted of violation of the terms of her house arrest after she allowed an American intruder to spend two days at her home. The leader of the National League for Democracy, Burma's main opposition party, Suu Kyi has been detained for more than 14 of the past 20 years. Junta cracks down on internet access in ministries - Aung Thet Wine Government ministries in Burma have clamped down on civil servants accessing the Internet because of leaked information to Burmese exile media, according to sources in Naypyidaw. The ministries include the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Revenue, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Hotels and Tourism and the Ministry of Industry No.1, said the source. An employee in the Ministry of Commerce in Naypyidaw said that information from confidential files detailing the work of high officials with foreign countries, especially North Korea, have appeared in the exile media, including The Irrawaddy. The source said that the order was posted by the ministry's director-general. Government workers who need to use the Internet now must request permission. Also, workers are now restricted to using government e-mail accounts assigned to them, and they may not use non-government accounts at work. Sources said the speed and efficiency of work has been greatly reduced, because people routinely need to access the Internet for information. A Rangoon civil servant said, "Before I could look at exile media news from my office. But, after exile media reported about Burma's plans to acquire nuclear technology, they blocked Internet access at our office." A computer technician in Rangoon said, "Our government is trying to move backward, while many other developing countries are trying to move forward. "They often boast that they will implement e-government systems within ministries. If they want to do that, why are they restricting the Internet?" he said. According to the CIA World Fact Book, there were 70,000 Burmese Internet users in 2007 and 108 internet hosts in 2008, while Thailand had 13.4 million Internet users and 1.1 million Internet hosts in the same period. Internet speed in Burma is normally slow compared to neighboring countries. Since September 2007, the junta has viewed Internet users as a threat to military control of information. The international community learned of the junta's brutal crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in 2008 through reports from private citizens posted on the Internet. The authorities post notices in Internet shops in Burma that warn customers accessing banned Web sites is against the law. Inside Burma's War - Hannah Beech Laiza - Duct tape holds together his Chinese-made assault rifle, and the mosquito net in his rucksack gapes with so many holes that it practically invites dengue- and malaria-carrying insects to feast on his body. Felix has never fought in the jungles of northeastern Burma, where a rebel army is preparing for war with one of Asia's largest militaries. With no heavy artillery and little more than flip-flops and used flashlights to give their recruits, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) can only depend on guerrilla tactics to deter soldiers of the Burmese military regime. The 24-year-old cadet at the KIA's military academy, deep in the monsoon-drenched hills of Kachin state, juts his chin out, blinks back tears and announces he is ready for deployment. "I am shaking very hard inside," he tells me, his voice trembling. "But I have a responsibility to complete my mission." Felix was promoted to active duty last month, when tensions reached fever pitch between Burma's ruling junta and various armed ethnic groups in the country's northern borderlands. In late August, the military regime unexpectedly overran the army of the nearby Kokang minority, sending some 30,000 refugees spilling into neighboring China. Now other ethnic militias who control various jigsaw-puzzle pieces of northeastern Burma - the Kachin, the Wa, the Eastern Shan - are reinforcing their ragged armies and playing a terrifying guessing game: Who's next on the junta's hit list? (Read "A Closer Look at Burma's Ethnic Minorities.") Two decades after Burma's army dictatorship reached an uneasy peace with a patchwork of ethnic militias, the country is again poised on the brink of civil war. The junta has long maintained a tense relationship with the up to 40% of the country's population that is composed of ethnic minorities. When Burma won independence from the British in 1948, political groups representing some of the country's 130-plus ethnicities agreed to join the union in exchange for autonomy. But uprisings quickly proliferated in the country's vast frontier, only worsening after the military regime wrested control of the country in 1962 and began limiting ethnic freedoms. Beginning in 1989, cease-fires were signed with 17 rebel militias, and certain ethnicities were granted a measure of self-rule. The junta claimed victory for having united one of the world's most diverse countries - and promptly began mining the natural resources that abounded in tribal regions. With nationwide elections slated for next year, Burma's ethnic minorities may soon lose what little sovereignty they have left. The junta claims the polls are the final step in creating what it calls a "discipline-flourishing democracy," after it ignored the results of the last elections back in 1990. International human-rights groups, however, decry the process as little more than a choreographed exercise designed to legitimize the junta and stamp out any threats to its power. In April, the Burmese government informed the cease-fire groups that as part of the electoral run-up they would have to refashion their armies as part of a centrally controlled border guard force, the first step in what many fear will be the death knell to ethnic autonomy. The deadline to accede to the regime's demand is October. Most ethnic groups have already responded with a firm no - among them the Kachin and the Kokang, whose two-decade cease-fire with the Burmese abruptly ended last month when junta forces invaded its tiny territory. The ease with which the Kokang were defeated presumably buoyed the junta, many of whose members gained their battlefield experience against ethnic militias. "Everyone in the West talks about democracy and [Nobel Peace Prize laureate] Aung San Suu Kyi," says Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese military expert and former communist rebel living in exile in China's Yunnan province. "But the junta's biggest enemy is not her. It is the ethnics." (Read "Burma Court Finds Aung San Suu Kyi Guilty.") The renewed threat of civil war in Burma isn't just an internal problem. The country's minorities are concentrated in its borderlands, and in recent weeks, as the junta has surged into rebel territory, tens of thousands of ethnic refugees have poured into Thailand and China. Beyond the international humanitarian crisis also lies a potential economic one. Neighboring nations are increasingly dependent on Burma's resources, and most of the country's natural wealth - from jade and timber to hydropower and natural gas - is concentrated in the tribal regions. The planned route for a Chinese-financed project of dual natural-gas and oil pipelines, for instance, begins in an ethnically troubled part of western Burma's Arakan state and runs past the part of Shan state where fighting raged last month in Kokang. Construction of the Shwe pipeline project, the biggest ever foreign investment commitment to Burma, was supposed to begin this month, but ethnic skirmishes may imperil that schedule. Reports are also trickling in from Kachin state, where dam projects funded by foreign investors are suspending operations because of potential violence. Little wonder that Beijing, which usually shields Burma from any formal criticism by the U.N., publicly condemned the Kokang assault, warning that the junta should "properly handle domestic problems and maintain stability in the … border region." Law of the Jungle To get to the KIA's mountainous stronghold of Laiza, I first traveled deep into China's southwestern Yunnan province, to a small trading settlement called Nabang. Even though the border town is in China, many of its residents wore Burmese longyis, or sarongs, and women's faces were painted beige with the thanaka paste used in Burma as a skin salve. Despite the occasional truck rumbling past overloaded with teak logs from Burma, Nabang felt like it was just emerging from an opium-induced nap. But a quick splash across a few bamboo planks strewn across a river and I entered another world. Laiza was very much awake, a hair-trigger atmosphere only heightened by the fact that practically every teenaged boy appeared to have a machine gun slung over his shoulder. Soldiers from the KIA's mobile brigade materialized from the sub-tropical canopy, stealthy as the tigers that prowl Kachin state. As my jeep climbed up a mountain path, I passed teenagers with the hardened gazes of men trudging toward a military-recruiting office. The number of youth who have volunteered to enlist has skyrocketed, as the drumbeat of war with Burma's junta escalates. (Read "Why Violence Erupted on the China-Burma Border.") Many of these youngsters fit Hollywood casting for Southeast Asian guerrillas: scrawny, scrappy adolescents who show no sign of needing a shave anytime soon. But Felix, who sidled up to me as I watched the KIA academy cadets run through their drills, disturbed the easy image of a militia conscripting hungry boys in return for a fistful of rice. Armed with a university degree in international relations, Felix speaks fluent English and expresses himself eloquently on political philosophy. But as an ethnic Kachin - an ethnicity more than 1 million strong, famed for its fortitude while serving on the Allied side in World War II - Felix knows his chances of succeeding in junta-controlled Burma are as slender as the jungle vines KIA soldiers sometimes eat to survive. So he has joined other disillusioned university graduates among the KIA ranks. "Some people say we must have dialogue with the SPDC," he says, referring to the junta by its Orwellian-sounding moniker, the State Peace and Development Council. "But that is a snail's pace. The only thing the SPDC understands is force, so we must meet their force with ours." Ethnic Tinderbox Although the Burmese majority faces plenty of repression, there's no question that the junta reserves its worst brutality for ethnic groups. International human-rights organizations have documented a wide array of abuses against minorities, ranging from forced labor and army conscription to mass rape and village relocations that have displaced 500,000 people in eastern Burma alone. Complicating matters, some ethnic groups are not Buddhist in a country where the junta celebrates that faith and often persecutes those who do not. (The Kachin, Chin and many Karen, for example, are Christian.) Career trajectories for many ethnic minorities are stunted. Despite their proud martial tradition, Kachin know it's nearly impossible to rise in the Burmese army beyond the junior rank of captain. In recent months, the decades of persistent discrimination have spawned an unusual alliance between four armed ethnic groups: the KIA, the United Wa State Army, the Eastern Shan State Army (also known as the Mongla army) and the Kokang Army. The junta's lightning strike on the Kokang capital Laogai, which is estimated to have caused some 200 civilian casualties, left the other alliance members ill-equipped to respond immediately. But exile groups in China and Thailand are reporting that the Wa - which, with some 25,000 foot soldiers and an arsenal of heavy artillery, is the strongest of the rebel armies - is providing support to the shreds of Kokang forces still fighting, as well as giving sanctuary to Kokang leader Peng Jiasheng. With the junta reinforcing troop levels in the country's north, another ethnic militia, the Karen National Liberation Army in eastern Burma, hopes to recuperate after a devastating series of losses earlier this summer. Cohesion among the ethnic groups, which spent considerable time fighting one another as well as the junta, could change the nature of battle in Burma. At the KIA's self-styled Pentagon, a collection of simple concrete buildings on a breezy hilltop, members of other ethnic groups have come to be schooled in military tactics from one of the most tenacious rebel militias. One youth leader from the western state of Arakan spoke to me in smooth, American-inflected English. "I need to do something practical," he said. "I need to prepare for war. Politics in this country is crap. It's just a way for the SPDC to stay in power." The Politics of Money As they face the possibility of renewed conflict, leaders of some of the ethnic militias aren't just looking out for their downtrodden populaces. They're also protecting their own interests in a region that, after all, extends into the infamous Golden Triangle. Starved of other economic means, some rebel armies have resorted to dubious funding schemes, like selling opium, illegal timber and methamphetamines. During the ceasefire period, the junta largely turned a blind eye to such businesses, which financed spacious villas and golf courses for some ethnic commanders. When U.N. special envoy Ibrahim Gambari visited Burma in 2007, one of the people he met was Kokang honcho Peng, who was trotted out to represent the junta's amity with ethnic groups. But this summer, Peng publicly rejected the idea of turning his army into a border force. By early August, the junta was accusing Peng of being behind an illegal arms-and-drugs factory. The illicit activity, claimed the regime, compelled it to invade Kokang turf, even though the warlord's business proclivities had been an open secret for years. Indeed, both the Eastern Shan and Wa are also believed to have financed themselves through such shady means; the latter's southern commander, Wei Hsueh-kang, has been singled out by the U.S. Treasury Department as a major drug trafficker. Indeed, one battle-avoiding option for the junta is luring corrupt ethnic elders to its side. "Divide-and-conquer tactics are the SPDC's best friend," says KIA Brigadier General Gun Maw. (Read about the 2007 crackdown in Burma.) The complicated ethnic landscape puts Burma's giant neighbor, China, in a bind. Over the past few years, tens of thousands of Chinese businesspeople have fanned across Burma, setting up trading companies and filling downtowns with signs in Chinese characters. Much of the recent Chinese influx is in ethnic areas, where rebel groups have also come to rely on Chinese-made arms to continue their struggle against the junta. (The Chinese, however, are an equal-opportunity weapons dealer, supplying the junta with much of its military hardware.) With the possibility of war breaking out along its long border with Burma, China is finding that its presumption of easy political influence down south may have been misplaced. High-level Chinese emissaries, say Burmese analysts, recently visited Burma to warn the junta to avoid any border instability in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China on Oct. 1. The Kokang attack, which reportedly came as a surprise to Beijing, was seen as a direct defiance of that admonition. Since the Kokang clash, Chinese troop levels have doubled along sections of the usually porous border, and China's Defense Minister embarked on an emergency trip to Chengdu, whose regional army command covers the Burma border region. Clash of Titans It's perhaps no surprise that the junta is wary of Chinese influence, notwithstanding the two nations' growing economic ties. For decades, Beijing financially supported communist rebels in northern Burma, even at one point sending People's Liberation Army troops to reinforce their Burmese brothers in arms. For the fervently anticommunist junta, memories of this Chinese patronage are still fresh. It also doesn't help Burmese nationalism that large parts of Mandalay, the country's second largest city and historic royal capital, have turned into a giant Chinatown. "The SPDC wants to remake its image as the new great kings of Burma," says Aung Kyaw Zaw, the former communist rebel who now lives in Yunnan. "So even if they take advantage of China for business reasons, they don't want any foreigners interfering in their kingdom." That notion of a Burmese kingdom has already been threatened by the country's ethnic minorities. In the 1990 elections that the military disregarded, its proxy party was trounced by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy. But what's often forgotten about those polls is that the parties that finished second and third in terms of parliamentary seats were ethnic ones from Shan and Arakan states, respectively. (The military party came in fourth.) Burma's generals surely want to avoid a repeat of that ethnic electoral success. Back in the hills of Laiza, as mosquitoes began to swarm in the late afternoon, I met Lieutenant Colonel Hkam Sa, who runs a training course for KIA officers. He has been with the rebel army since 1963, just two years after it was formed. For the first time since the KIA signed its cease-fire with the junta 15 years ago, he canceled classes and sent his battalion commanders back to active duty. "When I joined the KIA, I was 17 years old and I thought that Burma would end in the flames of civil war," he told me. "Today, if you ask me the same question, I will give you the same answer: Burma will end up in civil war." If he's right, the hills of northern Burma will crackle with gunfire once again, and Felix will be heading off to battle. Total says won't quit Myanmar after NGO accusation Paris - French energy major Total will not leave Myanmar, its head told a French daily, after a U.S. environmental group accused it of supporting the country's military junta with revenue from its gas operations. The report by Earth Rights International (ERI) said the Yadana gas project, which also involves Chevron Corp of the U.S. and Thailand's PTTEP PTTE.BK, had generated $4.83 billion for the regime since 2000, nearly all of which was siphoned off from the national budget and into offshore bank accounts in Singapore. "The mission of Total is not to restore democracy in the world," Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie told Le Parisien in an interview published on Friday. "I repeat, leaving will not make human rights more respected … If this gas was not produced by Total, it would be by others, and it would change nothing to the revenues of the junta." Margerie also said Myanmar opposition leader and Peace Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent most of the past 20 years in detention by the junta, had not asked Total to go. "She never asked me to leave Myanmar. Never!" he said. Despite a broad range of sanctions placed on Myanmar by the U.S. and European Union because of political repression, its vast reserves of natural gas have been a financial lifeline for the regime. In November 2005 Total agreed to pay compensation to eight Myanmar citizens who accused the group of forced labour. Contacted by Reuters on Friday, a Total spokesman did not wish to comment further on the interview China, Myanmar border on a conflict - Brian McCartan Bangkok - An ominous lull has fallen over northern Myanmar since the military government's defeat last week of Kokang ethnic insurgents. All sides appear to be preparing for the next round, which, depending on the scale of the offensive or counter-offensive, could plunge other ceasefire regions into renewed civil war. It is unclear whether Myanmar's generals are willing to challenge the better-armed ethnic Wa and Kachin - and by proxy potentially China - or if recent moves are part of an elaborate strategic bluff. By taking out the Kokang, which in their tens of thousands fled across the border into northern China, the junta has tested both Beijing's resolve to back Myanmar-based insurgent groups and the willingness of the ceasefire groups to militarily support each other. Many analysts believed that past Chinese support for ceasefire groups along its border would discourage the junta from carrying out its threats to force them to transform into border guard units under the government's command in advance of next year's democratic elections. That analysis was bolstered by reports that Chinese officials told their Myanmar counterparts that they would brook no instability along their shared 2,185-kilometer border in the run-up to this October's 60-year celebrations of the communist victory in China. Myanmar's junta has demanded that the main ceasefire groups in northern Myanmar, including the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) reduce the size of their forces and join a Myanmar army-administered Border Guard Force. The transformation of autonomous militias to state-controlled border guards would require the various ethnic political organizations battling for autonomy in their regions to lose their armed wings and effectively diminish their negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the regime. All of the mentioned groups rejected the proposal. Instead they requested to continue with the current ceasefires until after elections and work out new arrangements with a democratically elected government. China has been supportive of the ceasefire groups through calls for national reconciliation, by mediating in disputes between the groups and Myanmar's military and by putting pressure on the regime to refrain from using force to press its demands. Those overtures suit Beijing's broad aim of maintaining stability in border areas while simultaneously providing Beijing military and political proxies in case of instability inside Myanmar, as witnessed in the massive civil unrest in 1988 and 2007. Myanmar's stability is important to China because of its hefty investments in natural resource extraction and the country's strategic geography as a conduit to the sea for trade from China's landlocked southwest Yunnan province. Construction of an oil and gas pipeline is slated to begin this month and finish in 2012 which will allow China to receive shipments of Middle Eastern fuel without having to travel through the Malacca Straits. China is known to fear the potential of a naval blockade there in any potential conflict with the United States. The recent offensive against the Kokang resulted in China reinforcing its police and military units along the border and a rare rebuke from the Foreign Ministry. A statement released from Beijing on August 28 said China "hopes that Myanmar can appropriately solve its relevant internal problems and safeguard the stability of the China-Myanmar border". It went on to request that the government "protect the safety and legal rights of Chinese citizens in Myanmar". Myanmar in turn apologized for any Chinese casualties that occurred during the hostilities and thanked Beijing for its assistance in caring for refugees. According to Chinese officials in Yunnan province, around 37,000 refugees streamed across the border in the wake of the recent fighting. Security analysts are now eyeing the outcome of meetings between Chinese and Myanmar officials and the impact they could have on regional security. Dropping the gauntlet Many were surprised by Myanmar's apparent willingness to challenge China on the ceasefire groups. Opposition sources claim that two meetings between high-level officials already took place on August 31, entailing one in Yunnan between Myanmar Deputy Home Affairs Minister Brigadier General Phone Swe and Chinese Minister for Public Security Meng Jian, and another in the northern Myanmar town of Lashio between senior officers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the Myanmar Army, including Lieutenant General Min Aung Hlaing, commander of all units in Shan State. An alliance of ceasefire groups known as the Myanmar Peace and Democracy Front (MPDF) and encompassing the MNDAA, UWSA, NDAA and the KIA was established in March to show a united front against the military regime and its autonomy eroding Border Guard Force proposal. The alliance was only announced in August when tensions between the Kokang-led MNDAA and the Myanmar military began to mount. Another ceasefire group, the Shan State Army (North) located in central Shan State, is also believed to be linked to the grouping. The MNDAA were recognized by the Myanmar military as the weakest link in the loose alliance. By exploiting a split among the Kokang leadership over its position on the Border Guard Force proposal, the regime was able to move quickly against the MNDAA on August 27 and drive them from their capital across the border into China or into the surrounding mountains in only two days. The offensive tested the resolve of the 20,000-strong UWSA to come to the aid of their neighboring alliance partners. The alliance was previously touted as a mutual security guarantee, but that is not how it played out on the battlefield. Although a force of around 500 UWSA soldiers from its northern Namteuk-based 318 Division initially reinforced the Kokang, they pulled back the next day to Wa-controlled territory south of the Namting River. Some Myanmar watchers saw the tactical retreat as a lack of resolve on behalf of the UWSA, an assessment the Myanmar army may now share. At the same time, Myanmar's generals now have some idea of what China's response would be to potential offensives against other ceasefire groups. It is unclear what battlefield advantage Myanmar military's may have gained by its successful assault against the Kokang, but its reinforcement of units facing other insurgent positions, including the placement of more artillery and tanks against the NDAA and Wa troops along the China and Thai borders, suggests it believes it has won an upper hand. At the same time, strategic analysts doubt whether the military could launch a full-scale offensive against ceasefire groups and maintain security over next year's elections. The UWSA and KIA represent stronger adversaries than the MNDAA. The UWSA has 20,000-25,000 soldiers backed by mortars, artillery and anti-aircraft weapons. The KIA has another 5,000 soldiers under arms and were previously able to hold the Myanmar army at bay for nearly two decades. Security experts, including a Thai intelligence officer who spoke on condition of anonymity, believe it could take a decade or more of heavy fighting to finally subdue the groups. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, the Wa fought bloody pitched battles with the Myanmar Army as part of the Burmese Communist Party. The Wa are even better armed now than they were then. Even without Chinese aid, the KIA, UWSA and NDAA could adopt guerrilla strategies that prolong the fighting. The insurgent forces of the Karen, Karenni and Shan on the Thai-Myanmar border are also a thorn in the regime's side, despite losing substantial territory and largely disowned since the 1980s by Thailand. Bangkok previously supported ethnic groups along its border as a buffer against Myanmar but now commercially engages with the regime, including the import of crucial natural gas supplies. Wider conflict With the predictions of possible protracted warfare and by showing its hand against the MNDAA, it is unlikely that Myanmar's military will be able to exert control over the ceasefire regions in time for the 2010 elections. The large number of troops it would take to defeat the insurgents would also weaken the regime's hold over security in other parts of the country. Myanmar's junta still clearly fears the possibility of widespread urban civil unrest, as seen in the 2007 Buddhist monk-led Saffron Revolution and which some Myanmar watchers believe is still simmering below the surface. The regime thus requires a large security presence in and around Myanmar's cities as a deterrent against future protests. Ceasefire groups in other parts of the country are similarly peeved with the border guard proposal and provisions in the new constitution and may see renewed hostilities in the north as chance to resume their armed struggles. Such groups, analysts say, could include the New Mon State Party in the southeast, which was the first group to reject the border guard proposal, as well as groups representing smaller ethnic minorities such as the Karenni and Pa-O in eastern Myanmar. The need for the army to shift troops to the north would also give beleaguered non-ceasefire groups such as the Karen National Union and the Shan State Army (South) breathing room and an opportunity to rebuild their beleaguered forces. A worst case scenario for the regime could see these groups joining with the northern insurgent groups in a new, wider alliance. Although these alliances have not fared well in the past and for the time being seem unlikely, it is a scenario that would quickly over-stretch the regime's ground forces. China may eventually call Myanmar's bluff. While China has willingly accepted Kokang refugees onto its soil, Beijing would no doubt be less tolerant of the sustained disruption in trade and investment caused by large and persistent refugee flows driven by more open warfare. Ramped up Chinese support for the ethnic groups would limit the impact of Myanmar military assaults on border regions and potentially spark a protracted war that Myanmar's cash-strapped regime clearly cannot afford. That could mean the generals allow other ethnic groups to retain their arms and ceasefire status until after the elections and then push them to negotiate a new deal with an elected government under the new constitution. That scenario, however, would require the generals to swallow their military pride, something they have shown a strong aversion to in the past. * Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. US Senator's Burma trip may lead to Aung San Suu Kyi's release - Larry Jagan SENATOR Jim Webb's visit to Burma may yet prove to be extremely significant as he seeks to swap western sanctions for engagement with the military regime. "It is vitally important that the United States re-engage with Southeast Asia, including Myanmar, at all levels," the American politician told journalists during a press conference in Bangkok immediately after he left Rangoon. One of the key reasons he sees for the need for the US to strengthen its role in the region is China's growing influence, which he believes is a major obstacle to economic and political development in the area, especially Burma. If the senator gets his way, and US policy begins to change, it will also have important consequences for the countries of ASEAN, India and Bangladesh. More importantly the senator's trip reflects the junta's new approach to the international community and especially its neighbours. The trip may also lead to the early release of the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Senator Webb's main mission on this visit was to meet the reclusive Burmese military rulers in their hideaway in the mountains north of the former capital Rangoon and try to coax them out of their isolation. He had talks with the junta's top general, Than Shwe who rarely meets foreign visitors and the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. But at this stage everything to do with his visit is still shrouded in mystery. Despite meeting journalists on two occasions while in Bangkok, the usually talkative politician was overtly coy, extremely evasive and continually non-committal. "He is hiding something," said a senior western diplomat who closely follows Burmese affairs. "He knows more than he's telling, something is surely afoot." This was certainly no ordinary or even private visit, despite senior state department officials insisting that the senator visited Burma in a personal capacity. The US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, rang him on Sunday night to talk about the trip, Webb let slip during his press conference last week. This only adds to the increasing suspicion that something significant may be happening beneath the public gaze. After all that is how serious diplomacy takes place. Senator Webb, it must be remembered, is a rising political star in Washington, close to the Clintons and President Barack Obama, according to sources on the Hill. He is also tipped to become the next secretary of defence, when the Bush-appointee Bill Gates stands down in around two years' time. He is currently the chairman of the Senate foreign affairs East Asia and the Pacific sub-committee. It is this guise he is using to justify his visit. Add to that the fact that he is a former marine and Vietnam veteran, making him some the senior general respect. So the US could not have had a better envoy even if unofficially - than this conservative Democrat from Virginia. While Webb as was expected told Than Shwe that Aung San Suu Kyi should be released before the 2010 election, and allowed a political role. "We will just have to wait and see how the Myanmar government responds," he told journalists at the end of his visit. "I am hopeful that they will give my recommendation [that she be freed] serious consideration," he added. "Than Shwe can be in no dount, that without Aung San Suu Kyi being released and her party the NLD [National League for Democracy] allowed to participate in the elections, the US and the international community would find it impossible to accept the process as free and fair," he said. For the generals, their apparent attitude to the senator during his visit also significantly suggests that they are shifting in their usual position on non-engagement with the international community. Senator Webb was given a ceremonial reception with all the top generals that is usually reserved only for visiting heads of state. Shown prominently on the state-run television, it clearly shows Burma's military rulers now crave international, especially American, recognition, said a long-time foreign resident in Rangoon. General Than Shwe is the master of disception and psychological warfare. Divide and rule an approach to power cleaned from their colonial masters, Britain - has long-dominated the Burmese generals strategic options. Their chauvanism and xenophpbia makes them extremely cautious about being over reliant on any one ally. At present there are growing concerns at the top of the military about China's position, and the top gneeral is looking at how tobalance their growing influence in the country. Relations with ASEAN, India and to some extent Russia, was menat to do that but over the last twelve months China's economic and military role has grown out of all proportions dwarfing the position of the other Asian allies. "More critically, China has not backed the regime strongly enough in its efforts to disorm the ethnic cease-fire groups," Win Min a Burmese academic at Chiang Mai University told the Daily Star. "This has angered the Than Shwe, who may now be looking for alternative ways to reign in the rebel groups." "The warm reception given to the US delegation led by Senator Webb, including the diplomat staff based in Rangoon who are normally shunned or called in to get a dressing down was a clear signal to the Chinese," said an Asia diplomat based in Rangoon. "See if you don't help us we can turn to other powerful friends." So the Burmese military regime seems to be trying to make some international re-alignments. But if they are serious about engaging the international community, espcially the US, it may even heed some of its concerns, and then they will have no alternative but to deal with Aung San Suu Kyi. Than Shwe, at the behest of some of its Asian allies, especially Singapore and China, is keen to improve relations with the US, according to military sources in the Burmese capital Naypitdaw. The senator's visit makes this extremely evident. "You cannot fail to see in this that the junta is keen to tell the world that sanctions do not work and we are open to dialogue at least with other governments, if not Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro-democracy movement inside the country," said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. But the hints from the Americans, is that this was more than an exploratory trip by the Senator concrete matters were discussed and some kind of deal maybe in the pipeline. "I believe that if the right obstacles are removed and if the United States has a very clear position on some of these obstacles the notion of sanctions economically in this country is negative … it is not good," he told Burmese journalists at the airport before he left on Sunday. One of the key obstacles is certainly the continued detention of Aung San Suu Kyi. The season Burma-watcher, and former British ambassador to Thailand and Vietnam Derek Tonkin is another who believes there is more to Webb's than meets the eye as yet. "I sense there is more to this vists than we know," he told the Daily Star. "It is probably all about a deal on Suu Kyi," he added. Aung San Suu Kyi will be released before the elections next year, a senior military source told the Daily Star. These are expected to be held late next years. But now is seems likely that the Lady, as she is frequently referred to in Burma, may be freed before the end of the year. * The author writes for The Daily Star from Bangkok. Emerging Fault Lines in Sino-Burmese Relations: The Kokang Incident Armed conflict between Burma's armed forces (known as the Tatmadaw) and the Kokang militia (known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA), along the Sino-Burmese border in late August brought into sharp focus the complex and sometimes testy relationship between Burma (Myanmar) and the People's Republic of China (PRC). During the fighting the MNDAA - which has close links to the PRC - was routed, over 40 persons were killed, and tens of thousands of refugees streamed across the border into China. The incident underscored how the ruling junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is capable of undertaking actions that challenge Beijing's interests, belying characterizations of Burma as a client state of China. Burma and China forged close relations in the late 1980s following international disapprobation and economic sanctions in the wake of their crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators in August 1988 and June 1989, respectively. On balance, both governments benefited greatly from tightening relations: the Burmese military regime was able to consolidate power largely thanks to arms, economic aid and the diplomatic recognition provided by the PRC; in return, China gained privileged access to Burma's rich natural resources and access to the Indian Ocean (China Brief, February 7, 2007). China's economic penetration of Burma deepened in the first decade of the twenty-first century as the West tightened economic sanctions against the regime. Bilateral commerce reached $2.4 billion in 2007-2008, accounting for a quarter of all Burma's foreign trade and a 60 per cent increase over what it was three years ago (Mizzima News, October 24, 2008). Chinese companies have invested heavily in the country's manufacturing, mining, power generation and energy sectors, and in 2008-2009 China emerged as Burma's number one investor, pumping $856 million into the country, or 87 percent of all foreign investments (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, July 14). Close relations with Burma have also enabled China to improve its energy security situation. In March, after several years of negotiations, an agreement was signed to build twin oil and gas pipelines from the port of Kyaukphyu in Arakan State to Kunming, Yunnan Province. Construction of the 1,200 mile pipelines is scheduled to begin this month, with China footing the $2.5 billion bill. When completed in 2013, the pipelines will not only be used to transport oil and gas from Burma's offshore energy fields to the PRC, but also from the Middle East and Africa, thereby bypassing the Strait of Malacca, which Chinese strategists view as a strategic vulnerability (China Brief, April 12, 2006). Despite the obvious gains Burma's junta has accrued from its ties to the Chinese government, the ruling generals - many of whom fought against the China-backed Communist Party of Burma (CPB) in the 1960s and 1970s - resented their dependence on Beijing and from the mid-1990s moved to lessen that dependence by joining ASEAN and courting other major powers such as India and Russia [1]. Notwithstanding the SPDC's success in diversifying the country's foreign relations, China remains Burma's most important international partner. Moreover, despite the absence of genuine trust between the two governments, China and Burma have arrived at a mutually beneficial arrangement: Beijing provides diplomatic cover for the junta at the United Nations, soft loans and weapons supplies; in return it expects the SPDC to provide stability so Chinese companies can reap long-term returns on their considerable investments. China has lived up to its side of the bargain. Twice in 2007 it wielded its veto at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to protect Burma in the face of international criticism (China Brief, October 17, 2007). More recently, in August, China used its diplomatic clout at the UNSC to dilute a statement of concern following the conviction of Aung San Su Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), for violating the terms of her house arrest with the visit by John Yettaw - an American who swam across Inya Lake to her house - in May (Straits Times, August 15). On the bilateral front, the PRC has shown increasing signs of frustration, however, with the SPDC for the slow pace of political reform and economic development, both of which it believes would defuse popular resentment against the regime and enhance stability. Beginning in 2004, Chinese leaders publicly called on the junta to move forward with the so-called "roadmap to democracy," the framing of a new Constitution and national reconciliation. A new Constitution was framed in 2008, but Beijing has kept up pressure on the SPDC to maintain the momentum. In April, for instance, on the sidelines of the Baoa Forum in Hainan Province, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told his Burmese counterpart Thein Shein that China hoped the SPDC could achieve "political stability, economic development and national reconciliation" (Xinhua News Agency, April 17). The detention of Ms. Suu Kyi in May was a major setback for national reconciliation, and prompted China's Foreign Ministry to call for reconciliation, stability and development through "dialogue with all parties" (Xinhua News Agency, May 19). According to some reports, China has advised the junta to allow U.N. Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari to play a more active role in fostering dialogue between the SPDC and Suu Kyi, advice the junta is loath to accept (Mizzima, January 20). Burma's Policy Toward Ceasefire Groups Generates Tensions Another source of instability, and one that puts China in a difficult position and threatens to undermine its economic interests in Burma, is the SPDC's policy toward ethnic armies in the north and northeast of the country. During the 1960s and 1970s, the PRC provided the BCP with arms and money to sustain an insurgency against the central government. In the 1980s, however, Beijing phased out its material support to the BCP in the interests of promoting greater economic interaction between the two countries, especially along the 1,300-mile border where fighting had stymied trade. In 1989 the BCP fractured along ethnic lines, and China was able to use its long-standing connections with local leaders to facilitate ceasefire agreements between the Burmese government and ethnic groups such as the Wa, Shan, Kachin, and Kokang. Seventeen ceasefire agreements were reached, (rising to 27 in the 1990s): in return for ending hostilities against the junta, the ceasefire groups were allowed to retain control over their territories, armed militias and lucrative businesses, including gems, lumber and narcotics production. The ceasefires ushered in two decades of uneasy peace. According to the new Constitution, the Tatmadaw has sole responsibility for national defense. In April, therefore, the SPDC demanded that the ceasefire groups disarm or transform their armies into smaller, lightly armed border guard militias under the command of the Tatmadaw. While some of the smaller ceasefire groups have accepted the government's demand, the largest ones such as the Wa, Kachin, and Shan have rejected it for fear of losing their autonomy and business interests. The most important ceasefire group to reject the SPDC's demand is the United Wa State Army (UWSA) which has an estimated 20,000 men under arms. Formerly the shock troops of the BCP, China has maintained close links to the UWSA over the past two decades. The U.S. government labeled the UWSA a narcotic trafficking organization on May 29, 2003. Chinese businessmen have extensive commercial interests in the Wa region (both legal and illegal) and the area provides a conduit into Burma proper: according to some estimates, one to two million Chinese citizens have taken up residency in the country and now dominate the commercial life of Upper Burma centered on Mandalay. Over the years, China has ensured a steady supply of weapons to the UWSA, including shoulder fired surface to air missiles, artillery and anti-aircraft guns (Jane's Intelligence Review, March 2008). Moreover, Beijing has been able to use its influence with UWSA leaders to redirect the flow of illegal narcotics produced in the Wa area, including methamphetamines, away from China and into Thailand, Laos and Cambodia [2]. Nevertheless, narcotics produced in Burma continue to find their way into southwest China, fueling a major drug addiction problem there. Determined to consolidate control over the entire country before elections next year, the SPDC has refused to take no for an answer. In June the Tatmadaw attacked and captured bases belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army along the Thai border. In early August the government shifted attention to the MNDAA in Kokang, an ethnically Chinese region in the northern Shan State bordering China. As with the UWSA, the Kokang have maintained close links with China since the dissolution of the BCP in 1989. On August 24, the Tatmadaw routed the 1,000-strong MNDAA and occupied the capital Laogai. The conflict sparked an exodus of 37,000 refugees - mainly Kokang Chinese but also PRC nationals - into Nansen county, Yunnan (Xinhua News Agency, September 4). Among the refuges were 700 MNDAA fighters who were disarmed by the Chinese authorities (The Irrawaddy, September 1). During the fighting, shells fired by the Tatmadaw landed on the Chinese side of the border, killing one person (Xinhua News Agency, August 30). Beijing issued a sharp rebuke to the SPDC, calling on it to immediately restore stability along the border and, unprecedentedly, to "protect the safety and legal rights of Chinese citizens in Myanmar" (Global Times, August 29). According to both governments the situation has stabilized and the Chinese authorities have been encouraging the refugees to return. According to Chinese official estimates, a total of 9,304 Kokang inhabitants had returned to Laogai (Xinhua News Agency, September 4). Reports suggest, however, that the majority of refugees are reluctant to return home for fear of retribution (The Irrawaddy, September 4). Naypyidaw justified the attacks on the MNDAA as part of a crackdown on illegal narcotics and arms production. Yet, the assault on the Kokang militia can be seen as a warning signal to the UWSA that the SPDC is committed to bringing the border areas under its control before 2010. According to some observers, the junta has been inspired by the Sri Lankan government's military victory over Tamil separatists earlier this year (Straits Times, August 30). An attack on the UWSA, however, would be a risky undertaking. Although the Tatmadaw is numerically superior, the UWSA is well-armed and knows the territory intimately. Even if the Tatmadaw was able to seize the Wa capital of Panghsang, UWSA fighters could simply melt away into the mountains and forests from where they would be able to mount a lengthy insurgency against government forces. A protracted and bloody conflict along the border is an unsettling prospect for the PRC for four reasons. First, fighting would severely disrupt bilateral trade, much of which is conducted at the border, and hence the economic development of China's landlocked southwest provinces. Second, as demonstrated by the Kokang incident, conflict would inevitably trigger an outpouring of refugees into China that the authorities would be forced to feed and house. Third, construction of the Kyaukphyu-Kunming pipelines, which China considers a strategic necessity, may have to be suspended as the proposed route passes close to Wa controlled areas. Fourth, the Wa would likely increase narcotics production to finance operations against the Tatmadaw, which could fuel drug addition in the PRC. With so much at stake, Chinese officials are undoubtedly working frantically behind the scenes to broker an agreement between the SPDC and UWSA. Such a deal would almost certainly involve China providing financial sweeteners to both sides. If China fails to pull off a deal, a return to hostilities cannot be ruled out. In the final analysis, however, Beijing's relationship with the SPDC is more highly valued than its ties to the Wa, meaning China might have to cut its proxy loose, and possibly close the border in the event of hostilities. Instability along the frontier is not the only contentious issue in Sino-Burmese relations. The growing nexus between Burma and North Korea, including allegations that Pyongyang is assisting the junta to acquire nuclear weapons capabilities, has generated a lot of negative publicity for the PRC because of its close links to both governments (Sydney Morning Herald, August 1). If there is any substance to the allegations - and thus far no concrete evidence has been produced - a Burmese nuclear weapons program would pose a major foreign policy headache for Beijing, as it would not want to see two nuclear armed pariah states - North Korea and Burma - along its borders. China's increasing frustration with the Burmese government has prompted speculation that Beijing may be hedging its bets by opening a tentative dialogue with the NLD (The Irrawaddy, July 15). Yet, contacts between Chinese diplomats and the Burmese opposition seem to have been initiated by the NLD rather than Beijing, and a dramatic shift in support by China from the SPDC to Ms Suu Kyi's party is highly improbable: the NLD is a spent force in Burmese politics while the SPDC's power remains firmly entrenched. Similarly, talk of Naypyidaw hedging its bets with Beijing by exploring a possible rapprochement with the United States seem overdrawn, though the SPDC might be using the prospect of more amicable ties with Washington to pressurize Beijing into using its influence with the ceasefire groups to accept the junta's demands. The Kokang Incident has laid bare the fault lines in Sino-Burmese relations. Negotiations aimed to avert renewed conflict along the border will test the limits of these relations over the coming months. Notes
Chinese pipelines in Burma to push ahead amid criticism - Antoaneta Bezlova Beijing - Despite fresh international criticism of Beijing's backing for an unpopular regime as the Burmese junta, China sees its alliance with the country's military as a matter of simple economic expediency and is determined to forge ahead with controversial joint dual oil and gas pipelines that will ensure greater energy security for its robust economy. This month sees the first digs on the mammoth infrastructure project that will connect China's northwestern province of Yunnan with Burma's western coast. The proposed gas pipeline will transfer gas from the offshore Shwe gas fields in Arakan state all the way to the capital Kunming of Yunnan province and possibly further inland in China. The twin oil pipeline will be used to transfer oil shipped from the Middle East and Africa bypassing the strategically vulnerable Malacca Strait shipping route. After Burmese activists released a detailed report Monday on the project forecasting it will trigger social unrest and create a public relations fiasco for the Chinese company involved, a state-run newspaper in Beijing rejected the allegations, saying the project was unlikely to be stopped. The Shwe Gas Movement, a group of Burmese exiles in Bangladesh, India and Thailand, also said the junta's recent offensive against ethnic rebels near the pipeline route showed that the regime had no concerns about providing stability for investors, which could translate into great security risks for the project undertakers. "China is not afraid of the threat and criticism," the 'Global Times' - a paper published by the state news agency - quoted an anonymous Chinese official familiar with the issue. "When Myanmar (Burma's official name) was constructing a pipeline to Thailand in the 1990s, Myanmar activists also criticized the government, but the voice is barely heard now." Outside observers though believe the new pipeline project carries greater potential risks than the pipeline conveying gas to Thailand, which they described as a "vehicle for a proliferation of human rights abuses" during its construction and after - such as the widespread use of forced labor and forced evictions. "Such practices, in the likelihood they would re-occur with respect to this latest pipeline, could very well be the spark to set off a broader conflict," said Sean Turnell, a Burma expert at Macquarie University in Australia. "Of course, exacerbating matters is the fact that Chinese energy firms have a less than stellar record themselves when it comes to the ruthlessness with which they pursue energy deals." China's largest oil and gas producer, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), is due to start the construction of the dual pipelines at a total length of nearly 4,000 kilometres in September. The deal is expected to provide the Burmese military, which has ruled the country with an iron grip since a 1962 coup, with at least US$ 29 billion over 30 years. Although Burma ranks 10th in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, its per capita electricity consumption is less than 5 percent of neighboring Thailand and China, as its government exports most of the country's energy resources. The Shwe Gas Movement report, titled 'Corridor of Power', charges that gas revenues in the past have been lavishly spent by the junta on building a new capital and satisfying the extravagant wishes of its ruling generals. "People across Burma are facing severe energy shortages, and this massive energy export will only fuel social unrest," said Wong Aung, spokesperson of the Shwe Gas Movement. "These resources belong to our people and should be used for the energy needs of our country." China - the exclusive buyer of Burma's Shwe offshore gas reserves - sees the pipelines as one of the pieces in a greater energy domino played by Beijing to secure its energy supplies. Burma's pipelines constitute part of CNPC's four-fold strategy to avoid China's dependence on imported oil shipped by sea. Since 2004 Beijing has negotiated the construction of overland pipelines in four different directions, connecting Chinese energy buyers with suppliers in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Burma. "The greatest significance of Burma's pipelines for China lies with the possibility for solving our reliance on the Malacca shipping route," said Long Changwei, expert at China University of Petroleum. "Once it is built, the pipeline will be a reliable alternative for oil flowing in from the Middle East and Africa. Even if there is a crisis in the Malacca Straits, China's exposure to it will be greatly minimized." In addition, the development of a deep sea port on Burma's western coast will provide China with access to the Bay of Bengal - a strategic advantage in its attempts to expand its sphere of influence over the Indian Ocean. Yet there are flip sides to this new energy corridor. The proposed pipelines run through the northeastern Shan State, where as recently as late August, ceasefire ethnic minority armies fought against the regime. The clashes between the Burmese military and the Kokang rebels that sent tens of thousands of refugees fleeing across the Chinese border have raised the possibility that there might be more social strife and armed conflicts if the pipelines project gets underway. CNPC is going to have to be "very careful," said Macquarie University's Turnell. "What was once a simple deal to extract cheap gas for China could blow up into a diplomatic crisis should the pipeline aggravate the incipient conflict between ethnic groups long backed by China, and a regime in Burma that was long thought of as likewise a client of China." In a longer term, China's willingness to help an unpopular regime stay in power could turn out to be short-sighted as it encourages latent anti- Chinese sentiment. Chinese communities that have worked very closely with military regimes in South-east Asia and become immensely rich in the process have been targeted before, as evidenced by violent anti-Chinese riots in Indonesia when the Suharto regime fell in 1998. The Shwe Gas Movement report suggests that China would be in a better position to trade with Burma under a stable government. It also argues that the current military rulers' political roadmap does not aim at bringing peace and political stability to the country. Gas firms 'prop up Burma's junta' Energy giants Total and Chevron have been accused of propping up Burma's military government through their gas projects in the country. Rights group Earth Rights International says this has allowed the government to siphon off $5bn (£3bn) in revenue. The money has reportedly been stashed in banks in Singapore, instead of being used to ease poverty in Burma. The rights group also accuses Total and Chevron of ignoring forced labour, killings and high-level corruption. The two companies deny the allegations and say they play a positive and constructive role in communities, with development and educational programmes. Two Singapore banks named in the report also denied involvement. Government 'lifeline' Earth Rights International has published two reports about the Yadana gas pipeline project, which transports gas overland from offshore fields to Thailand. "Total and Chevron have essentially provided the military regime with its single largest lifeline - that being the revenue generated from the project," said Matthew Smith, the co-ordinator of Earth Rights International's Burma project. He explained that, in research conducted over a two-year period, sources explained how the Burmese generals kept the money out of the country's budget and stored it in bank accounts in Singapore. "Of the $4.83bn generated since 2000, approximately $4.8bn of that is not included in the national budget, and our sources indicate that the military regime is storing its illicit revenue and ill-gotten gains in two foreign banks in Singapore," he said. The report names the two banks, but both issued statements denying involvement in Burma's Yadana project and saying the findings are untrue and without basis. The allegation of human rights abuses are against the Burmese army which provides security for the Total and Chevron operated pipeline. Sanctions? Sean Turnell, an associate professor of economics at Macquarie University in Sydney who follows energy issues in Burma closely, says the way the ruling generals make so much money raises the issue of sanctions. "As we know, countries like the United States and Europe have fairly strict financial sanctions on Burma," he said. "Burma's generals are able to evade these using other countries and I think what could be an interesting step forward would be for the countries that are levying these sanctions to try and pressure some of the other countries to similarly apply sanctions." Chevron and Total are not restricted by economic sanctions imposed on Burma's rulers by the US and the European Union. According to the BBC's Asia correspondent Alistair Leithead, there is a debate over whether sanctions should be strengthened or abandoned as an international approach towards Burma, where the majority of people live in severe poverty. Burmese generals pocket $5bn from Total oil deal - Andrew Buncombe An impoverished nation is deprived as pipeline cash is deposited in foreign bank accounts, report claims The Burmese military junta has earned almost $5bn from a controversial gas pipeline operated by the French oil giant Total and deprived the country of vital income by depositing almost all the money in bank accounts in Singapore, a new report claims. Campaigners say Total has also profited handsomely from the arrangement, with an estimated income of $483m from the project since 2000. Campaigners say that the windfall from the Yadana pipeline, operated by Total and two other partners, has been so huge that it has done much to insulate the country's military rulers from the impact of international sanctions imposed over its human rights abuses. The report from EarthRights International (ERI), published today, argues that this makes Total and their partners a major factor in reinforcing the regime's intransigence. And it claims that while their people suffer some of the worst standards of living in Asia, with miserable state investment in health, education, infrastructure and everything else that affects the lives of ordinary people, the self-perpetuating military elite has grown obscenely wealthy. The pipeline in eastern Burma, which carries gas from rich fields in the Andaman Sea through Burma and into Thailand, has long been controversial. Campaigners have regularly claimed that the authorities have used forced labour in the project, security for which is provided by the Burmese armed forces. Last month, Total rejected claims that forced labour was still being used. Yet the information contained in the report from ERI, a respected Thailand-based group, provides the most detailed insight yet into the vast sums earned by the regime from the pipeline and what happens to that wealth. In the report, Total Impact, which has taken two years to research, the group says the junta, headed by General Than Shwe, manages to avoid including almost all its dollar gas revenues in the national budget by using an artificially low exchange rate. This way it calculates its revenue as just 6 kyat to the dollar when the real rate is closer to 1,000. According to a confidential IMF report obtained by ERI, the natural gas revenue "contributed less than 1 per cent of total budget revenue in 2007/08, but would have contributed about 57 per cent if valued at the market exchange rate". The report says that at these rates, the regime has listed just $29m of its earnings while around $4.8bn is unaccounted for. The report says that "reliable sources" have indicated that the Burmese military regime's portion of the Yadana earnings are located in two leading offshore banks in Singapore - the Overseas Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC), which holds the majority of the revenue, and DBS Group. ERI says that OCBC is Singapore's longest established local bank. "The military elite are hiding billions of dollars of the people's revenue in Singapore while the country needlessly suffers under the lowest social spending in Asia," said ERI's Matthew Smith, the report's main author. "The revenue from this pipeline is the regime's lifeline and a critical leverage point that the international community could use to support the people of Burma." The apparent disregard for its people is a charge that has long been levelled at the Burmese junta, which calls itself the State Peace and Development Council. The group Burma Campaign UK has estimated the regime's spending on health services is the lowest in the world - just 50 pence per person a year - while it spends up to half its budget on the military. Criticism of the regime increased last year in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis when the authorities were accused of a fatally slow and inadequate response to the storm that left 140,000 people dead. Suspicious of the motives of outside organisations, the authorities resisted granting entry visas to scores of aid workers. US and other foreign vessels carrying badly needed emergency supplies were refused permission to dock. Yet while the regime appears happy to let its people suffer - Burma today is the poorest country in the region - senior members of the junta enjoy lives of luxury and excess. In November 2006, a rare insight into the extravagance of the regime was provided by a video of the wedding party of Than Shwe's daughter to an army officer. In the video, posted on the internet, copious amounts of champagne was poured while gifts totalling an estimated $50m were handed to the couple. The wedding presents included cars jewellery and houses. For a regime facing a series of sanctions and widespread pressure to release political prisoners, including the detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, energy deals have become a key bargaining chip in its relations with regional powers such as China and India. The junior international partners in the Yadana pipeline are Chevron, which is said too have earned $437m from the project, and PTTEP of Thailand, which has earned around $394m. Burma's state-controlled Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise is also involved in the operation. Last month The Independent revealed allegations that the Yadana pipeline was still being serviced by forced labour, claims that were denied by Total. Last night the Burmese Embassy in London failed to respond to questions about the report's allegations. A spokeswoman for Total said it was unable to respond comprehensively to the claims made by ERI as it had not seen the document. Asked about its earning in Burma, the spokeswoman said: "We do not usually comment on our earnings per country. Nevertheless our amount in Myanmar represents 0.7 per cent of the group's results." She said that in 2008, the group's income was €13.9bn (around $20bn), suggesting Total annually earns $140m from Burma and its controversial pipeline. A brutal regime: Military rulers who profit Burma has been under the thumb of the military since 1962, and the current junta has ruled since the late 1980s when it brutally crushed a democracy movement, killing up to 6,000 people. At the head of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) sits senior leader Than Shwe, a former postal clerk now aged 76. Initially considered something of a moderate, the general has shown himself to be increasingly authoritarian and hostile to negotiations. Located in the remote jungle capital of Naypidaw since late 2005, the SPDC's other senior members include vice chairman Maung Aye, who has a reputation for ruthlessness and xenophobia. Some reports suggest that he and Than Shwe are involved in a power struggle. Third-in-command in the military structure is Shwe Mann, Joint Chief of Staff and co-ordinator of the special forces. A father of three sons, Shwe Mann became a powerful figure in the regime when he was appointed head of all three services. Then Sein holds the position of prime minister and is considered to be a strong supporter of Than Shwe. In May 2008, as head of the junta's disaster preparedness committee, he became the point man for relief efforts related to Cyclone Nargis. He was notoriously pictured on the front page of a state-run newspaper handing out television sets when people were desperate for food, water and electricity. The oil giant: Total's global reach Total's adventures with the Burmese generals have disturbing parallels with the involvement of another French oil giant, Elf - a company Total swallowed in 2000 - with corrupt military dictators in Africa. It's an inglorious story that ended with one of Europe's biggest corruption trials in 2003 and the conviction of three senior executives at Elf. Soon afterwards the company was absorbed into Total and Elf's African operations were rebranded. A Paris courtroom heard how the oil riches of West and central Africa from Gabon to Cameroon and Congo to Angola had flowed back and forth between Elf and its client leaders - three of whom are still in power while the third, Omar Bongo, died earlier this year. In that case, although not in this, the company's senior management were accused of personally profiting from the deals. Elf's former chairman, Loïk Le Floch-Prigent, received a five-year jail sentence in 2003, as did the former director Alfred Sirven, while the company's "Mr Africa", Andre Tarallo, was jailed for four years and fined €2m (£1.75m). The court heard how huge sums were paid - more than €16m annually to President Bongo - to ensure these leaders stayed loyal to Elf. The defendants maintained that French leaders and parties received similar sums to ensure no one interfered with the arrangement. In Gabon, that meant Elf could act as a "state within a state", while the sweeteners ensured that France's military and espionage operations operated with impunity. Today, Total is investing nearly $5bn (£3bn) in its Africa operations and is doing business with the same stalwarts from the Elf years: Paul Biya in Cameroon, Denis Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazzaville, and José Eduardo dos Santos in Angola. What these countries have in common are sham elections, broken constitutions, rampant corruption and mass poverty. Propaganda and the Burmese Media - Wai Moe Burma's notorious censorship board, called the Press Scrutiny and Registration Division, has allowed a private Rangoon journal to publish translated versions of articles that have appeared in the international media. The Voice Weekly published translated versions of op-ed articles on Burmese politics from The Washington Post and The New York Times, an unusual event in Burma. Burmese readers inside Burma were surprised when they saw the articles from two of America's leading newspapers, several readers told The Irrawaddy. "I was surprised because I know our country has serious censorships problem," said a high school teacher in Rangoon who regularly buys and reads weekly journals. One of the op-ed articles that appeared in The Voice Weekly, originally published in The Washington Post, was written by a Burmese historian, Thant Myint-U. The article "Let's Talk to Burma. China Sure Is." called for more engagement with the military regime in Burma. The translated version appeared in The Voice's Aug. 31 edition. In the Sept. 7 edition, controversial US Sen Jim Webb's commentary, "We Can't Afford to Ignore Myanmar," originally published in The New York Times on August 25, was translated and published in The Voice Weekly. Editors in Rangoon said that Burma's censorship board decided to publish these articles because they favored the lifting of economic sanctions. Other Rangoon-based journals did not publish the articles. The Voice Weekly is edited by Nay Win Maung, who also publishes Living Color magazine. Living Color began publishing under the blessing of the former intelligence spy chief Gen Khin Nyunt. Dr Ye Naing Win, the son of Gen Khin Nyunt, is a close associate of Nay Win Maung. The Washington Post once described Nay Win Maung as "a son of a military officer who was brought up among Burma's military elites, giving him good connections to military insiders." The Voice Weekly regularly publishes articles praising the coming election in 2010 and the regime's "road map" to democracy. It is not known if the publication has been ordered to publish such articles or acts on its own editorial policy. However, some editors and journalists have said that there is a little more freedom in the publication of articles now. Recently, journalists in Rangoon spotted the name of the late poet Tin Moe mentioned in a Rangoon publication. The poet laureate left for exile and died a few years ago in the US. A strong supporter of Aung San Suu Kyi and the democracy movement, he wrote hundreds of poems critical of the regime and since then, his name has not been allowed to appear in local media. "U Tin Moe's name was allowed to be published recently. I think the censorship board permitted his name in media…because he had passed away," said a writer in Rangoon who asked for anonymity. Some journalists said that after Maj Tint Swe took over the censorship board, the local media have a little more breathing space than before. Tint Swe himself writes articles and poems. One of his pen-names is Ye Yint Tint Swe. The censorship board is now under the Ministry of Information. In the past, Ministry of Home Affairs and the military intelligence service controlled the board and monitored publications. In spite of strict draconian rules and censorship regulations, Burma has more than 200 weekly and monthly publications. Some selected journals close to key officials are profitable. Many others struggle financially and are under heavy surveillance. According to the Paris-based media watchdog Reporters without Borders, Burma's freedom of press is at the very bottom in the world, ranking 170 out of 172 countries. A recent example of muzzling the press freedom was that of a Rangoon-based private journal called the Phoenix that was banned in August after it repeatedly ran articles that were ordered to be removed by the censorship board. A woman editor in Rangoon, when asked about press freedom and the regime's favoritism of some publications, said: "There is no change in the freedom of the Burmese media. On all translated articles and reports that we want to publish, the censorship board has the final say and it will remove them if they don't like them. But if these stories and op-ed pieces are in line with regime policy, they will allow them to be published." |
Archives
September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 September 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 October 2011
