Burma Update

News and updates on Burma

22 October 2009

 

[ReadingRoom] News on Burma - 21/10/09

  1. KIO's final demand to Snr-Gen Than Shwe
  2. USDA implements new "home-town" strategy in preparation for 2010 elections
  3. Food shortage haunts over 250 displaced Karen
  4. Myanmar timber still smuggled to China
  5. Japanese win job for compression platform at gas field off Burma
  6. U.S. policy toward Burma
  7. One hundred DKBA soldiers defect to KNU
  8. Junta Secretary 1 visits China
  9. Kachin group sends troops for border guard training
  10. Myanmar blocks ASEAN appeal for Suu Kyi amnesty
  11. Burma drops in press freedom index
  12. Twelve farmers sentenced with hard labour
  13. Civilians warned not to leak tunnel information
  14. Constitution entrenches junta's culture of impunity
  15. In search of democracy - Kachin leader engages junta
  16. Myanmar's Suu Kyi positive about sanctions meetings
  17. Ethnic groups grapple with election strategy
  18. Sanctions undermined by Burma's neighbors
  19. Burma's ploy to escape sanctions
  20. Suu Kyi back in Myanmar's political arena
  21. Burma's exiled Muslims
  22. Burma's new constitution: A death sentence for ethnic diversity
  23. The soldier and the state

KIO's final demand to Snr-Gen Than Shwe
Kachin News Group: Wed 21 Oct 2009

In a major development the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) has said it is willing to surrender its weapons, without the need to transform to Border Guard Force (BGF), if the junta respects and accepts the spirit of the Panglong Agreement.

The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the last remaining ethnic Kachin armed group, which rejected the Burmese junta-proposed conversion to the BGF has communicated this demand to the regime supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe, said KIO sources. Than Shwe is the sole arbitrator in the junta.

The KIO has written to Than Shwe that the KIO will surrender its weapons without the necessity of transforming to BGF, if the junta respects and accepts the spirit of the Panglong Agreement which was jointly signed on February 12, 1947 by Burman leader Gen Aung San and ethnic leaders -  of Kachin, Chin and Shan states for the high hope of genuine multi-ethnic Union of Burma.

According to the Panglong Agreement, the Union of Burma received independence from the British in January 4, 1948. The Panglong Agreement was based on equal rights between the majority Burman and ethnics, who had the right to rule their own states and secession rights from the Union was also authorized to the ethnics.

The KIO's written-demand was sent early this month to Snr-Gen Than Shwe through Maj-Gen Soe Win, commander of the junta's Northern Regional Command (Ma-Pa-Kha) based in the Kachin State's capital Myitkyina, said KIO officials.

KIO sources said the demand to the junta is yet to be publicly announced. But it may be released soon.

The KIO's final demand was submitted to the junta after it rejected the KIO's proposal to transform its military-wing the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to the Kachin Regional Guard Force (KRGF) instead of the Burmese Army-controlled BGF. The KIO also demanded direct participation of its people in the new Kachin State government to be formed after the 2010 elections, said KIO officials.

In another proposal, KIO told the junta that it would like to jointly continue activities of its four departments under the KIO -  the Department of General Administration (civil administration), Education, Health and Rural Reconstruction. However the proposal was rejected by the junta, said KIO officials in Laiza headquarters on the Sino-Burma border in Kachin State.

For the forcible implementation of the "one country, one military policy" of the junta, the KIO and all ethnic ceasefire groups have been given a deadline of 31 October to transform their armed-wings to the BGF.

On the other hand, the Loikang-based KIA's 4th brigade in Northeast Shan State is being threatened by the regime that it would be wiped out from the region if it does not transform to the three smaller militia groups under the Burmese Army or else it would unconditionally have to withdraw to Kachin State.

So far, the KIO has rejected any shift of the 4th brigade and it is waiting for a response from Snr-Gen Than Shwe over its final demand related to the Panglong Agreement, said KIO officials.


USDA implements new "home-town" strategy in preparation for 2010 elections - Asah
Independent Mon News Agency: Wed 21 Oct 2009

Officers of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) who serve the organization in Karen State have been ordered back to their home villages in order to organize on behalf of Burma's military government for the upcoming 2010 elections.

A source in Karen State who works closely with the USDA reported to IMNA that for the last 20 days USDA officers from Karen State have been leaving their offices in the cities of Karen State, and are returning to their native villages in Karen State and Mon State. The orders for this mass exodus reportedly came directly from the Burmese military government.

"If USDA members organize in their home-towns, first of all it's easier to organize the residents of that town, because he knows the town. Also the residents will believe what the USDA member says [if he is from the village]. The USDA is very wise to use this method. The USDA members who are organizing their home towns will be enthusiastic about the government, because the government is giving them authority," he added.

This USDA insider from Karen State claims that USDA members have gone back to their home villages in both Karen State and Mon State, these villages include Hpa-an, Hlaingbwe, Kyainnseikyi in Karen State and Chaung zone township (Belukyun) in Mon State.

According to the resident from Kyone Pe village in Karen State, for the last month and-a-half, the USDA has been holding meetings in every Mon village in Karen state; at these meetings the USDA has reportedly been organizing local youths, and students who have passed the ten standard high-school examination, to support the Burmese military government in the 2010 elections; these villages include Zartapyin, Kyone-Pe, Kayar and Than-le.

"The USDA came to the village, and then wanted students there to both participate in the USDA and serve under them for their new generation. Then, they announced at the meeting that they [the USDA] will be giving 20000 kyat each to each student" she added.

Sources in Myawaddy informed IMNA that the USDA hopes that its efforts at organizing in villages will result in the USDA's receiving additional funding and local power under the new constitution that will be written during the 2010 elections.

A trader from Mayawaddy said "the USDA wants as a place while the government makes the constitution. They are organizing not for the people, just for themselves because the military controls the USDA. If they get a place in the constitution, they will be like the government too. Now they want to show the people the good things that they [the government] did, but they are also asking for taxes from us."


Food shortage haunts over 250 displaced Karen - Nan Htoo San
Karen Information Center: Wed 21 Oct 2009

Acute shortage of food is staring over 250 displaced Karen people from Pha Pun region, northern Karen State in the face, sources in the region said.

The displaced Karen people are from Hkalel Sekho, Haw Thuu Pu and Lel Hkalawt village under Mae Mue sub-tract, in Buu Tho Township. All the villagers fled to the jungle since October 6 because they were threatened by the Kasaw War battalion and Maung Chit and Tin Win from the headquarter-escort battalion of DKBA 666 Brigade.

According to a Pha Pun local, the villagers could not carry sufficient stocks of rice and food leading to food shortage now.

"The DKBA is still active in the area and there are a total of 256 people hiding in the jungle. There are 38 houses in the village. They could not carry sufficient food, while fleeing and are afraid to go back to get it. DKBA soldiers have looted food and rice belonging to the villagers," a local told KIC.

Besides, "DKBA battalions threaten and force villagers to do all kinds of work for them. To make matters dangerous, they lay landmines around the village. So we are afraid to live in the village," he added.

Since the Burmese Army arrived in Pha Pun district in 1997, locals had to relocate from one place to another. Eventually they became homeless leading to perennial food shortage. Besides, there has been increased deployment of soldiers and more military operations in the region. This in turn has led to more and more people being displaced year after year.

In 2009, the Burmese Army and DKBA forces deployed more troops in the area. The soldiers have been killing and committing human rights abuses among locals. It's learnt that there are over 7,000 displaced Karen refugees in Buu Tho and Lu Thaw Township, in Pha Pun district.


Myanmar timber still smuggled to China - Grant Peck
Associated Press: Report: Wed 21 Oct 2009

Bangkok - There has been a sharp decline in timber illegally imported into China from Myanmar, but smugglers are still supplying Chinese companies that export the wood to Europe, America and throughout the world, an environmental watchdog agency said Wednesday.

The British-based group Global Witness, in a report issued Wednesday, called on Chinese and Myanmar authorities to step up efforts to stop illegal logging in northern Myanmar and crack down on illicit cross-border trade.

"Clearly action taken by authorities in China and Burma to combat illegal logging in Kachin state has had a significant positive impact," Global Witness quotes its forest policy expert, Jon Buckrell, saying. "But they should do more to close down the remaining industry, which is almost wholly reliant on the illegal timber supply from Burma."

After an October 2005 report by Global Witness alleged that vast stretches of virgin forest were being destroyed to feed China's growing demand for wood, Beijing sought to curb the trade by closing border crossings to timber trucks from its southern neighbor. The military government of Myanmar - also known as Burma - announced it had suspended timber cutting, transport and shipments to China.

In the 2005 report, Global Witness described the area where the forests were being cut as "very possibly the most bio-diverse, rich, temperate area on earth" - a place home to red pandas, leopards and tigers. It said that China depended largely on imported lumber from Malaysia, Russia, Myanmar, Indonesia and Gabon after it banned the felling of its own old-growth trees in 1998.

China became the biggest foreign investor in Myanmar this past year, and is the closest ally of its military regime, which is shunned by the West because of its poor human rights record and failure to hand over power to a democratically elected government.

The new report, "A Disharmonious Trade," said trade data showed that imports of logs and sawed wood from Myanmar to China fell by more than 70 percent between 2005 and 2008, confirming a trend found by the group's own field investigations.

But smugglers use "bribery, false papers, transportation at night and avoiding checkpoints" to get around the restrictions on sending the wood to China, the report said.

China's Foreign Ministry and Myanmar's Forestry Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Global Witness said its researchers had visited flooring companies on China's east coast to gauge the availability of timber from Myanmar, and found widespread use of teak from Myanmar, along with other high value species such as black walnut.

Global Witness said its investigators were told by 13 of the 14 firms visited that it was still possible for them to obtain timber from Myanmar despite the import restrictions, and that several admitted that their supplies were obtained through smuggling.

The report said the Chinese companies export worldwide, including to the United States and Europe. It said some U.S. based companies advertise wood flooring from Myanmar, although under a U.S. law amended by Congress last year, the Lacey Act, it is illegal to import illegally obtained plants and their products, including timber and wood products.


Japanese win job for compression platform at gas field off Burma - Russell Searancke
Upstream Online (USA): Wed 21 Oct 2009

Japanese engineering and construction company Nippon Steel Corporation has come from behind to score a significant victory for the contract to build a big compression platform for the Yetagun wet gas field off Burma.

The 6150-tonne topsides for the platform will be built by subsidiary company Thai Nippon Steel in Thailand, while the 4650-tonne steel jacket will be fabricated by Nippon Steel's Indonesian subsidiary on Batam Island, said sources.

Furthermore, a 100-metre bridge weighing 760 tonnes will connect the compression platform to the Yetagun-B facility.

The topsides will be divided into three modules, while the jacket will be more than 100 metres in length to suit the water depths at the field location.

The winning contract also includes host tie-in and modification work for the existing production facilities at Yetagun.

Following the submission of commercial bids for the job, Indian company Larsen & Toubro had emerged with the lowest price, but the other five bidders including Nippon Steel were close behind and felt they still had a chance throughout the clarifications stage.

The other bidders were South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries, Singapore's SMOE, plus Malaysians Sime Darby and Kencana.

Sources said Nippon Steel's competitive advantage might have come from its good reputation with Petronas and former operator of the Yetagun field Premier Oil, and at the Total-operated Yadana field that sits nearby.

Nippon Steel has built some of the existing offshore facilities for both developments, and sources said the company has long been assisting the Yetagun and Yadana owners with hook-up and maintenance services.

The compression platform is needed for the fourth development phase of Yetagun, which is operated by Malaysian national oil company Petronas.

The aim of phase four is to maintain high production rates, and the platform is due to be installed in 2012.

The invitation to bid for the phase four transport and installation package has not yet been issued, said sources.

Yetagun production in 2009 is expected to average 400 million cubic feet per day of gas and 10,220 barrels per day of condensate, said co-venturer PTTEP.


U.S. policy toward Burma - Kurt M. Campbell
U.S. Department of State: Wed 21 Oct 2009

Statement before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs

Washington, DC - Mr. Chairman, Ms. Ros-Lehtinen, and Members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me here today to testify about U.S. policy toward Burma and a possible new direction for U.S.-Burma relations.

I appreciate this opportunity to discuss the overarching assessments that helped shape our review. The Administration launched a review of our Burma policy seven months ago, recognizing that political and humanitarian conditions in Burma were deplorable. Neither sanctions nor engagement, implemented alone, have succeeded in improving those conditions and moving Burma forward on a path to democratic reform.

Moreover, it was clear to us that the problems Burma presents, not only to its people, but to its neighbors, the wider region and the world at large, demand that we review and reconsider our approach. In addition to taking a hard look at the current situation inside Burma, we also focused on emerging questions and concerns regarding Burma's relationship with North Korea, particularly in light of the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1874. This resolution prohibits member states from engaging in trade with North Korea in virtually all conventional weapons as well as in sensitive technologies, including those related to ballistic missiles and nuclear and other WMD programs.

Our policy review also was informed by the fact that, for the first time in recent memory, the Burmese leadership has shown an active interest in engaging with the United States. But, let me be clear: we have decided to engage with Burma because we believe it is in our interest to do so.

We have consulted widely throughout the review process with Congress, other governments, and key stakeholders such as non-governmental organizations, business leaders, academics, and representatives of international organizations. We also have consulted with the National League for Democracy and other democratic activists inside Burma.

The conclusions of our policy review, announced last month, reaffirmed our fundamental interests in Burma: we support a unified, peaceful, prosperous, and democratic Burma. While our goals in Burma remain the same as before, the policy review confirmed that we need additional tools to augment those that we have been using in pursuit of our objectives. A policy of pragmatic engagement with the Burmese authorities holds the best hope for advancing our goals. A central element of this approach is a direct, senior-level dialogue with representatives of the Burmese leadership. We hope a dialogue with the Burmese regime will lay out a path forward towards change in Burma and a better, more productive bilateral relationship.

Through a direct dialogue, we will be able to test the intentions of the Burmese leadership and the sincerity of their expressed interest in a more positive relationship with the United States. The way forward will be clearly tied to concrete actions on the part of the Burmese leadership addressing our core concerns, particularly in the areas of democracy and human rights.

We will also discuss our proliferation concerns and Burma's close military relationship with North Korea. Burma has said it is committed to comply fully with UN Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the nature and extent of Burma's ties with North Korea. Full and transparent implementation of these resolutions is critical to global peace and security, and we will be looking to the Burmese authorities to deliver on their commitments.

We expect engagement with Burma to be a long, slow, and step-by-step process. We will not judge the success of our efforts at pragmatic engagement by the results of a handful of meetings. Engagement for its own sake is obviously not a goal for U.S. policy, but we recognize that achieving meaningful change in Burma will take time.

We will work to ensure that the Burmese leaders have an absolutely clear understanding of our goals for this dialogue and the core issues on our agenda. A fundamentally different U.S.-Burma relationship will require real progress on democracy and human rights. We will continue to press for the unconditional release of Aung San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners; an end to conflicts with ethnic minority groups; accountability of those responsible for human rights violations; and the initiation of a genuine dialogue among the Burmese government, the democratic opposition, and the ethnic minorities on a shared vision for the way forward in Burma. This last issue is critical, since only the Burmese people themselves can determine the future of their country. Our intent is to use our dialogue with the Burmese authorities to facilitate that process. Only if the government of Burma makes progress toward these goals will it be possible to improve our bilateral relationship in a step-by-step process.

For more, visit: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2009/10/130769.htm


One hundred DKBA soldiers defect to KNU - Saw Yan Naing
Irrawaddy: Tue 20 Oct 2009

More than 100 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) soldiers have defected to the Karen National Union (KNU) since June, following fighting and DKBA forced recruitment, according to Karen sources.

About a dozen DKBA defectors returned to areas controlled by KNU Brigade 6 and Brigade 7 last week, according to KNU and DKBA sources on the border.

Some villagers in DKBA-controlled areas have also fled to KNU-controlled areas to avoid forced recruitment by the DKBA, sources said.

Hsa Paw, a member of DKBA Battalion 5, said he was among a group of soldiers who defected to the KNU because they do not want to fight against fellow Karen in the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA).

The DKBA, now estimated to have some 6,000 troops, began a recruitment campaign in June to increase the army to 9,000, prior to serving as a border guard force under the military government.

Despite the agreement by DKBA leaders to transform into a border guard force, some DKBA battalions have not yet agreed with the order, said Hsa Paw.

He said many DKBA soldiers are unhappy about their leaders' decision to become a border guard force.

The DKBA is the largest ethnic cease-fire group to accept the regime's order to become a border guard force. It signed a cease-fire agreement with the government in 1995.

The DKBA's political wing, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Organization (DKBO), has not yet said if it will participate in the 2010 elections.

"Once the DKBA split and defected to the Burmese regime, Khin Nyunt [a former prime minister] told them not to become involved in politics. He said politics is complicated," said a DKBA businessman. He said he believed the DKBA would focus on social development programs and business, while serving as a border guard force.

"They [DKBA soldiers] will not all defect to the KNU at the same time," he said. "But there are many potential defectors."

Meanwhile, the DKBA has increased its troops in Papun District where KNLA Brigade 5 is based. Skirmishes have occurred almost daily, according to Karen relief groups.

The Karen Office of Relief and Development (KORD) estimated that some 2,000 Karen villagers from six villages in Papun District have relocated to a makeshift jungle camp known as Thapepan.

The DKBA has been recruiting at the camp, sources said, and it does not allow villagers to leave the camp area in an attempt to sever their connection with the KNU.

Many villagers want to escape from the camp, said Maw Law, a KORD relief worker.


Junta Secretary 1 visits China - Wai Moe
Irrawaddy: Tue 20 Oct 2009

One of the Burmese military government's leading generals, Secretary 1 Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, flew to Nanning in southern China on Monday, the first official visit between the two countries since the Kokang conflict in August sent some 37,000 refugees flooding into Yunnan Province.

Burma's state-run daily, The New Light of Myanmar, reported on Tuesday that Tin Aung Myint Oo, who is quartermaster general of the Burmese armed forces, and his delegation were seen off at Naypyidaw Airport by junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe, his No 2 Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye and No 3 Gen Shwe Mann.

Burma's Secretary 1 Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo (left) meets Chinese Vice-Premier Li Keqiang in Nanning, southern China, on Oct. 19, 2009. (PHOTO: Xinhua News Agency)

China's state-run press reported that Beijing had vowed to work with Burma to ensure stability on the Sino-Burmese border.

"China and Myanmar should make efforts together to strengthen exchanges and cooperation, as well as safeguard stability on the border areas for the sake of the fundamental interests of the two peoples," China's Vice-Premier Li Keqiang told Tin Aung Myint Oo, according to a report in the Xinhua news agency on Tuesday.

Tin Aung Myint Oo seems to be handling the regime's relations mission with China. On September 28, he represented the junta by attending a ceremony in Rangoon marking the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a former communist rebel who observes Sino-Burmese affairs from China's Yunnan Province, said Tin Aung Myint Oo's trip would appear to be a regular diplomatic trip rather than a military one, judging by the fact that civilian ministers rather than military officers traveled with him on the delegation.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Tuesday, Aung Kyaw Zaw said that Beijing would have higher expectations over the Burmese army's treatment of Kokang and Chinese civilians because of the high-level nature of Burma's delegation.

According to Aung Kyaw Zaw, tensions remain high between the Burmese army and the ethnic cease-fire groups along with the border as Burmese light infantry battalions maintain their positions.

Min Zin, a freelance Burmese journalist who focuses on Sino-Burmese relations at the Center for Southeast Asia Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, said that the Burmese junta needs to offer a guarantee to China that the Kokang conflict was an exception and that it does not intend to wage all-out war against the ethnic groups along China's border.

"Otherwise, they will be in big trouble with China," he said. "Also, after [US Senator Jim] Webb's visit, China is losing its cool with the junta."

Webb visited Burma in mid-August and met with Than Shwe and other key ministers in Naypyidaw. The US senator reportedly talked with Than Shwe about China's influence in Burma. About a week after Webb's visit, the junta captured the Kokang capital of Laogai, effectively ending a 20 year-long ceasefire with the ethnic Chinese militia.

Also on the delegation on Monday was hardliner Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan, the minister of information, who went to Beijing to attend a radio and TV workshop for developing countries on October 14-17, according to The New Light of Myanmar.

It also reported that the chief of the junta's Spoke Authoritative Team, Kyaw Hsan, met with China's propaganda minister Liu Yunshan.


Kachin group sends troops for border guard training - Aye Nai and Htet Aung Kyaw
Democratic Voice of Burma: Tue 20 Oct 2009

A Kachin ceasefire group in northern Burma has sent a number of cadets to train with the Burmese army in lieu of becoming a border guard force, a former spokesperson said.

The National Democratic Army-Kachin (NDAK) in June accepted a government proposal to transform into a border militia, one of the first ceasefire groups to do so.

A former NDAK spokesperson, Nguyen Tawnghawng, said that 10 cadets had been sent to the Kachin state capital, Myitkyina, to receive officer training at a Burmese army base.

He said the NDAK is preparing to set up three battalions for its border guard force and aims to initiate the transformation before the end of this year.

Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has been urging ceasefire groups to transform in border guards and re-enter what it calls the "legal fold" prior to the elections next year.

The government hopes this will consolidate support for it from the country's numerous ceasefire groups, many of whom hold tenuous truces with the regime.

Many of the larger groups have however rejected the proposal, claiming the transformation will significantly weaken them and bring them under direct control of the government.

Burma's biggest ceasefire group, the 30,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA) yesterday reiterated its stance that it would only negotiate with a civilian government elected next year.

A UWSA official told DVB that members of the group met with government representatives in the Pangshang region of Shan state last week.

"It's been about five or six days since we told [the government] that, but no response has been made so far," he said, adding that government troops in the Wa region had been "restless" since the group first made clear its stance.

The region was the scene of fierce fighting earlier this year between Burmese troops and an ethnic Kokang armed group, rumoured to have been supported by the UWSA.


Myanmar blocks ASEAN appeal for Suu Kyi amnesty
Agence France Presse: Tue 20 Oct 2009

Singapore - Myanmar has scuttled a plan by fellow ASEAN members to issue a public appeal seeking amnesty for detained pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, a diplomatic source said Tuesday.

"They rejected it two months ago. They rejected the idea," the Southeast Asian diplomat told AFP just days before the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders hold their annual summit in Thailand this weekend.

The source, who asked not to be named, said that while Suu Kyi's plight could not be put on the formal ASEAN agenda, Myanmar could still be discussed during a closed-door "retreat" in which some of the leaders could call for her release.

They could also ask that her party be allowed to contest elections planned for next year, the diplomat added.

The diplomat said he understood that a number of other countries backed Myanmar's position that a public appeal for amnesty for Suu Kyi would amount to interference in its domestic affairs.

Myanmar had vetoed previous efforts to use ASEAN meetings to openly discuss Suu Kyi's fate.

ASEAN senior officials who met in Jakarta in August had agreed to work on an amnesty call for the Nobel Peace laureate convicted in August for allowing an American man stay in her lakeside home after he swam uninvited to the compound.

The 64-year-old Suu Kyi, who has spent around 14 of the past 20 years in detention, got an extra 18 months' house arrest, which provoked international outrage.

Last month, Myanmar judges rejected Suu Kyi's appeal against the sentence.

Suu Kyi led her National League for Democracy to a landslide victory in elections in 1990, but the junta has refused to recognise the result.

Myanmar's military rulers are planning elections next year as part of promised democratic reforms, but critics have demanded that Suu Kyi and her party should be allowed to participate.

As well as Myanmar, ASEAN also groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.


Burma drops in press freedom index - Francis Wade
Democratic Voice of Burma: Tue 20 Oct 2009

The sentencing of Burmese journalists and bloggers in September last year has pushed the country another spot lower in an annual press freedom index.

Burma has ranked 171 out of 175 countries in the World Press Freedom Index 2009, released today by Paris-based media watchdog, Reporters Sans Frontiers (RSF).

Vincent Brossel, from the RSF Asia desk, told DVB today that there had been no evolution in Burma's media environment over the past year, with journalists still facing similar levels of intimidation, imprisonment and censorship.

"It's quite worrying because we are just one year before the elections and there is no positive improvement," he said. "Apart from the voting system, getting access to media so that people can campaign is the most important thing for us."

He said however that reports published yesterday by DVB that revealed that several interviews with the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party had been printed in weekly journals inside Burma was "an intriguing development".

Another brief interlude in the restrictions came earlier this year when foreign journalists, along with domestic reporters, were allowed inside the Rangoon prison courtroom where opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was standing trial.

Brossel said however that the coverage inside Burma was ineffective because reporters "were mainly giving the government version" of proceedings.

Burma is subject to draconian censorship regulations, and all printed material is required to pass through the government's Censorship Board before publication.

The public airing of opposition views is a rare occurrence, and can often lead to harassment of both the publisher and the interviewee.

The news followed shortly after Suu Kyi was granted a rare meeting with foreign diplomats, perhaps signaling a shift in policy from a notoriously intransigent government.

The ruling junta appears to have warmed to the idea of dialogue between itself and opposition groups, as well as what could turn out to be unprecedented engagement between itself and the United States following a recent review of US policy to Burma.

Brossel said that a signal of positive change from US engagement would be for the junta to issue foreign journalists with visas "so they don't have to go in like tourists, which is the only way they can now work in Burma".

The four countries that ranked below Burma in the idex were Iran, Turkmenistan, North Korea and Eritrea.


Twelve farmers sentenced with hard labour - Htet Aung Kyaw
Democratic Voice of Burma: Mon 19 Oct 2009

Twelve farmers in central Burma have been sentenced to up to five years imprisonment with hard labour on trespassing charges after returning to work on land confiscated by the government.

The case is being closely monitored by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in Rangoon, according to the group's country liaison officer, Steve Marshall.

The farmers, from Aunglan in Magwe division, won a dispute over the 2000 acres of confiscated land following a meeting between the ILO and government officials in March this year. The land had been taken after the farmers refused to bow to government pressure to grow sugarcane for army-run Aunglan township's sugar factory.

Then in July they were sued by the sugar factory and sentenced last week on charges of trespassing and damage to property.

The sentences ranged from nine months to four years and nine months, all with hard labour, according the sister of one of the farmers.

Aye Aye Win, the wife of one of the farmers sentenced last week, received the harshest sentence after being "accused of cursing the sugar factory personals after they sued her", the sister said.

Steve Marshall said that the ILO, a United Nations body with a mandate to work on complaints over land confiscation and forced labour in Burma, is "seriously concerned" about the sentencing.

"We have raised [it] as a serious issue with the government and have requested them to affect the immediate release of the imprisoned persons," he said.

The charges, brought by local government officials in Magwe division, appeared to contradict the agreement reached in March between the ILO and central government, he said.

He added that it was "not a political issue at all. It involves farmers, the use of forced labour, the loss of the use of land, and the resolution of that problem. It is about the application of Myanmar [Burma] law".

According to the ILO, around 220 complaints of forced labour in Burma had been received. Marshall said that the vast majority of these had been resolved "without any harassment or any problems for the complainants".

In some cases, however, he said that there were "serious problems" in terms of government retribution against complainants.


Civilians warned not to leak tunnel information - Aye Nai
Democratic Voice of Burma: Mon 19 Oct 2009

Locals in a town in central Burma say they have been warned by government troops not to leak news about a tunnel being built by the military or their villages will be razed.

The 19-mile long tunnel is being built between the villages of Ywarmon and Phatthantaung in Magwe division, according to a local in the nearby town of Natmauk.

"Now even the village authorities are too scared to talk about it," he said. "Security is really tight in the area and taking photos is also prohibited."

Another local in Magwe division said that four years ago the army contacted his son, a graduate of the Government Technological College, and persuaded him to work in a weapons factory being built underground in Ngaphe town near to Magwe city.

The man said that an official from the army had offered his son 35,000 kyat ($US35) per month to work on the project. "The man said he would not be able to visit home after started working in the tunnel," he said.

In June DVB released a series of reports compiled from leaked government documents that outlined the junta's plans to develop a network of tunnels underneath Burma that would accommodate troop battalions and armoury in the event of an invasion.

Some 800 tunnels are thought to be under construction, with sections of the project dating back as far as 1996.

The project has been clouded in secrecy, but appears to be part of a longer-term strategy to bolster Burma's defence capabilities.

The junta is using North Korean advisors for its tunnel system, after a senior government delegation visited Pyongyang in November 2008 and took a tour round military tunnels there.

The majority of tunneling and construction equipment for the project has been bought from North Korea in a series of deals over the last three years which total at least $US9 billion, according to two purchase orders received by DVB.

The Bangladesh-based Narinjara news agency last week quoted a military source as saying that a tunnel had been dug into a mountain in Burma's western Arakan state to store fighter jets. The tunnel is thought to be connected to a nearby air base in Ann township.

Arakan state lies alongside Burma's border with Bangladesh, which in recent weeks has become the site of a military build-up from both sides following a dispute over ownership of gas blocks in the Bay of Bengal.


Constitution entrenches junta's culture of impunity: Report
Mizzima News: Mon 19 Oct 2009

New Delhi - The international community should not support the Burmese military junta's 2010 elections because it will entrench military rule and a culture of impunity, the International Centre for Transitional Justice said in a new report.

The ICTJ, in its report titled "Impunity Prolonged", said the junta over the past two decades has been deliberately into human rights violations as a tool to suppress its people and all oppositions and has designed a constitution that will sanction impunity for their actions.

Amidst numerous other violations documented by various human rights organizations, the report mainly identified sexual violation, forced labour and use and recruitment of child soldiers, as Burma has ratified to international conventions on the three categories.

Members of the Burmese military "armed with guns and the knowledge that they are not likely to be held accountable for their abuses, often resort to inhumane behaviour," the report said.

Rape is tolerated and is seen not as a crime but rather as a necessary strategy to punish individuals, families, and communities that may oppose the government, the report said.

"This illusion validates and encourages more violations," the report added.

It furthers that Burmese civilians are often snatched from their homes and forced to provide free labour to support the junta's endeavours against opposition forces. And with the high rates of attrition in the armed forces, the expanding size of the army, the numbers of volunteers decreasing, and deserters increasing, recruiters have turned to children to meet their quota.

"While all of these activities are illegal under Burmese and international law, they persist because of the country's culture of impunity," said the report adding that the culture of impunity is the essence of the junta's new constitution.

The junta's 2008 constitution gives amnesty to the ruling regime for any crimes they have committed it also allows the military to dominate the government and to protect their interest.

Besides, the constitution reserves 25 per cent of seats for the military in Parliament and also allows the military to override the Parliament and declare a state of emergency anytime it deems right, in the name of national security.

"The Burmese continue to be forced to live with mass violations, impunity that encourages more crime, a constitution that entrenches the military's power and a blanket of terror over political opposition," the report said.

The report said any strategic approach should be on catalyzing change, preparing for future accountability, preserving and organizing evidence, and effectively using available international mechanisms.

And in doing so, the report urged the international community to strengthen Burmese activists both inside and at the border to be able to effectively document the human rights violations and preserve and organise evidences.


In search of democracy - Kachin leader engages junta
Bangkok Post: Mon 19 Oct 2009

Freelance journalist Myint Shwe recently met Manam Tu Ja in Laiza on the Chinese border, where they discussed possible implications of the volatile situation in Burma and his brand-new Kachin State Progressive Party.

Recently, the New Light of Myanmar, the mouthpiece of the Burmese junta, carried an article extolling former Kachin rebel leader Manam Tu Ja's decision to set up a political party to contest the general election in 2010. Tu Ja had taken part in a national constitutional drafting convention organised by the junta from 2004-07 as a representative of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO).

Despite the reservations by the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, many believe that the 2010 election is the only solution to the country's problems. In Rangoon, upstart groups are springing up each day in preparation for the election, the date of which has yet to be announced.

The KIO has approved Tu Ja's decision and officially relieved him of leadership responsibilities. But on the other hand, the KIO and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) - the two most powerful armed ethnic organisations, which signed ceasefire agreements with the Burmese junta 20 years ago - are resisting the government's plan to transform them into state administered Border Guard Forces (BGF).

The KIO, with a fighting force of 4,000, and the UWSA, with 20,000 soldiers, are currently negotiating with the junta. Both sides are emphasising the importance of peace, and the use of political means to find a solution. The junta vanquished the Kokang, a much smaller armed group along the border with China, this past summer. A newly installed Kokang leadership has accepted the BGF proposal.

Some Burma observers think the junta might delay the elections. Pessimists even foresee a resumption of civil war in the north and in the east of the country.

There was news recently that the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) would form an interim government, probably in October, to handle the upcoming election. What is your opinion on this?

Yes, we heard about it. If it is true, it is for the good. I mean it must have been made with good intentions. Given the current situation, it might be better to let an interim government carry on the remaining steps of the (seven-step) road map (for democracy). It is better suited to convene the election and to hand state power over to the newly elected government.

How will the SPDC proceed with its plan to transform the KIO and the UWSA into Border Guard Forces?

In principle, the transformation of indigenous armed organisations is necessary in order to harmonise with the country's political transition, I mean toward a democratic state. However, in doing so, we may need to allow enough time, great patience, and unlimited consultation with the indigenous people.

Like many others, I can sense that both the SPDC and the ceasefire groups prefer negotiation to a resumption of violence; both sides do not want to lose peace that has been achieved so far. Therefore, until they get a good solution, more patience is needed to work toward it. I firmly believe this hurdle will be overcome and the transformation will take place eventually and peacefully.

There are some pessimistic views in the political circles in Rangoon regarding this issue. Some even forecast that the election might be postponed until this problem is solved. If you think the issue will be solved peacefully, can it happen before the election?

I cannot tell with certainty. However, it seems to me that this issue will be solved before the election. I know some (armed) organisations are saying that this issue should be relegated to the next government; well I think it is up to the (current) government. If the government decides to leave the issue to the post-election period, it can do so, but I think the government side appears to have determined to finish it first.

On their side, the peace groups wish that their status would be left as it is now and discussed in the coming Union Assembly, or be solved by the new government. But I think this is less likely.

According to Burmese state-owned media, you are one of the few people who have been viewed favourably by the government. If the government asks you to help negotiate with the KIO on the BGF plan, would you consider it?

I do not think the government would ask me to intervene in any manner. The government has been fully capable of solving the problems it has faced so far. Besides, the government's style of work is dealing directly with the parties concerned, allowing only those who are involved. I am totally out of it.

You have decided to form the Kachin State Progressive Party (KSPP). You are still a leader of Kachins and an ex-KIO leader. How much will the current transformation issue affect your efforts and those of the KSPP?

We have determined to play a new game, urban politics. As you know, I clearly have burned the bridge behind me. Therefore, I will say the KSPP has nothing do to do with the KIO, regardless of whether it can negotiate its stand with the government, or not.

Have you relinquished your KIO membership?

Yes, I have formally resigned both from the KIO leadership and from the organisation. I personally do not have a single stake left with the KIO. On the other hand, I have cooperated with the government's road map since the National Convention and I am still cooperating with it through my plan to form a political party and to stand in the coming election.

In this regard, I want to emphasise that the KSPP will be a political party based entirely on the urban population (in Kachin state); it will play urban politics only. The KSPP will be marching along with the flow of the democratic age. We are now clearly and totally separated from the KIO. It does not necessarily mean I do not like the old ways of politics anymore. I just choose the new way, the democratic, civilian way, and the way of urban politics. So, whatever is happening on the other side will not be related to us in any way.

What is the story behind the formation of the KSPP?

Last year the people in Kachin State called a mass meeting and formed a large group called Kachin State Transitional Period Leading Body. This body consisted of representatives from all walks of life, such as religious leaders, businessmen, scholars and people from political organisations like the KIO and other smaller ones such as the New Democratic Army Kachin (NDAK).

The KIO consulted with the transitional body regarding the coming election. Through the body the Kachin people expressed the belief that the election approach to political transition as an option should not be rejected entirely, since it is inevitable. So it was recommended that a political party be formed to contest the election.

The leading body of the KSPP was formed, with 53 representatives drawn from that Transitional Period Leading Body.

There were 10 representatives from the KIO, of which I was one. Five of these have returned to the KIO and the remaining five, including me, are now with the KSPP.

So we are totally independent of the KIO, as I told you earlier.

Some who are from smaller political organisations other than the KIO have also become civilian politicians like me, and no longer members of any armed group. That is why I said we are totally independent of any armed organisation. We are now a political party in the true sense of the word, and based on the civilian Kachin population.

Does the KSPP intend to represent all the Kachin State?

Yes, we felt that there should be only one local political party for the whole of the Kachin state, though we will not oppose others in Kachin state that wish to have their own parties. But we will try to make an alliance and merge with them.

We expect that bigger national parties like the National Unity Party (ex-Burma Socialist Program Party) and the National League for Democracy (NLD), might decide to run in the election in Kachin State, and other government-supported proxy parties and candidates as well. Our party, as a local party, intends to embrace all peoples and groups, united in the state. I want to say that the KSPP is a geographically instituted political party, or a state-based party, not based on religion or ethnicity, and focused on the all-round progress of the Kachin state.

In this regard, I want to say that the KSPP is going to be a constructive party in all aspects, with positive attitudes.

Our purpose in founding a political party is not to oppose whatever the government does or is going to do. We will cooperate with anyone when we believe their ideas are beneficial to the Kachin state, as well as the union as a whole. We will open the doors of our party widely. There will be room for everyone and leadership opportunity for anyone who demonstrates calibre.

What will be the first activity of the KSPP once you have officially launched the party?

We have yet to set up our organisational structure systematically and launch officially. When the government allows parties for registration we will do so, and we will launch our organisational work with the Kachin public within the framework the government allows.

Will the KSPP's party work be limited to within the state?

Yes, it will be within the Kachin State.

Do you have anything more to say?

The constitution and the elections are the two important things we need to have in order to make a smooth and successful turning point in this era of our country's history. This is the only door which is open for us at this moment.

This is why we are starting now and starting where we can start practically. It is given by circumstances, not choice. But I believe, if we work on steadily along this line, one day - I say one day - we will be at the destination all of us have envisioned.

I know there are criticisms of the new constitution. But even if the constitution is to be revised or amended in certain aspects, the only ones who can do so are the elected persons who have come through the 2010 election, and the only venue is the Union Assembly.

There is no way to bypass the election and the Union Assembly created by it. This should be clear.

* Myint Shwe is a Canada-based long time Burma observer and freelance journalist.


Myanmar's Suu Kyi positive about sanctions meetings: lawyer
Agence France Presse: Fri 16 Oct 2009

Yangon - Myanmar's detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has said her recent meetings about sanctions with diplomats and a junta minister were positive, her lawyer told AFP Friday.

She held a rare meeting last Friday with top Western diplomats to discuss sanctions imposed on the military-ruled nation, having earlier in the week met twice with Aung Kyi, the official liaison between herself and the junta.

The pair had not met since January 2008.

The meetings followed a letter she wrote to junta chief Than Shwe, which offered suggestions on getting sanctions lifted, marking an easing of her stance after years of advocating punitive measures against the ruling generals.

"Daw Suu sees the meetings as positive and also she expects the meeting process to be effective," her lawyer Nyan Win said, after meeting with the opposition leader for an hour on Friday. "Daw" is a term of respect in Myanmar.

The Nobel Peace Laureate wants to meet with diplomats again to get more facts and figures about sanctions, Nyan Win said, adding that they would not be releasing any more details of the talks for the moment.

On October 2, Suu Kyi's appeal against her extended house arrest was rejected by judges, who upheld her August conviction over an incident in which an American man swam uninvited to her lakeside house.

The guilty verdict for the frail 64-year-old, who has spent around 14 of the past 20 years in detention, earned her an extra 18 months' house arrest and provoked international outrage.

Nyan Win said they would now prepare a revision of the appeal to submit to the Supreme Court, which they also discussed with Suu Kyi Friday.

The junta refused to let Suu Kyi take power after the country's last elections in 1990, which her National League for Democracy (NLD) party won by a landslide, leading Western countries to impose sanctions.

Her extended house arrest keeps her off the scene for elections promised by the regime next year, adding to criticism that the polls are a sham designed to legitimise the military regime's grip on power.

The US recently unveiled a major policy shift to re-engage the junta but warned against lifting sanctions until progress is made towards democracy.


Ethnic groups grapple with election strategy - Mungpi
Mizzima News: Fri 16 Oct 2009

New Delhi - Two exiled ethnic political organizations have expressed their opposition against the Burmese military junta's planned 2010 election, saying it is aimed to rubber stamp the junta's rule and does not guarantee the rights of ethnics.

Hkanhpa Sadan, Joint Secretary of the Kachin National Organisation (KNO) told Mizzima that his organization is not encouraging ethnic groups and others to support the junta's 2010 elections as it will not provide any opportunity for change.

"It is a wrong conception to believe that this election can present even a slight opening of opportunity for change," Hkanhpa Sadan elaborated.

Similarly, the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), in an official statement on Monday, rejected the junta's 2010 election, saying the new government elected out of the 2010 election would not act in the interests of the people, instead serving to unquestioningly carry out the junta's will.

"The rights of the ethnic people for self-determination and protection of our customs and culture will be further endangered by this so-called Parliament," the KNPP said.

The London-based KNO also urged the ethnic Kachin's main group, Kachin Independence Organisations (KIO), to uphold its oath to secure the Kachin peoples' rights, equality and self-determination.

The KIO, along with its armed wing the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), in 1962 took a historic oath at a meeting in Bhamo in northern Burma, bordering China, committing to fight until Kachins gain their inherent rights.

Hkanhpa Sadan said as the KIA took the oath, "We urged them to remain committed and stop meeting the junta's representatives under the banner of negotiations for the transformation of the KIA into Border Guard Force."

Burma's military rulers have pressured ethnic ceasefire armed groups to transform their armies into a junta administered Border Guard Force, setting a deadline of this October for compliance.

The KIO, along with several armed groups such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA), has thus far rejected the junta's proposal, but continues to meet Burma Army commanders, including Lt-Gen Ye Myint, Chief of Military Affairs Security, and Northern Command commander Maj-Gen Soe Win.

"Altogether there have been 10 meetings between the KIO and the junta on this issue, and we want the KIO to remain firm in a decision to stop the meetings," Hkanhpa Sadan emphasized.

The KIO's spokesperson and Secretary, Dr. Laja, was not immediately available for comment.

The KNO and KNPP are both members of the Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC), an umbrella organization representing ethnic nationalities in Burma.

In late September, a letter sent by the ENC's secretariat to US Senator James Webb, a strong supporter of engagement with the Burmese regime, caused confusion among Burmese opposition and ethnic groups, as the letter said the ENC supports ethnic minorities in their participation in the 2010 elections, in order that ethnics have a voice in Burmese politics and play a role in the future governance of the state.

The letter said while the ENC "in principle" does not accept the junta's 2008 constitution and the upcoming 2010 election, ethnic nationalities are nevertheless left with no choice that they will have to participate.

The letter also urged Webb not to condemn the election before it takes place but to support potential ethnic candidates and prepare them by educating them on elections and how to run for office.

The letter, however, was rejected by the Chairman of the ENC, who argued he had no knowledge of the letter and that it thus does not represent the ENC's official policy.

Hkanhpa Sadan added that despite the letter, the KNO is committed to the ENC and is abiding by the principles that it has adopted in their last conference, which includes not accepting the 2010 election.

"The issue of the letter will be discussed in a future meeting, but I must say it does not reflect the ENC's policy," Hkanhpa Sadan stated.

Similarly, the KNPP, in its statement, said as a representative of the Karenni people it is fully committed to the ENC and "will comply with the ENC's principles regarding the 2010 election, as formulated during its last executive committee held on June 8 - 12, 2009."


Sanctions undermined by Burma's neighbors: US - William Boot
Irrawaddy: Thu 15 Oct 2009

Bangkok - As Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi reviews Western sanctions against her country and a debate opens up about their affect on the military regime, a Washington agency has admitted that efforts to keep Burmese gems out of the US are failing.

Gemstones such as jade and rubies are among the core targets of economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union against the military junta running Burma.

Giant stones are displayed at the gem market in Tachilek, Burma. The city of Tachilek sits on the Thai-Burmese border in Shan State and is known to be one of the crossing points for Burmese gems into Thailand. (Photo: Getty Images)

But the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) says: "US agencies have not shown that they are effectively targeting imports of Burmese-origin rubies, jadeite and related jewelry."

GAO is a policing agency of the US Congress charged with assessing whether laws are being effectively enforced.

"Impediments remain to restricting trade in Burmese rubies and jadeite," concludes a 49-page report assessing the 2008 JADE (Junta's Anti-Democratic Efforts) Act.

The report also admits that the US has been unsuccessful in winning the support of other countries linked to the gems industry in curbing Burmese trade.

"Strong support and the cooperation of China and Thailand are important to restrict trade in these items, but highly unlikely," the report said.

It said the US government has failed to put forward any United Nations resolution on gems sanctions because "a number of countries would likely oppose a resolution."

Burma's neighbor Thailand remains a major source of finished ruby and jade jewelry for the US and Europe but insists that its products - although often sourced to Burma for raw materials - are substantially finished in Thailand and therefore not sanctionable.

Thai jewelry exports to the United States in 2008 were valued at US $8 billion, said the GAO.

The US admissions come as the new Barack Obama presidency signals changes in Washington policy toward the Burmese junta, including more constructive contacts and Suu Kyi's meeting in Rangoon recently with leading Western country ambassadors to discuss the effects of sanctions.

Many campaigners for democratic change in Burma strongly support sanctions as a means of penalizing the junta, but others argue that they are merely hurting ordinary Burmese.

"The only perceptible effect of sanctions is that they have generally debilitated the Burmese economy, and this stagnation has been felt by the population at large," said the former British ambassador to Thailand, Derek Tonkin, this week.

Tonkin heads up Network Myanmar, a Britain-based campaign for human rights and democracy in Burma.

"The regime and its cronies have, however, been able to avoid any significant or even measurable impact on themselves because of the total absence of sanctions applied in the region, notably by China, India and Russia," Tonkin said.

However, Sean Turnell, another Burma expert who tracks and assesses junta business activities, argues that the Burmese regime itself is responsible for trashing the country's economy and believes sanctions are a way of curbing the generals' self enrichment.

"For the moment at least there is little substantive change in US policy towards Burma," Turnell told The Irrawaddy.

"It's clear that some movement towards the release of political prisoners and certain other steps that demonstrate a genuine commitment to reform will be necessary before it does. In a sense, the bluff is now called on Burma's generals to put their cards on the table."

Turnell is a professor at Australia's Macquarie University and co-produces Burma Economic Watch.

The way in which the junta leaders sidestep sanctions was highlighted in a report last month by EarthRights International (ERI).

The junta leadership has siphoned off as much US $4.83 billion from the national budget in revenues from industrial giants Chevron and Total's operation of the Yadana gas field, said ERI.

And that enrichment has primarily been financed by Thailand which is the sole buyer of the Yadana gas and as a member of Asean does not apply or support any sanctions.

US Sen. Richard Lugar Lugar Lugar this week ann..ounced plans to introduce legislation to promote a free-trade agreement between the US and Asean.

US Sen. Richard Lugar this week announced plans to introduce legislation to promote a free-trade agreement between the US and Asean.

He said he believed current US sanctions against Asean member Burma would not be affected by such a development.

ERI also reported that the gas income theft by the junta was sitting in two Singapore banks - despite US sanctions supposedly in place to curb the international financial activities of junta generals and their proxies.

However, an economist with a Western embassy in Bangkok takes the view that Washington's GAO appears to have been "too ready to accept some of the submissions put to it by gem dealers and traders in Thailand, all with a vested interest to talk up the difficulties of establishing place of origin for Burma's gems and the damage done to small traders rather than SPDC [junta]-connected entities."

That Burma watcher, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive diplomatic circumstances of the issue, also noted: "The GAO report significantly underplays the role of large established entities in the Burmese gems trade, especially the SPDC-controlled Myanmar Gems Enterprise which conducts periodic high profile gem auctions.

"Such auctions raise significant funds for the regime. To the extent that entities such as the MGE are impacted, then US sanctions on Burma's gem exports are well targeted."


Burma's ploy to escape sanctions - Zin Linn
United Press International: Thu 15 Oct 2009

Last week Burmese leader Than Shwe allowed detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to meet Western diplomats, at her request, to talk about the sanctions imposed on the military regime.

The Nobel Prize winner, who remains under house arrest, was driven to a government guesthouse on Oct. 9 to meet acting U.S. Charge d'Affaires Thomas Vajda, British Ambassador Andrew Heyn, who represented the European Union, and Australian Deputy Head of Mission Simon Christopher Starr for an hour to discuss the possible lifting of sanctions on Burma.

It was no surprise that the junta agreed to Suu Kyi's request, as the sanctions are hurting the regime, said a Burmese journalist on condition of anonymity. Senior General Than Shwe would like to improve relations with Western countries, both to improve the country's economic condition and increase his legitimacy, he said.

"However, people do not believe the affair is an honest move," he said, pointing out that the junta's supreme commander wanted to get the international community to support his so-called "discipline-flourishing democracy."

The surprise meeting with diplomats followed two consultation sessions this month between Suu Kyi and the junta's liaison and Labor Minister Aung Kyi, to discuss her Sept. 25 proposal to help end sanctions against the regime.

On the same day, Oct. 9, Than Shwe spoke at military headquarters in the capital, Naypyitaw, confirming the launch of general elections as scheduled in 2010. He said he would not yield to demands from domestic and international critics who say that the country's military-sponsored Constitution should be revised ahead of next year's elections.

The 2008 Constitution, the junta said, was "approved" by more than 90 percent of eligible voters during a referendum in May 2008, just a few days after Cyclone Nargis devastated the country. The outcome of the referendum was widely dismissed as a sham, but the regime has ignored calls from the international community and Burma's main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, to review the Constitution.

Although there are 10 registered political parties in Burma, most are inactive. An electoral law should be put in place to allow new parties to form and register to contest the elections. The international community, led by the United Nations, has constantly urged that the election be all-inclusive, free and fair.

In April the NLD set forth the conditions for its participation in the 2010 elections. It requested that all provisions in the Constitution that are not in accord with democratic principles be amended, and that the poll be all-inclusive, free and fair under international supervision.

Rights groups have also said that the regime must release all 2,100 political prisoners, including NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, if it wants the elections to be regarded as legitimate.

The elections, which promise to be neither free nor fair in a country long condemned for human rights abuses, were planned following the 2008 Constitution, which in effect reinforces military control over any democratically elected administration.

The Western democracies and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon have warned that the world community would not recognize the election results unless the NLD participates in the polls and Aung San Suu Kyi is freed from house arrest, where she has been kept for 14 of the past 20 years.

International sanctions have been imposed on Burma since 1988, when the military mercilessly cracked down on pro-democracy demonstrations, leaving an estimated 3,000 people dead. The United States and the European Union increased their sanctions after the junta refused to acknowledge the NLD's victory in 1990 elections and then arrested opponents and suppressed every type of opposition. Most of the sanctions target the top generals in particular.

In addition to the U.S. and EU sanctions, the regime is presently suffering assorted sanctions from Australia, Canada and Japan. The regime has been left without development assistance from international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asia Development Bank.

Than Shwe hinted this year that he would be willing to open a political dialogue with Suu Kyi if she agreed to cooperate on the sanctions issue. However, in his speech to the War Veterans Organization, Than Shwe said that some powerful nations were trying to force and influence Burma under various pretexts.

"However, the military government of Myanmar does not get scared whenever intimidated and will continue to work relentlessly for a better future of the state and the people by overcoming any difficulties," Than Shwe said.

There is a contradiction between allowing the Lady to meet with Western diplomats and the heartless tone of Than Shwe's speech at the meeting with war veterans. People are concerned that the Lady is being exploited by the crooked military chief. The purpose of allowing her to meet with the diplomats seems to be to get the sanctions eased and to persuade the world to support Burma's version of democracy.

According to some analysts, there has been no improvement at all in the junta's treatment of its citizens. In 2009 there have been more acts of aggression, more restrictions toward media and civil society, more control over Internet users, more arrests, more political prisoners and more military attacks in ethnic minority areas.

Sanctions are not likely to be lifted until the junta takes positive steps such as ending aggression against the NLD and ethnic parties and allowing freedom of assembly and freedom of expression.

The best option would be for the junta's supreme commander to agree to dialogue with Suu Kyi in pursuit of national reconciliation. The 2008 Constitution and the junta's unyielding adherence to its seven-step roadmap toward the 2010 elections will create a highly unstable political climate. Without an agreement of national reconciliation, the elections will achieve nothing.

A sugarcoated concept like "discipline-flourishing democracy" cannot be sold in this information age. Citizens have enough knowledge to differentiate between sham and genuine freedom.

(Zin Linn is a freelance Burmese journalist living in exile in Bangkok, Thailand. He works at the NCGUB East Office as an information director and is vice president of Burma Media Association, which is affiliated with the Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontiers.)


Suu Kyi back in Myanmar's political arena: analysts - Didier Lauras
Agence France Presse: Tue 13 Oct 2009

Bangkok - Although still under house arrest, Aung San Suu Kyi has returned to an active political role by initiating dialogue with both Myanmar's junta and Western nations, analysts say.

In the space of seven days, after a Yangon court rejected the pro-democracy leader's appeal against her recently extended house arrest, her status appeared to shift rapidly from political prisoner to potential key negotiator.

"She is politically active and significant. She still has a role in Burma," said Win Min, an activist and scholar in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, using Myanmar's former name.

Events over the past week in the military-ruled nation have moved at a dizzying pace when compared with the stagnation of recent months.

Suu Kyi, detained for around 14 of the past 20 years, had two meetings with Aung Kyi, the labour minister and official liaison between her and the junta, the first such talks since January 2008.

The frail 64-year-old was subsequently granted permission by the ruling generals to discuss Western sanctions imposed on Myanmar with top United States, British and Australian diplomats in Yangon on Friday.

"She was very very engaged in the subject, very interested in going into detail on what she wanted to talk about and she seemed as ever very eloquent," said British ambassador Andrew Heyn in an interview with BBC.

Suu Kyi wrote a letter to Senior General Than Shwe at the end of September offering her co-operation in getting Western sanctions lifted, after years of favouring harsh measures against the generals.

Contrary to expectations, the junta chief seems to have accepted her proposal - at least for the time being.

"She would like to see herself as a pivotal point in the relations between the junta and the US. They might be prepared to allow this to some extent," said former British ambassador Derek Tonkin.

The military regime has promised elections for 2010, the first in Myanmar since 1990, when Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won by a landslide but was never allowed to take power.

With the opposition leader set to remain out of the way next year thanks to the recent 18-month extension to her house arrest, many observers believe the polls are a sham that will only strengthen the junta's power.

The reclusive regime chief, according to some analysts, is likely to try to use his opponent - whom he loathes - to restore his image for the elections.

"Than Shwe is the only one who took all these decisions," said the activist Win Min, referring to the rejection of Suu Kyi's appeal and her various subsequent meetings in recent days.

"He decided not to release her but to give her a little bit of freedom so that he could appear somehow as someone flexible," he added.

But Suu Kyi's lawyer Nyan Win was confident she could play an increasingly important part in developments over the coming months, especially following Washington's recent decision to re-engage the junta.

"We assume that her meeting with diplomats to lift sanctions is the start of her political role because sanctions themselves are a matter of politics," Nyan Win told AFP.

"Aung San Suu Kyi always has the right to participate in politics. It is not a concern whether or not she's under house arrest," he added.

Yet scepticism remains that the iron-fisted regime could repeat past behaviour and offer goodwill gestures before violently closing all doors to dialogue again.

One fundamental sign of progress would be a meeting between Suu Kyi and Than Shwe himself, as the pair have not met for years. Nyan Win raised the possibility of such talks on Friday.

But "The Lady", as she is widely known in Myanmar, would have to consult with other NLD members first and also see minister Aung Kyi again before a meeting with the junta leader would be possible, former ambassador Tonkin suggested.

He acknowledged however that the two sides were at least finally communicating.

"We don't know where this conversation is going to go. But it is taking place. It's the best game in town at the present time and we need to see where it goes," he said.


Burma's exiled Muslims - Syed Neaz Ahmad
Guardian (UK): Tue 13 Oct 2009

About 3,000 Rohingya families are awaiting deportation in Saudi prisons, but like the rest of their people, they have nowhere to go.

They have been described as some of the world's most persecuted refugees, and among the most forgotten, too. During my imprisonment in Jeddah I saw and met hundreds of inmates from Burma.

Thousands of Burmese Muslims from Arakan - often called Rohingyas - were offered a safe haven in Saudi Arabia by the late King Faisal, but with the change in monarch the rules changed too. What was to have been a permanent abode of peace for these uprooted people has now turned into a chamber of horrors.

There are about 3,000 families of Burmese Muslims in Mecca and Jeddah prisons awaiting deportation. Women and children are held in separate prisons nearby. The only contact the men have with their wives and children is through mobile phones.

But the interesting question is: where will they be sent when they are eventually deported? Burma doesn't want them. Bangladesh, with a large population and poor economy, doesn't have the inclination or the ability to handle a refugee population of this size. The Rohingyan refugees in Bangladesh are having a rough time as it is. Other Muslim countries play silent spectators.

Pakistan's offer to accept some of the Rohingyas - those awaiting deportation in Saudi prisons - is seen as a mere diplomatic exercise. Against the background of Islamabad's shabby treatment of some 300,000 stranded Pakistanis living in camps in Bangladesh, Rohingya inmates look at the Pakistani overture with suspicion.

The people who call themselves Rohingyas are Muslims from what is known as the Mayu frontier area, the Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships of Arakan (Rakhine) state, a province isolated in the western part of the country across the Naaf river which forms the boundary between Burma and Bangladesh. After Burma gained independence from the UK in 1948, the ethnic and religious group first favoured joining Pakistan but later called for an autonomous region instead.

The Burmese government, however, has consistently refused to recognise the Rohingyas as citizens. According to Amnesty International, in 1978 more than 200,000 Rohingyas fled to Bangladesh, following the Burmese army's Operation Nagamin. Most - it is claimed - were eventually repatriated, but about 15,000 refused to return. In 1991, a second wave of about a quarter of a million Rohingyas fled Burma to Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, it is estimated that there are more than 200,000 Rohingyas, 28,000 of them in overcrowded camps. There are a further 13,600 registered with the UNHCR in Malaysia (although there are thousands yet unregistered), an estimated 3,000 in Thailand and unknown numbers in India and Japan.

Some Rohingyas have resided in Malaysia since the early 1990s, but continue to be rounded up in immigration operations and handed over to human traffickers at the Thai-Malaysia border. About 730,000 remain in Burma, most of whom live in Arakan state.

Conditions in Arakan state continue to deteriorate, increasing the likelihood of further outflows into neighbouring countries. It's an irony that countries in Asia and elsewhere - particularly Muslim countries - have shown little or no desire to help ease the situation.

The UNHCR spokeswoman in Asia, Kitty Mckinsey says: "No country has really taken up their cause. Look at the Palestinians, for example, they have a lot of countries on their side. The Rohingyans do not have any friends in the world."

The late King Faisal's decision to offer them a permanent abode in Saudi Arabia was a noble gesture. However, later Saudi rulers have found the Burmese Muslims a thorn in their side. With strict regulation on their employment and movement within the kingdom, they are easy targets for extortion and torture.

There are said to be about 250,000 Burmese Muslims in Saudi Arabia - the majority living in Mecca's slums (Naqqasha and Kudai). They sell vegetables, sweep streets and work as porters, carpenters and unskilled labour. The fortunate ones rise to become drivers.

In Saudi Arabia it is not uncommon for poor Rohingyas to marry off their young (sometimes underage) daughters to old and sick Saudis in the hope of getting "official favours". But this hasn't worked for many. Rohingyan wives of Saudi men, who have to survive as second class human beings on the periphery of society.

Those whom I met in Jeddah prisons seem to have accepted the situation as a fait accompli. But it is unfortunate that they are being made to suffer in a country considered to be the citadel of Islam.


Burma's new constitution: A death sentence for ethnic diversity - Zipporah Sein
Irrawaddy: Tue 13 Oct 2009

As Burma's rainy season draws to a close, ethnic Karen villagers in eastern Burma are bracing themselves for a new military onslaught. It is expected that this new military offensive will be much larger than the one in June, which forced around 6,000 people to flee for their lives.

We already have strong indications that the new offensive will take place in Dooplaya and Mutraw (Papun) districts, as attacks have been going on there throughout the rainy season. Until three years ago, the Burmese government's army mostly ceased operations during the rainy season, but now civilians get no respite.

So, why this new urgency to escalate attacks? The reason is the same as why the number of political prisoners has doubled in the past two years. It is the same reason why Aung San Suu Kyi was put on trial and her detention extended, and why the dictatorship has broken cease-fire agreements and demanded cease-fire groups place their soldiers under the control of the regime's army. All opposition and ethnic groups must be crushed in the run up to elections in 2010.

The elections bring in a new Constitution that legalizes dictatorship through a civilian front and a rubber-stamp Parliaments to do its bidding. For Burma's generals this Constitution is a way of securing their rule.

Despite having been lied to so many times before, the international community seems to be falling into their trap. Many countries have been making the mistake of focusing on the process of the elections, whether they can be free and fair, or at least create some political space.

How short their memories are, when only last year we saw the disgusting spectacle of a referendum on the Constitution while millions went without food and shelter following cyclone Nargis. No political space was created by the referendum.

Those trying to organize a No vote were harassed, arrested or beaten. The rigged referendum delivered an unbelievable result of "92 percent" in favor. Yet despite all evidence to the contrary, some still argue the 2010 elections could create a new political space.

While attention has been on the elections, little attention has been paid to the Constitution. Even those few countries which do focus on the Constitution have mostly focused on how it is undemocratic, granting 25 percent of the seats to the military and giving the military wide veto power over any change.

Attention has also rightly been drawn to other provisions in the Constitution, such as the head of state having to come from the military, 400,000 monks being denied the vote and the failure to repeal any of the existing repressive laws.

No one seems to pay much attention to what this Constitution will mean for ethnic people. The 2008 Constitution is a death sentence for ethnic diversity in Burma. Military appointed commanders will control ethnic areas. There is no level of autonomy.

Our cultures and traditions are given no protection. We will be given no rights to practice our customs, or to speak and teach our languages. The process of Burmanization that has already been going on for decades will be accelerated.

The Karen know from personal experience just how bad this process is. Karen people in the Delta and Rangoon are being stripped of their identity and younger generations can't speak, read or write our own language, don't know our history, and even use Burman names to avoid discrimination in employment. Our vision is for a new federal constitution that will guarantee the rights of ethnic people.

The international community seems content to wait and see if elections in 2010 create a little political space. While they focus on the minutiae of politics in Rangoon and Naypyidaw, all around them Burma is descending into an even greater human rights and humanitarian crisis. They must wake up to the urgency of the current situation.

The crisis is unfolding before our eyes. Escalating military attacks on ethnic people are leading to a major humanitarian crisis and creating regional instability. Already we have seen thousands more refugees arrive in Thailand and China. More government soldiers have been sent to Karenni and Shan states, and with the generals breaking cease-fire agreements, the regime will soon also be on the warpath in Kachin and Mon states.

For those of us on the ground it is hard to understand why the United Nations seems content to allow the dictatorship to follow its own agenda in direct defiance of the Security Council and General Assembly.

Time and again the UN has said that there must be tri-partite dialogue between the National League for Democracy (NLD), ethnic representatives and the dictatorship.

The Karen National Union is ready to talk. Other ethnic organizations are ready to talk. The NLD is ready to talk. It is the generals who refuse to talk.

Luckily for them, it seems the United Nations is all talk, but no action.

* Zipporah Sein is general secretary of the Karen National Union.


The soldier and the state - Andrew Marshall
TIME: Tue 13 Oct 2009

Among Manchester United Football Club's 300 million or so supporters worldwide are two Burmese men whose love of the game spans generations. One is a stout, bespectacled, betel nut - chewing septuagenarian, the other his favorite teenage grandson, and like many of their soccer-mad compatriots they stay up late into Burma's tropical nights to watch live broadcasts from faraway England. So far, so normal. But knowing the grandfather in this touching scene is Senior General Than Shwe, the xenophobic chief of Burma's junta, makes it seem all wrong. Rabidly anti-Western, yet pro - Wayne Rooney, is this the tyrant we know and hate?

That English football is one of Than Shwe's surprise passions might seem trivial, but it raises a serious question. With U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying on Sept. 24 that Washington would begin "engaging directly" with Burma's military leaders after 20 years of American censure and sanctions, how well do we really know the junta? "We don't understand it very well at all, although it's not very easy to understand," says Donald M. Seekins, a Burma scholar at Meio University in Okinawa, Japan. Trying to fathom the regime's worldview doesn't mean we condone its human-rights abuses; many believe that ongoing atrocities by the Burmese military constitute war crimes. But policies based on a flawed understanding of Than Shwe and his men will be ineffective or even counterproductive, warn Burma experts. Now, therefore, is time to get to know the generals - starting with the man his soldiers call Aba Gyi, or Grandfather. (See TIME's photo essay "Burma: 19 Years of Protest.")

Loyalty - and Dishonor

Than Shwe, the junta's chief since 1992, is Burma's enigmatic but undisputed leader. "He exercises almost absolute power," says Seekins. "Nobody wants to challenge him, at least openly." His origins were humble. Born in a village not far from Mandalay, Burma's last royal capital, he dropped out of high school and worked in a post office before joining officer-training school and rising up through the military ranks, specializing in psychological warfare. Unquestioning loyalty was "the secret of his success," says Benedict Rogers, co-author of a forthcoming book called Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma's Tyrant. "He always followed orders. He was never seen by anyone as a threat, and therefore was rewarded with promotions, precisely because he didn't really demonstrate any flair or initiative."

Since reaching the top, Than Shwe has shown "a talent for hanging on to power," says Seekins. Rivals are ruthlessly purged: Khin Nyunt, his ambitious former spy chief, has been under house arrest since 2004. Burma watchers say loyal officers are rewarded with opportunities to enrich themselves through graft and rent-seeking.

The West might regard him as backward, but Than Shwe, 76, sees himself as a bold reformer who took a bankrupt nation and threw it open to foreign investment, who built not just roads and bridges but a grand new capital called Naypyidaw - "Abode of Kings." The reality is a little different. Foreign trade has enriched the junta; the Yadana natural-gas project alone has earned the regime $4.83 billion since 2000, according to the Washington-based nonprofit EarthRights International in a recent report. But most Burmese still live in wretched poverty. The new capital is an expensive boondoggle.

And yet to write off Than Shwe as the deluded head of a hermit regime is a mistake. The junta has shrewdly adapted to 20 years of breakneck growth in Asia, first drawing investment from Southeast Asian neighbors  -  until a new regional giant emerged. "In 1988, nobody in the Burmese military knew how quickly China would grow economically," says Seekins. "But as this was happening [the regime] took advantage of that situation to promote close ties to China." Burma joined ASEAN in 1997, gaining further allies against Western criticism and more trade opportunities (Thailand gets most of its natural gas from Burma), and is improving ties with India. Even at Naypyidaw, once a symbol of seclusion, the junta plans to build an international airport to handle over 10 million passengers a year. "They're much less isolationist than we think, although they choose their friends carefully," says Rogers. "Those friends tend to be countries that turn a blind eye to their conduct." (Read "Why Violence Erupted on the China-Burma Border.")

Even the junta's notorious xenophobia is rooted less in a desire for isolation than in an ingrained fear of invasion. Burma has been occupied by many foreign powers over the centuries and riven by ethnic insurgencies since its independence from Britain in 1948. The Burmese military's historical role is to safeguard the country from all foes, foreign and domestic. The generals regard a threat to their regime as a threat to the nation. This might seem "misguided, even deluded," observes Andrew Selth, a Burma analyst with Australia's Griffith University, but the generals' fear of invasion is real and has been constantly stoked by Western actions and rhetoric. During pro-democracy protests in 1988, the U.S. deployed a naval taskforce off Burma's coast and later lumped the country with Iran and North Korea as an "outpost of tyranny." Whether real or perceived, Western hostility has prompted the junta to take two concrete actions: building one of Asia's largest standing armies, and seeking closer links with China and Russia, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

Rogues Gallery

Than Shwe is burma's paramount ruler, but he is not alone at the top. Hard-line loyalists within the military include General Thura Shwe Mann, his likely successor, and U Thaung, a former ambassador to the U.S., now the Science and Technology Minister who is believed to be driving the junta's long-held ambitions to acquire nuclear technology. Also influential are a handful of Burmese business tycoons, many of whom - like the generals themselves - are the subject of U.S. and E.U. sanctions that severely restrict overseas travel and investments. Lobbying of Than Shwe by these business cronies could explain the warm welcome accorded in August to pro-engagement Senator Jim Webb. State-run television showed a smiling Than Shwe pumping the former combat Marine's hand, while the New Light of Myanmar newspaper, a junta mouthpiece, reminded its readers that "even an influential U.S. senator opposes the economic sanctions against our country." (Read "Burma: Virginia Senator Jim Webb Visits Junta Leader.")

The junta has survived and prospered despite two decades of ever tightening sanctions. Yet the years have not dimmed its desire to have those sanctions lifted. "Many people say [Than Shwe] doesn't care what the world thinks, but he does want pariah status removed," says Rogers. He also wants "a veneer of legitimacy" and hopes the planned 2010 elections will provide it. Than Shwe has vowed to create a so-called "discipline-flourishing democracy" that will not only entrench military rule but protect his legacy - and his skin. In 2002, suspecting a plot against him, Than Shwe put Ne Win, the man who had first elevated him to power, and his daughter under house arrest and jailed his grandsons. "Ne Win died in ignominy," says Christina Fink, author of Living Silence: Burma Under Military Rule, a landmark book about life under the junta. "Than Shwe must be painfully aware that the same could happen to him." The junta chief has another weakness: his family. He allows them "to run wild," says Rogers. In July 2006, his jewel-bedecked daughter Thandar Shwe, one of eight children, married an army major in a lavish ceremony that angered many in this poverty-stricken nation. (See pictures of Burma's discontent.)

Standing Alone

Many in Burma's pro-democracy movement - and in the U.S. Congress - view any overtures to the generals as appeasement and say Than Shwe personally has blood on his hands. Aung Lynn Htut, a former Burmese diplomat and army major who defected to the U.S. in 2005, claims Grandfather personally ordered the massacre of 81 men, women and children on a remote Burmese island in 1998. Five years later, Than Shwe's thugs attacked the convoy of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at Depayin, west of Mandalay, killing or injuring dozens of her supporters.

The Nobel Peace Prize laureate remains his greatest rival. "He personally dislikes her," says Seekins. "It's not just a political calculation. He finds her too opinionated, too Westernized, too outspoken as a woman." In August Suu Kyi was found guilty of violating the terms of her house arrest after an American man swam uninvited to her lakeside home. Her initial three-year prison sentence was commuted to 18 months of house arrest because, said the order read aloud in court, Than Shwe "desires … to exercise leniency upon her." (Read "Burma Court Finds Aung San Suu Kyi Guilty.")

Military defector Aung Lynn Htut is unconvinced. He warns that his former commander will do anything to discredit Suu Kyi, a longtime supporter of Western sanctions. Than Shwe met Webb as part of a campaign to portray the Nobel laureate as "the enemy of the Burmese people [who] is too stubborn to lift sanctions," he says. But even Suu Kyi's pro-sanctions stance is no longer a given. U.S. engagement was "a good thing," she admitted recently through a spokesman for her National League for Democracy party.

Suu Kyi sounded cautious, and who can blame her? Than Shwe "remains impervious to the appeal of reform or compromise with the opposition because he wishes at all costs to maintain a personal monopoly on power," says Seekins. So will a fresh diplomatic onslaught work? The new U.S. approach on Burma is the product of a White House that stresses diplomacy over confrontation. "It's more a change in tactics than overall strategy," says Fink. Also driving the policy review are Washington's concerns over China's influence over Burma and Than Shwe's apparent nuclear ambitions. Seekins believes Washington risks overestimating the junta's willingness to open up. "The U.S. government may find itself in the same position as the Japanese government during the 1990s, when Tokyo believed it could get the [regime] to mend its ways by giving it some economic incentives."

For now, at least, the junta seems to be engaging all over the place. Last month its Prime Minister, General Thein Sein, became the highest-ranking Burmese official in 14 years to address the U.N. General Assembly. He told delegates that sanctions were "unjust." While in New York City, Thein Sein conferred with both Webb and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. Back in Burma, Suu Kyi met a senior junta official and is thought to have discussed the lifting of sanctions.

That won't happen anytime soon. It would send "the wrong signal," warned Campbell. His boss agrees. "Sanctions remain important as part of our policy," said Hillary Clinton, describing them and engagement as "tools" to achieve the same goal: democracy in Burma. Considering Than Shwe's nonexistent track record on reform, U.S. officials are right to downplay the impact of engagement. Barring any real concessions from the hard man himself - starting with the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners prevented from running in next year's polls - democracy remains a distant prospect. "Everyone is calling for reform, but I don't think Than Shwe feels any urgency about it," says Seekins. "Nothing much will change until he passes from the scene." One man controls everything that happens in Burma.



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