Burma Update

SCMP-Tuesday, December 16, 2003
SIMON MONTLAKE in Bangkok

Myanmar has told an international forum in Bangkok that it plans to invite opposition groups to a constitutional assembly next year as part of a process for reconciliation.

The main opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi would be allowed to join the assembly that would draw up a new constitution for Myanmar, Foreign Minister Win Aung said.

Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, who hosted the three-hour meeting of diplomats from European and Asian countries with his Myanmese counterpart, described the news of a convention next year as a "breakthrough".

"We have confirmed in principle that all political parties, including the NLD [National League for Democracy] will be invited," Mr Surakiart said.

"I was glad to hear Win Aung telling the meeting that the year 2004 will be a very busy year."

Thailand brought together a dozen countries to hear Win Aung explain the plan, but with Ms Suu Kyi still under house arrest, there had been few expectations of progress.

Ms Suu Kyi is under house arrest in Yangon after months of detention following an attack on her convoy by pro-government thugs in May that triggered international protest.

Until now, Myanmar has offered no time frame for its seven-point path to reconciliation and made no mention of the NLD or Ms Suu Kyi, who won a landslide victory in 1990 elections that the country's military rulers annulled.

But the constitutional assembly may prove elusive.

Myanmar held a similar convention in 1995 that collapsed amid accusations by the NLD and other opposition groups that the military had rigged the outcome to maintain its grip on power.

"Unless we have confirmation from the NLD, I don't think we can call this a breakthrough," said Aung Naing Oo, an exiled Burmese political analyst.

"The question is how flexible the military is prepared to be when it comes to this convention."

Mr Surakiart said the forum would meet again early next year to continue what he called the "Bangkok process".

Officials said other countries were welcome to join the grouping of "like-minded countries" to learn more about Myanmar's plans for reconciliation.

Neither Britain nor the US, which are among the fiercest critics of Myanmar's recalcitrant military regime, sent diplomats to the Bangkok forum, and Italy, France and Germany sent only junior ministry officials.

But the meeting was attended by China's Assistant Foreign Minister, Shen Guo Sang, and representatives from Australia, India, Japan and Indonesia.

SCMP-Saturday, December 13, 2003
PETER KAMMERER, Foreign Editor

Myanmar's military rulers will soon begin the process of moving towards democratisation, but opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is unlikely to be included, a respected American researcher predicted yesterday.

Georgetown University professor of Asian studies David Steinberg gave his assessment as negotiators began arriving in Bangkok for a half-day meeting on Monday at which the so-called road map to democracy will be formally presented.

Thailand's Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, requested the gathering, which has been given cautious support by the United States and pro-democracy groups.

Optimism increased when ethnic Karen rebels this week agreed to a ceasefire and another group, the Kachin, last month announced it would back a convention to draw up a new constitution.

But exiled opponents of the military remain sceptical and Dr Steinberg, a regular traveller to Myanmar who recently met junta officials in Yangon, said publication of a timetable was vital to allay concerns.

He believed the military would take a major step forward, possibly by announcing the convention, next month. Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy would likely be involved, but her exclusion was a possibility.

"The most optimistic prediction would be the NLD might be included, but Suu Kyi would not," Dr Steinberg said from his Washington office.

The party won general elections in 1990 but was denied taking office by the military. The opposition leader and hundreds of her supporters have since been intimidated through arrest and alleged human rights abuses.

Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD's most senior leaders have been held by authorities since May 30, when their convoy travelling in the north of the country was involved in a clash with pro-government gangs.

To assuage growing western criticism, Prime Minister Khin Nyunt on August 30 unveiled a seven-point plan to move the country towards democracy and the proposal will be the focus of Monday's meeting in Thailand.

Those attending will be deputy foreign ministers from Myanmar, Japan, Australia and European Union countries. The United States has also expressed interest, but its attendance has not been confirmed.

The general secretary of the exiled National Council of the Union of Burma, Aung Moe Zaw, described the road map as "an old and failed project".

"If the regime really wants to solve the country's problems, they should not marginalise Aung San Suu Kyi," he said from Bangkok. "They have to talk with her."

Myanmar's government has said there will be a "disciplined democracy" with a multi-party system, and Dr Steinberg believes Suharto-era Indonesia is the model.

But he is uncertain what shape democracy Myanmar-style will take, given that the country has been under military rule for four decades and virtually closed to the rest of the world.

"Who are the younger leaders of the opposition?" he asked. "What do they know of the world? What do they know about democracy? What do they know about economics?"

SCMP-Saturday, December 13, 2003
PETER KAMMERER, Foreign Editor

Myanmar's military rulers will soon begin the process of moving towards democratisation, but opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is unlikely to be included, a respected American researcher predicted yesterday.

Georgetown University professor of Asian studies David Steinberg gave his assessment as negotiators began arriving in Bangkok for a half-day meeting on Monday at which the so-called road map to democracy will be formally presented.

Thailand's Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, requested the gathering, which has been given cautious support by the United States and pro-democracy groups.

Optimism increased when ethnic Karen rebels this week agreed to a ceasefire and another group, the Kachin, last month announced it would back a convention to draw up a new constitution.

But exiled opponents of the military remain sceptical and Dr Steinberg, a regular traveller to Myanmar who recently met junta officials in Yangon, said publication of a timetable was vital to allay concerns.

He believed the military would take a major step forward, possibly by announcing the convention, next month. Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy would likely be involved, but her exclusion was a possibility.

"The most optimistic prediction would be the NLD might be included, but Suu Kyi would not," Dr Steinberg said from his Washington office.

The party won general elections in 1990 but was denied taking office by the military. The opposition leader and hundreds of her supporters have since been intimidated through arrest and alleged human rights abuses.

Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD's most senior leaders have been held by authorities since May 30, when their convoy travelling in the north of the country was involved in a clash with pro-government gangs.

To assuage growing western criticism, Prime Minister Khin Nyunt on August 30 unveiled a seven-point plan to move the country towards democracy and the proposal will be the focus of Monday's meeting in Thailand.

Those attending will be deputy foreign ministers from Myanmar, Japan, Australia and European Union countries. The United States has also expressed interest, but its attendance has not been confirmed.

The general secretary of the exiled National Council of the Union of Burma, Aung Moe Zaw, described the road map as "an old and failed project".

"If the regime really wants to solve the country's problems, they should not marginalise Aung San Suu Kyi," he said from Bangkok. "They have to talk with her."

Myanmar's government has said there will be a "disciplined democracy" with a multi-party system, and Dr Steinberg believes Suharto-era Indonesia is the model.

But he is uncertain what shape democracy Myanmar-style will take, given that the country has been under military rule for four decades and virtually closed to the rest of the world.

"Who are the younger leaders of the opposition?" he asked. "What do they know of the world? What do they know about democracy? What do they know about economics?"

Asia Times - 13 December 2003
By Alan Boyd

SYDNEY - When he signed the first of two sanctions bills against Myanmar six months ago, US President George W Bush appealed to international business to carry the torch of political freedom by cutting economic ties with a regime that he labeled evil and corrupt. But any thoughts that corporations might meekly surrender to what many saw as emotional blackmail have been firmly quashed by investment data, which suggest there has been little if any weakening of business resolve.

In the same week that energy multinational Unocal went on trial in California for alleged human-rights violations committed in Myanmar, a labor watchdog revealed there were 375 foreign firms with interests there - including 48 newcomers.

Unocal is one of 41 US companies active in Myanmar, according to the latest list compiled by the Brussels-based International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU). Others include 3M, American Express, Caterpillar, Compaq, DHL, General Motors, Leo Burnett and United Technologies. In addition, there are more than 100 firms registered in the European Union bloc, which levies its own sanctions against Myanmar. Among these are Air France, Alcatel, Deutsche Bank, East Asiatic, Lauda Air, Lufthansa, Nestle and Total.

ICFTU, which supports a campaign by the International Labor Organization (ILO) to secure political change by ostracizing Myanmar's military junta, admitted that many investors still needed convincing.

"International trade-union campaigning has been successful in slowing investment into Burma [Myanmar] and has encouraged a number of well-recognized multinational companies to sever ties with the country," the grouping stated. "However, the international trade-union movement's list shows that large-scale public protest has failed to move a number of large, well-known companies to leave Burma ..."

Human-rights groups, which also favor a pullout, are hoping that the Unocal case, the first prosecution of a US firm over its conduct abroad to reach trial in the United States, will persuade others to withdraw.

A group of 13 villagers is seeking financial compensation over Unocal's alleged failure to prevent the use of slave labor in the construction of a natural-gas pipeline from the Andaman Sea to Thailand in the mid-1990s during which they were reportedly beaten and tortured. Unocal has strenuously denied the accusations and maintains it has no liability because it is represented in Myanmar only by foreign-based subsidiaries. The pipeline is owned by the Myanmar government, while Unocal has a minority interest.

The lawsuit was lodged under the little-known Alien Tort Claims Act of 1792, which permits foreigners to sue one another in US courts, and is unlikely to be the last of its kind. A dozen similar cases are also pending, though none has yet come to trial.

Marriott Hotels, Triumph International, Accor Hotels, Premier Oil and British American Tobacco (BAT) have all pulled out since the Unocal action was launched and the economic sanctions took effect. But most of the evidence suggests that they bowed to consumer and shareholder pressure rather than legal threats, while their places were often taken by newcomers with fewer scruples. BAT, the subject of intense political lobbying in the United Kingdom, simply off-loaded its 60 percent stake to a Singapore-based investor and will continue to get revenues under a licensing agreement.

"Companies from neighboring Southeast Asian countries are tending to 'fill the gap' left by departing businesses," the trade union grouping acknowledged in its report, confirming the difficulty of isolating a regime that still enjoys regional business support.

There are still 190 Asian firms registered as Myanmar investors, including 44 from Japan, 32 from Singapore, 26 from Thailand and 25 from Malaysia. China, a close political ally, has 20 projects.

Many of the incoming firms are smaller and present a less visible target for protesters, making it likely that the sanctions campaign will plateau once the more familiar multinationals have left town.

Lobbying group Burma Campaign reported this week that 24 small tour firms had taken control of the vacation market after the withdrawal of large wholesalers such as Kuoni. While seven travel companies have dropped Myanmar from their brochures since the start of the year, the ruling junta claimed that 277,647 tourists had visited between April and October, an increase of 27 percent over the same period in 2002.

Independent figures on tourist arrivals are not available. However, travel-industry spokesmen confirmed that relatively few foreigners were heeding calls for a boycott on all travel links.

"Asians have little familiarity with the US sanctions, and we have found most Westerners want to make up their own minds ... they don't like being told by their governments what to do," said a Hong Kong-based tour guide. "Our bookings are up probably 20 percent or so since last year, as Burma is one of the most popular new destinations."

The sanctions have undoubtedly had an impact at the trade level, with the State Department acknowledging last month that a ban on imports imposed as part of the business embargo would probably cost 100,000 jobs in the textiles industry alone. But the junta itself has shown no signs of wilting under the pressure, and has turned to aid donors and development funds to make up the shortfall of foreign exchange as investors depart.

Underlining the importance of these contacts, Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt personally led a delegation to Japan this week to seek regional financing as part of a Mekong basin package. Tokyo, displaying growing irritation at the slow pace of democratization in Myanmar, suspended all bilateral economic assistance in June after the detention of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Thailand, another close trading partner, has offered to pay for infrastructure upgrades in the region of its border with Myanmar, including road improvements that will benefit market commerce.

China gave Yangon a soft loan of US$200 million this year to cover the government's cash-flow problems and canceled a portion of outstanding debt for purchases of military hardware and other goods.

India, which has only 11 registered foreign investment projects in Myanmar but a flourishing border trade, will advance $57 million so the northerly Yangon-Mandalay railway can be upgraded to allow traders easier access.

Ironically, the net effect of these improvements will be to make Myanmar more attractive to foreign investors just when they are being forced out, a point that has not been lost on the multinationals. Some are going on the offensive against what they contend is an unfair smear campaign and an intervention in business practices.

Japan-based Mitsubishi Corporation, an active investor in Myanmar, has defended its activities as a "good-faith approach" that is helping to build a durable democracy from the ground up.

"We believe that generally in the long run economic opportunity and development will promote positive political change and will provide a stable economic base to make that political change sustainable," Gen Kagayarna, general manager for environmental and social responsibility, said in a letter to the ICFTU. "We believe that isolation generally impedes progress and makes the lives of the average citizen harder."