Burma Update

BangkokPost Feature: 29 March'07

By Peter Janssen

Rangoon (dpa) - Last month, in a rare show of public dissent in military-run Burma, a dozen people marched in Rangoon to protest rising food prices, frequent electricity cuts, corruption and mismanagement of the economy.

After their brief march downtown, the protesters were detained, interrogated and made to promise they would not stage another demonstration.

Such responses to all signs of dissent are to be expected from Burma's ruling junta, but what was unknown was how the public would react.

"What we tried on February 26 was a test balloon," said Win Naing, an independent politician who was one of the chief organisers behind the march. "I wanted to see how much the people wanted to join us, but to be frank, I don't think the people were ready."

Western observers often marvel at the Burmese people's capacity to endure economic privations, frequently the outcome of economic mismanagement by the military-led government.

Today's rising inflation in the country is a good example.

Last April, in what appeared to be a move to placate widespread discontent within the civil service for being force-marched to Burma's new capital of Naypyitaw in late 2005, the government hiked government salaries by as much as 500 per cent.

Naturally, inflation swiftly followed.

One Rangoon-based market researcher estimated that the price of high-quality rice rose 100 per cent last year while the price of chillies rose 200 per cent, pepper 300 per cent and onions 250 per cent.

Although the government estimated inflation at 10.7 per cent in 2006, Western embassies said it was closer to 50 per cent. And prices are still rising.

"Last month, the price of chilies was 10,000 kyat [8 dollars] per petah [1.6 kilograms], but this month, it's 12,000 kyat," said Aye Aye, a vegetable seller at Hledan market in Rangoon.

Meanwhile, salaries for non-government workers remain miserably low, averaging about 1,000 kyat a day or 25,000 kyat a month.

Some factories in Rangoon have reportedly started providing their workers with free lunches because so many were skipping their midday meal to save money.

Children working on road-construction projects to help supplement their meagre family incomes are a common sight in Burma. Shwe Shwe Aung, 12, is spending her summer vacation hauling baskets of stones to repave the road to Mandalay in the Daik U district of Bego State.

"I need the money to pay for my school tuition," said Shwe Shwe, who earns 900 kyat a day.

With rising inflation, low wages and a seemingly uncaring government, any other country could expect an explosion of protests and riots, but in Burma, the people in general have kept quiet over the past two decades, and for good reason.

In 1988, unbearable economic conditions did spark nationwide demonstrations that eventually forced former military strong man Ne Win to step down.

Ne Win - father of the "Burmese Way to Socialism," which impoverished the country from 1962 to 1988 - had demonetised more than half the kyat currency in circulation in 1987 in one of his unique solutions to combating inflation, going on the theory, no money, no inflation.

The military's bloody crackdown on the popular demonstrations in September 1988, which left an estimated 3,000 dead, has left a lasting impression.

Burma has essentially been under martial law since then with public gatherings of more than five people banned unless they have received official permission. Crackdowns on all shows of dissent were intensified after the 1990 general election, which was won by the National League for Democracy (NLD) Party of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The regime has ignored that election results for the past 17 years, arguing that a new constitution would be needed before an elected government could take over. Another general election might be held by 2008 although no date has been set.

In this context the small, short-lived protest against inflation was an unusual event, but one that has also demonstrated that things are not yet bad enough to spark mass riots.

"They need more motivation," Win Naing said. "The people are still afraid because they know they are vulnerable to strong reactions from the authorities and they are tired of making sacrifices."

Naypyitaw, Burma (dpa) - Disproving persistent rumours that he is on the verge of death, Burma's junta leader stood in the hot morning sun for more than an hour Tuesday to mark Armed Forces Day.

Senior General Than Shwe, commander-in-chief of the defence forces and head of the country's ruling military junta, inspected 15,035 troops, received their roared oath of loyalty, delivered a speech and saluted the departing parade in an hour-and-a-half long ceremony commemorating the annual holiday.

Than Shwe, 74, stood at attention throughout the ceremony, showing no obvious signs of fatigue and delivered his speech without a flaw, all under Burma's baking sun.

"I think I'd have had a hard time standing in the sun like that," observed one Western military attache attending the ceremony, which was held for the second time in Naypyitaw, Burma's new capital, about 350 kilometres north of Yangon, the old capital.

Than Shwe's health has been a subject of rumour in this cloistered, totalitarian state, where accurate information is hard to come by.

Rumours that Than Shwe was suffering a serious illness gained credence in January when the general made a secretive visit to Singapore for a medical checkup, and informed sources insisted that Than Shwe is suffering from diabetes and heart disease.

The general has led Burma's State Peace and Development Council, as the junta styles itself, for more than a decade. Under his leadership, the military has committed itself to a seven-step road map to democracy that has kicked off, with glacial slowness, with the National Convention process, an appointed forum tasked with drafting a new constitution that is to eventually pave the way for a general election.

"The process for the laying-down of basic principles for the drafting of a new constitution has now reached to its final stage," Than Shwe said in his speech at Armed Forces Day.

The fifth, and presumably final session of the Nation Convention, was expected to be held this year in April or after the rainy season, which ends in October.

There are fears that should Than Shwe die before the convention process is completed, Burma's already pokey road to political reform would be further delayed during an ensuing power struggle.

The two generals deemed most likely to succeed Than Shwe are army chief Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann, but there is little doubt that Burma would remain under military rule for many years to come, no matter whether Than Shwe survives his illnesses or is replaced.

Burma has been under military rule since General Ne Win overthrew the country's first elected government in 1962. Although the military allowed a general election in 1990, it has ignored the results.

Those polls were won by the National League for Democracy, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for 12 of the past 17 years.

Source: BangkokPost 27, March 2007

The Nation EDITORIAL
25 March 2007

As it closes its doors, the international community must step up its pressure on the pariah state for reforms

The junta in Burma has settled into a long-standing pattern of defiance these days. Creditable international organisations with a presence in the country have closed down one by one. Such was the case recently when the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) withdrew from the country in March. ICRC's decision came after it was clear that the junta was imposing restrictions on the organisation's activities.

The reason for these restrictions is simple: the junta does not want independent international and humanitarian organisations that have the capacity and the access to pry on their society and subsequently help their citizens. Their efforts to shut out international watchers include the United Nations, which has been restricted by new regulations put in place in November of last year. Some of the organisations operating in Burma tolerate these newly improvised regulations because they want to protect their presence in the country and channel in humanitarian aid. Since there is no unity among the UN, other international groups and non-governmental agencies, Burmese military leaders have been able to successfully employ a divide-and-conquer strategy.

After the failure of the UN Security Council, headed by the US and Western countries, to pass a non-binding resolution against them, the junta's confidence has grown by leaps and bounds. Those in the top echelon in Burma know that if they stick together, no international coalition or sanction will be able to hurt them. Indeed, examples abound of pariah states that are able to withstand international pressure if they can stay in power long enough. Apparently, the Burmese junta is confident that this strategy will work, albeit amid the growing oppression inside the country and the misconduct of their low-paid armed forces.

Reports of these practices, such as systematic rape, continue unabated. The latest report by the Women's League of Chinland (WTC) is a case in point. It is the first report to provide detailed evidence of the rapes being committed by the military regime's troops in western Burma. The report documents 38 cases of sexual violence committed with impunity throughout Chin state mostly during the past five years. Almost half of these cases were gang rapes, and at least a third of them were committed by officers. They are used as a means to humiliate female minorities.

With the continued oppression inside Burma, international pressure must continue and strengthen to ensure that that the military junta will not get away scot-free. Both China and India, the two Asian giants, must fulfil their international obligations to promote peace and stability in the region. They could, if they acted in a concerted manner, influence the military junta in a positive way.

Asean also needs to do its part. Since the last summit in Cebu, the Philippines, Asean leaders have decided to soften their approach towards Burma, hoping that the regime would be responsive and open up a bit. At that time, the junta released some political prisoners, although there are still over 1,000 in jail. As the debates and the discussion heat up over the Asean Charter's drafting process, it has become clear to everyone that Burma is trying to dilute the attempts to make Asean more democratic and friendly towards civil society organisations.

It is fortunate that the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has not given in despite some soft stands towards Burma in its first six months in office.

Now Thailand is keeping to a "no contact, no change" policy with the regime there. Thailand's strong call for a more people-oriented Asean during the charter-drafting process has troubled Burma. Bangkok's call for the establishment of an Asean human-rights commission to be included in the draft charter has also met with fierce objections from Burma.

The international community must not give up on Burma. With so many crises looming in various parts of the world, members of the international community might be suffering from crisis fatigue. Regardless, they must not give the military junta the benefit of assuming that the international community is ceasing to put on the pressure.

Reforms stall as top generals position themselves for when an ailing Than Shwe fades from the scene

By LARRY JAGAN


Burma's political reform process is now completely stalled as the country's military rulers remain deadlocked over how to move forward. National reconciliation, as the junta calls its plans for political change, has ground to a halt as the top generals are preoccupied with reorganising the government administration and the military command structure, in preparation for the future."The hardliners, who are resisting any kind of change, have regained the ear of the senior general [Than Shwe], while the pragmatists have gone to ground," said Burmese analyst Win Min. Bolstered by their escape at the UN Security Council earlier this year when the junta's main allies, China and Russia, blocked a US-backed resolution, the top generals now feel there is no real pressure on them to change.

The National Convention, which is drawing up the new constitution, has been postponed until the end of the year, according to senior government officials. It had been expected to resume its deliberations later this month.

Top general Than Shwe's health is deteriorating dramatically, casting a longer shadow over plans for political change. He is getting increasingly reclusive, hiding away in his palatial mansion in Naypyidaw, some 400km north of Rangoon. He sees few people and only comes out to attend major meetings or functions.

One important ceremony he will attend, though, is for Armed Forces Day on March 27. Massive preparations are already under way. More than 10,000 soldiers are working around the clock to get the parade ground ready for the event in the new capital Naypyidaw.

"At night, they are working under floodlights," said a government official in the capital.

It is going to be a big affair _ the largest and grandest ever because it will be the senior general's last march past as commander-in-chief, according to senior military sources. The senior general's health has been failing for some time now. Than Shwe is known to suffer from hypertension and diabetes.

"He's subject to frequent diabetic rages when his sugar levels get out of control," said a Burmese army doctor. He also reportedly suffered a mild stroke two years ago.

In January, the senior general visited Singapore for a medical check-up after reportedly suffering chest pains. Singapore doctors feared he was suffering from cancer of the pancreas. He is now scheduled to return to Singapore for a major heart operation, reported to be a quadruple bypass, next month during Buddhist lunar new year, Thingyan. The authorities have declared an extended holiday then to help cover his absence.

When Than Shwe last flew to Singapore many thought he was on his last legs, and this sparked euphoria among majors and colonels in the army, said a Burmese government source. On his return, Than Shwe had to conduct an intensive media campaign to try to convince the country he was fit and in control.

More than 2,000 senior government officials and military officers are being sent to Buddhist monasteries during the Thingyan break.

While there are signs of a power struggle among Burma's top generals, many believe the main problem is between the top two generals who cannot agree who will take the top post if Than Shwe's health further deteriorates.

"Maung Aye is ready to seize control of the country if Than Shwe has to step down because of illness," said the Chiang Mai-based analyst Win Min.

"He will resist the immediate succession of Than Shwe's appointed man [Thura Shwe Mann]."

Behind the scenes, there are major differences of opinion between the main camps. The two contenders for the top post are divided over how to move the country forward, and at what speed.

"Maung Aye heads the hardliners who will resist change at all costs, preferring to maintain the status quo. Whereas the other camp, led by Thura Shwe Mann, is interested in exploring new initiatives that could help break the country's international isolation," said a senior Burmese political analyst based in Rangoon with close ties to the military.

But it seems clear now that Maung Aye has positioned himself to take power if Than Shwe stands down or is incapacitated in any way. Sources close to Maung Aye say he has told his people that their time is near.

"The fruit is almost ripe, all we need to do is hold out our arms and it will fall into our hands," said a close confidant of the general.

Maung Aye is now in control of all the day-to-day activities of the government, according to Asian diplomats who are close to the regime. While Thura Shwe Mann may be inclined to be more pragmatic, there is no incentive for him to rock the boat. No one at the top is likely to benefit from change or progress toward political reform now, said analysts in Rangoon. The status quo is by far the best option for everyone, including Than Shwe.

"Amid the current uncertainty there is no incentive to move forward, everyone has more to lose than gain," a senior Western diplomat in Rangoon said.

That is particularly true for Thura Shwe Mann.

"His best option is certainly to lie low and wait. If he tries to do too much, he could easily find himself isolated and share the same fate as the former prime minister, General Khin Nyunt," he said.

Khin Nyunt was arrested in October 2004, and is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to more than 50 years in jail.

"Nothing is happening and everyone is running to the fortune tellers to find out what will happen," the diplomat added.

Than Shwe's brain-child, the National Convention, which has been meeting intermittently since January 1993 drawing up the guidelines for a new constitution, was expected to resume its discussions in late March for what many analysts expected to be the final session. But Than Shwe is no longer pushing forward on the political road map.

Diplomats and visiting European academics were told recently that the reopening of the National Convention has been postponed until later in the year. Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan told visiting German academics it could be June or even November.

Foreign Minister Nyan Win told diplomats it would be later this year, but that the authorities would not make a public announcement at this time because hostile elements outside the country were trying to sabotage the process.

Both Asian and Western diplomats in Rangoon believe the National Convention is unlikely to reconvene before November. Many in Rangoon believe this may be partly because of the senior general's failing health and his fear that he cannot relinquish any of his power at present as this may put his position and his family's fortunes at risk.

"While Than Shwe may not be pushing ahead with the road map, he is still trying to execute the other part of his master plan," said a senior military source. "His strategy is to separate the military from government."

The process of civilianising the government administration is being pushed ahead. The military commanders who controlled the local authorities at provincial, district and township level are being replaced with former soldiers. The new administrative chiefs are being drawn from the pool of recently retired middle-ranking military officers. More than a thousand were compulsorily retired earlier this year.

A major shake-up in the cabinet is also likely later this year after the restructuring of the military command which is expected to emerge sometime after Armed Forces Day.

At one stage the plan was for the country's top two military rulers, Gen Than Shwe and his deputy Gen Maung Aye, to stand down from their military commands, and pass power to the next generation of generals. This now seems to be on hold indefinitely, but other major changes within the military are expected to proceed in the coming months.

A new generation of regional commanders would also be appointed, many of them in their early fifties. The military commanders would also withdraw from the administration of the provinces and villages, being replaced by civilians who have been handpicked by the junta. At the same time there would be a massive shake-up of government, with most ministers being replaced by younger men _ some possibly former regional commanders.

These planned changes are intended to prepare the army for the next phase in the country's move toward political reform and the introduction of a civilian administration. The changes are part of Than Shwe's plans to ensure that the draft constitution is approved by the national referendum. And to prepare for fresh elections which are expected to be held next year.

"This is all part of Than Shwe's plans to streamline government administration and strengthen the authorities' control over the general population in preparation for a transition to so-called civilian rule and to win the elections held under the new constitution," said Win Min.

The changes in government and the army will be the most dramatic since the military seized power more than 18 years ago. But they may be too late to stem the growing frustration in the country with the junta's failure to introduce political reform and improve the economy.

posted by cbs  # 19.3.07