Burma Update

Asia Times Online 24 January 2006

By Larry Jagan

BANGKOK - Myanmar's Prime Minister General Soe Win has returned from Beijing claiming relations between the two countries have now entered a new era. But despite that upbeat assessment, Beijing remains concerned that its Asian ally is potentially unstable and could endanger regional security.

In a statement released to the media soon after his arrival in Yangon on Saturday, Soe Win said Beijing strongly supported Yangon, and would oppose any attempts by the United States and Europe to have Myanmar placed on the United Nations Security Council's agenda.

Beijing rolled out the red carpet for the Myanmar leader during his four-day visit when he met with President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. Several significant agreements were also signed, strengthening bilateral economic ties, transfer of technology and increased aviation links.

"This visit was crucial for Myanmar's military leaders who are feeling increasingly isolated and under attack from the international community and growing pressure from its ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] neighbors," said independent Myanmar analyst Win Min, who is based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

The trip was originally planned for last year but postponed by China because of tensions between the two countries. At that time, Beijing was concerned about corruption involving Chinese projects, including the construction of a major container yard at Bhamo, a deep-sea port at Kyakphu, and the highway connecting the port, according to Asian diplomats in Yangon. Beijing was also frustrated by a perceived lack of cooperation by Myanmar in oil and gas exploration.

In the face of international sanctions, Yangon has become increasingly dependent on its neighbors for trade and political support. "We have good relations with all our neighbors and that is what is important, especially China, India and Thailand," Myanmar's Foreign Minister U Nyan Win said recently.

Over the past year, China has emerged as Yangon's most important ally, even though there were tensions. Recent important deals between Beijing and Yangon for oil and gas extraction rights in western Myanmar seem to have helped mend some of the problems between the two countries. A gas pipeline is to be built from the Indian Ocean to southwestern China's Yunnan province.

Security matters, economic ties and political support were all high on Soe Win's agenda while in China. "Among the issues discussed during Soe Win's visit to Beijing was non-traditional security concerns," said a Chinese diplomat. "Soe Win asked for help on how to manage NGOs."

Myanmar's military leaders have also been increasingly concerned about the role of international aid agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in their country. They recently drew up a new set of guidelines for international organizations and formed a special ministerial committee, headed by the minister for planning, to oversee their implementation.

Many diplomats in Yangon believe one of Soe Win's main concerns was to seek Chinese financial support to help the military regime overcome its mounting economic difficulties, intensified by the excessively expensive relocation of the country's administrative and military center from Yangon to Pyinmana, some 40 kilometers north.

"The junta is virtually bankrupt and needs Chinese financial support to help it overcome some of its immediate problems," said a Yangon- based Asian diplomat. They need more soft loans to help fund the infrastructural needs of the new capital, he said.

Many of the telecommunications for the new center, including the satellite and mobile-phone infrastructure, is already being provided by Beijing.

Soe Win appealed to his Chinese hosts to increase investment in Myanmar and proposed the establishment of two special economic zones, one in Yangon and the other centered on the new administrative capital, Pyinmana. The Myanmar government has promised to provide insurance cover for Chinese businesses in the country, according to a senior Chinese government official.

Myanmar's premier urged China's leaders and businessmen to increase their capital investment in Myanmar, start new projects to help build the country's economic capacity and step up transfer of technology. Soe Win told his hosts that Yangon was keen to have more Chinese technical experts.

Senior Chinese officials also discussed Myanmar's political reform during the visit. "As a neighboring country, China sincerely hopes that Myanmar can continue to push forward with reconciliation at home and realize economic development and social progress," Wen reportedly told his counterpart from Myanmar.

China has been disturbed by the lack of progress on the junta's seven- stage roadmap announced in August 2003 by the then prime minister, General Khin Nyunt. Beijing was also dismayed by the recent adjournment until the end of this year of the National Convention, which is drawing up a new constitution.

While China believes political reform is an internal matter for the Myanmar regime, it fears that excessive delays in the national- reconciliation process are only likely to increase instability in its southern neighbor.

China's leaders fear that social unrest in Myanmar would dramatically affect their southern provinces. More than 200,000 Chinese migrants have crossed into Myanmar in the past decade, according to senior Chinese officials. Some Western analysts believe there could be as many as a million Chinese now resident in Myanmar.

Most of them are there unofficially. They are running small businesses throughout northern Myanmar, Mandalay and even Yangon. Technical experts, workers and even farmers have migrated across the border in search of work. Many of the market sellers in the border region, especially in the border towns such as Mongla, are also Chinese.

China's main strategic concerns are to see Myanmar introduce political reform and boost economic development. "The last thing Beijing needs is thousands of Chinese migrants flooding back across the border, increasing the number of restless, unemployed Chinese peasants looking for work in the country's main urban centers and adding to China's growing social and rural unrest," Win Min said.

A senior Chinese official said: "China's leaders understand that the [Myanmar] military regime is illegitimate and lacks the support of the majority of the people."

But despite these reservations, Beijing has now decided that appearing publicly to support Yangon is the most effective way to maintain its influence in Myanmar.

During his visit, Soe Win appealed to the Chinese leaders to help ensure Myanmar did not get put on the Security Council agenda in the near future. He even asked Beijing to intercede on Yangon's behalf and enlist Russia's support on this issue as well.

China lost one of its main allies in Myanmar when the former intelligence chief and prime minister Khin Nyunt and his supporters were arrested and purged at the end of 2004. Since his fall, China has tried unsuccessfully to find another ally within the regime.

"Their greatest fear now is that Myanmar's second in command, General Maung Aye, who is seen as pro-India, may gain in influence," said a senior Asian diplomat in Yangon. "Any suggestion that he may take over from the country's main ruler General Than Shwe sends them into an apoplectic spin."

Yangon, anxious to balance its dependence on its neighbors, is keen to maintain good ties with Delhi. The generals hope the visit next month of Indian President Abdul Kalam to Myanmar - though largely symbolic - will help do just that.

(Inter Press Service)

HK Standard - Thursday, February 16, 2006

China has urged Burma, or Myanmar as it is also known, to step up efforts to fight drug-trafficking and warned of the dangers of the "flood" of narcotics crossing their common border.
Premier Wen Jiabao delivered the message to Burmese counterpart Soe Win, who is on a five-day visit, in Beijing Tuesday.

"At present the Sino-Myanmar border area is being flooded with drugs, posing a huge danger to the society and people," the China News Service quoted Wen as telling Soe Win Wednesday.

"We must pay much attention to this and adopt strict and punitive measures.

"The Chinese side hopes to strengthen with Myanmar bilateral and multilateral cooperation and sign an anti-drug cooperation agreement at an early date."

Burma is one of the world's biggest producers of opium, with the jungles that border China one of the prime growing areas.

Burma's military rulers, who took control of the country in 1962, have long been accused by some foreign governments of condoning the drug trade.

But Soe Win reportedly said he would cooperate with China to curb the scourge.

In 2004, Chinese police estimated that up to 80 percent of the 70 to 80 tonnes of heroin produced annually in Burma and nearby countries transited China en route to global markets.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE