Burma Update

Irrawaddy
July 2004 - By Aung Zaw


What role does Burma really play in Beijing’s policy plans?

Eleven bilateral agreements. A commitment to cooperate in the war on drugs and cross-frontier crime. And a large measure of mutual praise. Those were the official and much-publicized results of the week-long visit to China in mid-July by Burmese Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt.

GUEST OF HONOR Burma’s Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt (right) with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao during a welcoming ceremony on Tiananmen Square, in Beijing on July 12.

But a week is a long time in politics. Were the high-level talks confined to adding the finishing touches and signatures to documents on which the ink had probably already dried? Or were the wider and deeper issues attached to Burma’s role in China’s forward foreign policy planning addressed behind the heavy, ornate doors of Beijing’s palaces of power?

Central to China’s regional concerns is its very real interest in seeing a stable and economically viable Burmese state on its western frontiers. Some Chinese officials have openly linked stability to "democracy", and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue is on record as urging a "good internal and external environment for Myanmar’s [Burma’s] democratization".

Beijing’s concept of "democratization" doesn’t yet embrace an open acceptance of Burma’s opposition National League for Democracy, or NLD. The Chinese Embassy in Rangoon, for instance, keeps a demonstrative distance from the NLD.

Nor is there any open Chinese sympathy for the plight of its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, held under house arrest at her home outside Rangoon for more than a year. Yet Suu Kyi’s name appears regularly in Chinese media reports on Burmese developments.

Within Burma, critics of NLD policies call for greater efforts to forge ties between the Burmese opposition and China, arguing that such a strategy would undermine the military regime’s propagandistic claim that Suu Kyi is just a puppet of the West.

It can’t have escaped Beijing’s notice that Suu Kyi has never openly criticized China or its ties with Rangoon. Chinese foreign policy pundits must also be aware that Suu Kyi has also never expressed clearly pro-Western sentiments. Her aides describe her as a nationalist and maintain she would never, for instance, allow an American military presence in Burma—another source of comfort for Beijing.

Earlier this year, China’s vice prime minister, "iron lady" Wu Yi, urged the Rangoon government, during an official visit to Burma, to push the country’s political situation in a more positive direction. She told junta chairman Sr-Gen Than Shwe that Beijing wanted to see Burma consolidate economic development—and at the same time achieve political stability and national harmony.

Wu Yi's pragmatic political approach highlighted the differences in style between the Beijing and Rangoon leaderships—the Chinese power structure of autocrats, politicians and bureaucrats contrasting starkly with a Burmese executive system rooted in a rigidly military framework, built around inflexible men in uniform with little idea of economic and investment policies.

For Burmese observers, this goes a long way towards explaining the success of Chinese economic policies and the miserable state of affairs in Burma.

China’s interest in a stable Burma was clearly in evidence last year when it sent a delegation to the Thai-sponsored "Bangkok Process". Its stand on Burma is also being closely monitored in other regional and international arenas, particularly in its relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, and its work at the United Nations, whose special envoy Razali Ismail one year ago called directly on Beijing to help break political deadlock in Burma. Some dissidents even expect a Chinese abstention if a resolution calling for sanctions against Burma is ever put to a Security Council vote.

For now, national interests dictate Beijing’s stand on Burma, and these are principally economic and military-strategic.

Burma offers China a direct route to the Indian Ocean, and railroad and oil pipeline projects are under scrutiny in Beijing and Rangoon.

The oil pipeline would connect Kunming, capital of China’s southwestern Yunnan Province, and Sittwe on the Burmese coast, cutting 1,200 km from the present sea route between the Persian Gulf and China’s Guangdong Province, via the Straits of Malacca. More than 60 percent of China’s oil travels this route.

Relations between Burma and China haven’t always been this positive. They began well enough when in 1949 Burma became the first country outside the Communist bloc to recognize China. Rangoon still pursues a "one China" policy (a stand which won the thanks of President Hu Jintao during Khin Nyunt’s visit), despite the presence of 300 Taiwanese firms in Burma. Less than 20 years later, however, relations went into a tailspin.

The bad patch began in 1967, when thousands of Chinese demonstrated in Rangoon against a Ministry of Education decree banning students from wearing "unauthorized badges". The ban came at the height of the Cultural Revolution, when virtually all pro-regime Chinese—at home and abroad—sported Mao badges.

More than 1,300 Chinese residents of Rangoon were arrested during the demonstrations, sparking protests by the Chinese Embassy. Demonstrators turned their anger on the embassy and attacked the compound.

China claimed several hundred people were killed in the clashes. Official Burmese sources put the figure at 50.

The political consequences were grave. Diplomatic relations were effectively severed, Chinese aid programs were suspended, Chinese technicians working in Burma were recalled, young Burmese studying in China were ordered home.

The unrest—which some said was stirred up to divert attention from severe rice shortages—came one year after a visit to the United States by Burmese leader Ne Win. The visit, at the invitation of President Lyndon Johnson, rang alarm bells in Beijing, and Chinese party chairman Liu Shao-Chi and Foreign Minister Chen Yi flew to Rangoon with the reported purpose of trying to persuade Ne Win to cancel the trip.

Relations between Burma and China were paradoxically complicated by a generous aid program initiated by Beijing in the early 1960s. Former Deputy Prime Minister Kyaw Nyein, even though known for his pro-Western views, praised the Chinese aid, which came with no conditions attached. Some of the aid went to Rangoon’s greatest internal enemy, the Communist Party of Burma, or CPB, based along the China-Burma border.

Rangoon wasn’t at all happy to see Chinese armaments and military advisers bolstering the strength of the CPB. Beijing backed off in the face of a further setback to good relations with Rangoon, and support for the CPB dwindled from the 1980s onwards.

In 1989, a year after the military junta came to power, the CPB collapsed. Most of the ethnic groups born out of that split reached ceasefire agreements with the new regime.

In the same year, Rangoon gave tacit approval to the bloody suppression of dissident demonstrations in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square—a kind of reciprocal act for China’s disapproval of the 1988 democracy uprising in Burma.

In 1990, the first major shipment of arms and ammunition from China arrived in Rangoon. One year later, 11 Chinese-made F7 jet fighters were delivered, part of a billion dollar arms deal that included tanks, armored personnel carriers, naval patrol boats, anti-aircraft guns, missiles, light arms, ammunition and other military equipment.

There are reports that Rangoon has failed to meet the terms of the arms deal, and that China is refusing to provide new loans to the Rangoon regime. The Chinese reluctance to advance more financial aid to Burma is even being ascribed to American pressure on Bejing.

If that’s the case, and if additional American pressure can lead to a Chinese abstention in any UN Security Council vote on Burma, a new scenario emerges in the Burmese political stalemate. And the outlines of that scenario were undoubtedly apparent behind closed doors at the July talks in Beijing.


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By Jasbant Singh/Associated Press/Kuala Lumpur

July 16, 2004—Southeast Asian countries should do more to pressure Burma’s military regime to restore democracy and free Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from detention, the UNs special envoy to Burma said Friday.

Razali Ismail’s comments come as the UN steps up pressure on Burma’s fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, to do more to speed up democratic reforms the junta has promised to carry out but that appear to be languishing.

“The responsibility of the continuing situation [in Burma] more and more is beginning to rest on the shoulders of the countries in the region,” Razali told reporters Friday. “There will be no change in Burma unless and until the countries ... accept that responsibility.”

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan made similar remarks in a statement issued during a visit to Bangkok this week.

Razali, a former Malaysian diplomat, has for four years tried to end the political standoff in Burma. The pace of progress has been glacial, and suffered a big set back a year ago when Suu Kyi was arrested amid clashes between her supporters and the regime’s.

Suu Kyi’s detention—she is now under house arrest—prompted international outrage and a new round of sanctions against the regime, which insists she will be released when it is safe to do so and that an ongoing national convention that could lead to elections shows that its reform agenda is on track. Suu Kyi’s party has boycotted the convention because she is detained.

The issue of Burma has spilled over and is now causing wider problems between Asia and the outside world.

A summit of European and Asian leaders planned for October in Vietnam is in doubt because the European Union doesn’t want Burma to take part, and Asean members insist it should be allowed to.

Malaysia helped Burma to join Asean in 1997, arguing that a policy of “constructive engagement” would be more successful than international isolation. But senior officials have started showing signs of frustration at the lack of progress and the threat to the Asia-Europe meeting.

“We cannot allow Myanmar [Burma] to be an obstacle that stops us from sitting down [with European leaders] and achieving much more,” Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said on Thursday.

Razali said the problem of Burma “is already impacting on the interests of Asean” and said member governments “must do much more, and it must be effective.”

Razali did not say what measures Asean countries should take to bring about Suu Kyi’s release.
Razali said the junta has not told him when he would be allowed to visit Burma again. The military has ruled Burma since 1962. In 1991, Suu Kyi’s party overwhelming won elections, but the military refused to give up power.

Wednesday, July 14, 2004
NAILENE CHOU WIEST in Beijing

Relations between China and Myanmar are now under the spotlight because of concerns over the mainland's energy security and the need for shorter trade links from western hinterlands, analysts say.

Since energy security has jumped into the public consciousness, several alternative supply routes have been plotted to bypass the Strait of Malacca - through which 80 per cent of the mainland's supply of crude oil now passes.

The straits region is plagued by pirates, causing concerns over the security of oil supplies.
But some analysts are downplaying Myanmar as a potential route for crude oil or natural gas to the mainland, as too much depends on the country's political stability.

The mainland's development of its western regions has highlighted the need to find shorter routes through which to bring goods to world markets. The Irrawaddy River, running through Myanmar, provides a short cut from Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean.

Li Chenyang , director of Southeast Asian Studies at Yunnan University, said China's bilateral trade with Myanmar, though small in the context of total foreign trade, was important for the development of the regional economy in China's southwest.

He said China should move beyond importing natural resources from Myanmar to helping the country build its infrastructure for faster economic growth.

"Myanmar's overall economic development is beneficial for China," he said.

At the same time, increasing international pressure on Myanmar to improve its human rights record - and to release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi - is causing relations between China and its traditional ally to come under increased scrutiny.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue urged the international community to respect Myanmar's sovereignty and to foster a favourable environment for the gradual introduction of democratic reforms.

Myanmar's Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt is in China for a seven-day visit to boost economic ties and apprise China of his nation's progress in drafting a constitution.

Last month, China and Myanmar started a limited free trade pact under the Early Harvest Plan of the Asean-China Free Trade Area.

SCMP-Tuesday, July 13, 2004
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Beijing

Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday urged the visiting prime minister of Myanmar, General Khin Nyunt, to "accelerate political reconciliation and the democratic process", state media reported.
"China hopes Myanmar can promptly and properly tackle existing issues, and accelerate political reconciliation and the democratic process so as to step on a path to unity, stability, peace and development at an earlier date," Mr Wen was quoted by Xinhua as saying.
As a "neighbour and friend of Myanmar", China hoped the country could achieve "political stability, economic growth, national harmony and improved livelihood for the people", Mr Wen said.
But Mr Wen also said what happened in Myanmar was the country's own internal affair, arguing it should be up to the government and people to decide for themselves through consultations, according to Xinhua.

SCMP - Thursday, July 1, 2004

REUTERS
Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel peace laureate under house arrest in Myanmar, will be free to contest elections after a constitutional convention finishes its work, Indonesia's foreign minister said yesterday.

"Myanmar disclosed that once the convention is finished, Aung San Suu Kyi can participate in future elections," Hassan Wirajuda said at the conclusion of the Asean meeting.

He said Myanmese Foreign Minister Win Aung, in a briefing to his Asean colleagues, had not given a time frame for when the convention would finish.

The handpicked delegates to the convention have been ordered not to criticise the regime and have been given a strict daily regimen and dress code. Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy boycotted the convention and critics call it a sham.

Ms Suu Kyi has been under house arrest for 13 months.

scmp.com - Tuesday, June 29, 2004
ANDY CHENG

Updated at 2.22pm:
Hong Kong's last governor Chris Patten said on Tuesday the European Commission was anxious to help Myanmar achieve democracy.

Writing in the Tuesday edition of Singapore's Straits Times, Mr Patten said that the European Commission was also preparing to develop closer relations with Southeast Asia.

Mr Patten, currently an EU Commissioner for External Relations, said his days as a Hong Kong governor had broadened his understanding of Asia.

"Since a twist of political fate sent me to Hong Kong over 10 years ago, I have been fascinated by this region's rich diversity and economic dynamism. I am not alone. Asia has inspired Europeans through the ages and it is fair to say, vice versa.

"Nowadays, the EU and Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] are each other's third-largest trading partner, and the Trans-regional EU-Asean Trade Initiative [Treati] should improve this pleasing state of affairs still further. But, our relationship is based on more than trade, and rightly so," wrote Mr Patten.

He noted that Asia had become more democratic. "The spread and entrenchment of democracy and human rights is fundamental to the EU's thinking and its relations with others.

''But Asia also has its own champions in that struggle. India has again recently demonstrated its democratic credentials and there have been remarkable elections in Malaysia, South Korea and Cambodia,'' Mr Patten wrote.

"In a few days' time, Indonesians will go to the polls for the first direct presidential election just months after a peaceful parliamentary vote. The contrast with Ms Aung Sang Suu Kyi's unacceptable treatment at the hands of the junta in Myanmar couldn't be more stark."

Mr Patten is scheduled to attend this week's annual meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers and allies in Jakarta. He said Myanmar would be a focus of the discussions.

"I suspect one matter in particular will occupy a great deal of our time and collective frustration - the struggle for democracy in Myanmar. This is certainly an issue on which EU passions run high."

"Like Asean, we want to see democracy given a chance in Burma [Myanmar] and we are therefore prepared to take a bold stance in its defence."

Mr Patten was Hong Kong governor from 1992 until July 1997 when Hong Kong was returned to China.

He has said he would step down from the political stage as his term in his present job as the EU's external affairs commissioner runs out in November.

That would leave him with just one post in public life, as chancellor of Britain's Oxford University.

Mr Patten was governor during a tense period for Hong Kong, when relations with the mainland were strained over moves to democratise the former British colony.

Former Hong Kong and Macau Affairs director Lu Ping once described Mr Patten as "the sinner of a thousand generations".